Naffatron

73 posts

Naffatron

Naffatron

@MainManStrat

Katılım Kasım 2025
27 Takip Edilen3 Takipçiler
Blame Billionaires
Blame Billionaires@BilionaireBlame·
@Bjmac10Bjmac1 @curaffairs There’s no such thing as being “apolitical.” Trying to “avoid politics” is a political choice because you’re allowing the status quo to continue. You’re saying this current situation doesn’t need to change. It’s an inherently political decision.
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Naffatron
Naffatron@MainManStrat·
@P0ssumActual @bumbadum14 If they push at random its 50/50 by definition you could push the scale and save a bunch of people
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PossumActual
PossumActual@P0ssumActual·
@MainManStrat @bumbadum14 What about the 8 billion foreign browns that push red, or push at random because they don't understand the question? This is a problem of scale. There's different answers at different scales.
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bumbadum
bumbadum@bumbadum14·
Years ago I was in Vegas with my uncle and he wanted to show me his favorite game, craps. My uncle always bets the “dark side” because you’re essentially betting on the house. All the other people at the table would accuse him of “betting against them” and a few got so mad they left the table. This is essentially the red blue question. Blue pushers insist (because it is 100% moral signaling) that red pushers are immoral even though red pushers are acting within their own self interest at nobody’s detriment. This is also why blue button wins in the abstract description but always loses in the non-abstract description IE trolley example.
+ MachDominus +@MachDominus

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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86·
The viral framing of UAE’s OPEC exit is that Abu Dhabi will flood the market and crash the price. Read the pipeline math. The framing is wrong. The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which is UAE’s only crude bypass around the Strait of Hormuz, has nameplate capacity of one point five million barrels per day, expandable to one point eight million in surge. Lloyd’s List and Energy Intelligence both confirm the limit. In March 2026, with quotas suspended in everything but name and Hormuz throughput collapsed by Iranian enforcement, ADCOP utilization ran around seventy-one percent according to CNBC and Argus, leaving roughly four hundred forty thousand barrels per day of headroom. The second Jebel Dhanna to Fujairah pipeline that would add another one point five million remains pre-FID. No construction has started. Energy Intelligence dates the planning to October 2024 with a 2026 to 2027 operational target that has not been confirmed since. The UAE cannot flood the market. UAE can add roughly four hundred to seven hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026 against ADNOC’s five-million-barrel sustainable capacity target. The constraint is steel in the ground, not OPEC discipline. That constraint is what makes the OPEC exit interesting. If UAE could ramp two million barrels per day tomorrow, the OPEC exit would be a price-war declaration. Saudi Arabia would respond by flooding from its two-to-three-million-barrel spare capacity, Brent would crash through eighty dollars, and ADNOC’s revenue base would collapse along with everyone else’s. UAE knows this. The exit was timed precisely because Fujairah pipeline limits cap the ramp at exactly the level needed to monetize incremental headroom without triggering the response. The exit is calibrated, not aggressive. The exit is also not about oil at all. Mubadala holds approximately three hundred eighty-five billion in assets under management. ADQ holds another two hundred forty billion. ADIA holds approximately one trillion. MGX, which spun out of Mubadala and ADQ, made the largest sovereign-fund commitment to AI infrastructure in history, including the Stargate venture with OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank, and the forty-billion-dollar Aligned Data Centers acquisition. The Global AI Infrastructure Partnership with BlackRock and Microsoft passed one hundred billion in committed capital before April. Abu Dhabi is building the sovereign capital base for the AI infrastructure buildout, the way Riyadh built the sovereign capital base for the oil settlement system after the 1974 petrodollar arrangement. Same architecture. New commodity. The OPEC exit is the financing event, not the production event. Removing quota constraints lets ADNOC reprice the marginal barrel at full market value. The incremental revenue funds MGX deployments, Stargate phase one, the rare-earth and semiconductor partnerships, and the data-center expansion. The Fujairah pipeline limit is a feature, not a bug. It caps the production ramp at the level that maximizes revenue without triggering Saudi war. The capped ramp generates the cash flow. The cash flow capitalizes the AI franchise. The thesis falsifies if UAE accelerates the second Fujairah pipeline FID toward a three-million-barrel bypass that only makes sense as a price-war instrument, or if Saudi retaliates with a 2020-style production flood forcing UAE into defensive ramping. Abu Dhabi is not exiting OPEC to ramp oil. Abu Dhabi is exiting OPEC to liquidate the oil franchise into AI. The constraint is the calibration. The pipeline is the financing instrument. The exit is the strategy. The flood is the misread. The pivot is the trade. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
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Naffatron
Naffatron@MainManStrat·
@NeoptolemusX Interesting to represent an equivalence of 2% of an entire population of a continent entering it in a 15 year period look like an absolute invasion
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Neoptolemus
Neoptolemus@NeoptolemusX·
It’s one thing to see a graph saying, “12 million illegal migrants entered Europe since 2008.” It’s another thing to actually see it. Every blip in this animation represents 100 people.
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plasma ۞
plasma ۞@plasmarob·
@kane As an austrian, we can do better
plasma ۞ tweet media
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Naffatron
Naffatron@MainManStrat·
@KnowThyFulcrum @kane All these debates are truly over in the field of economics in practice.. we've had the data for nearing a century to verify our theories and now micro data to get to levels of granularity previous economists couldnt fathom.. wages are set at the marginal product of labor
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Naffatron
Naffatron@MainManStrat·
@PraxLemon @kane Price is the value of a product or service that brings the market into equilibrium.. baring market distortions on the supply and/or demand side.. if its too high, its not sold,market loses consumer surplus, of its too low,there will be deficits and potential producer surplus lost
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Lemonide 🐍🐧
Lemonide 🐍🐧@PraxLemon·
@kane "value is determined by cost" is perhaps the dumbest thing I've ever heard. It's unironically dumber than the LTV. Who do they think determines cost? God? They also think price is the independent variable (scarcity and preferences determines price), so they are beyond saving
Lemonide 🐍🐧 tweet media
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Byronic Heroine
Byronic Heroine@byronicgirl·
If you’re a poster on here, Grok can guess your IQ range pretty well apparently
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Naffatron
Naffatron@MainManStrat·
@DrAsifOfficial Hahah let me guess but you say "im as British as Churchill!" It is by the pleasure of western civilization you are tolerated.. your entire bloodlines ability to appease westerners is the basis for your existence.. the level of cognitive dissonance on these refugees truly stun
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Dr Asif Munaf
Dr Asif Munaf@DrAsifOfficial·
Khaleejis are just secular, cultural ethnonationalist capitalists with little regard for Islam Only because they speak Arabic, we mustn't assume they have gheerah for the deen Perpetually feeling inferior to the white master, the level of appeasement to the West is embarrassing
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Doc Strangelove
Doc Strangelove@DocStrangelove2·
@realjohnmanhunt It's kind of depressing that the advancement of human progression and creativity has bottlenecked into people asking a soulless husk if what they are seeing is true.
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Naffatron
Naffatron@MainManStrat·
@lporiginalg Why is this turning into a debate about capitalism or communism? MPL=W.. not rocket science
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محافظ🇮🇶
محافظ🇮🇶@alhootblue88·
@kuinku7 @EdyCohen نعم ذيو ل طهران لهم دور اقليمي و سينتهي بعد ان ينفذ ترا مب مخططه باسترجاع الكويت الى العراق
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إيدي كوهين אדי כהן 🇮🇱
للعلم الهدنة المؤقتة هي بين أمريكا وإيران. الحرب بين دول الخليج وايران مستمرة.
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Naffatron
Naffatron@MainManStrat·
@EdyCohen PLEASE WE BEG YOU ARABS NORMALIZE WITH US! SIGN THE ACCORDS WE BEG YOU!! Also them above.. what weird people
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إيدي كوهين אדי כהן 🇮🇱
يا خلايجة الماء مقابل النفط. قريبا النظام الإيراني سيدمر كل اماكن التحلية عندكم. فقط دولة إسرائيل يمكنها انقاذكم. اعطونا النفط نعطيكم الماء
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Lucian I
Lucian I@Lucio1994·
@MainManStrat @leankitjon @JMilly_18 @avidseries So what was the plan, take over Iran and stop oil flowing to China? Even ignoring the fact that the opposite has been achieved right now, that was never even a possibility anyway.
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Naffatron
Naffatron@MainManStrat·
@tradingjutsu @SonofLiberty357 @Osint613 2) removing this agitator will guarantee american dominance over the region for a century and allow us to leverage all our efforts against our real problem, China.. israel is totally irrelevant and a red herring being used by Chinese and Russian propaganda
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Naffatron
Naffatron@MainManStrat·
@tradingjutsu @SonofLiberty357 @Osint613 1)Sure.. Iran is a the channel in which China and Russia can exert influence over a critical region in the American Empire.. this thorn in our side responsible for why many of our wars and operations have go wrong is preventing us from moving on to the critical east Asian region
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Open Source Intel
Open Source Intel@Osint613·
Woke rights favorite influencer Nick Fuentes: “Pray for Iran, Iran is fighting for the whole world.” Nick is a Traitor to the U.S.
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