ManuCB

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ManuCB

@Manu_CB

Global Macro with an EM twist - 🇦🇷🇬🇧🇮🇹🇳🇱

London - Buenos Aires Katılım Ağustos 2012
448 Takip Edilen3.3K Takipçiler
ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
@CharlieTTEcon Indices in frontier mkts having higher goods/services ratio playing a part you reckon?
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Charlie Robertson
Charlie Robertson@CharlieTTEcon·
Frontier market inflation surging faster than emerging or developed markets, based on the small sample of countries with April data already out. It implies currency depreciation in the medium-term when we have eg, 11% inflation in Pakistan and 3% in Europe
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
i hadn't seen this level of confidence in bullsh*tting since my secondary school french exams
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
beware (source: Copilot)
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
@IyerC @ClausVistesen Agreed with the above, but even teams facing relegation eventually find a manager. Obviously, the context self-selects the candidate pool.
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IYER Ⓥ
IYER Ⓥ@IyerC·
@ClausVistesen They also dont have a diagnosis of the problems faced by the country let alone a plausible solution
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Claus Vistesen
Claus Vistesen@ClausVistesen·
The counterpoint on all those who think Starmer will get kicked out after the May locals is that none of the main contenders plausibly want to be PM right at this moment with an exogenous energy shock coming down the pike. Let Starmer own that too etc.
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Polemic Paine
Polemic Paine@PolemicTMM·
@Manu_CB Agree the if. But if if they invested well they could lower taxes even further!
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
@liberyeta @lucasllach @LucianoCohan no tengo idea a nivel academico, pero como practicante haciendo politica monetaria erro feo. En el diagnostico y consecuente voto en el comite y tambien en la lectura politica.
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Liberyeta
Liberyeta@liberyeta·
@lucasllach @LucianoCohan Yo la respeto mucho a Tenreyro pero votó en contra de subir tasas en UK entre 2022 y 2023 (2021 entiendo).
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Luciano Cohan
Luciano Cohan@LucianoCohan·
Bueno, salió el tema en los replies así que pregunto ¿Quiénes son hoy los mejores macroeconomistas argentinos por el mundo? Vale solamente gente que escriba/produzca activamente
Luciano Cohan@LucianoCohan

Argentina es una cantera de grandes macroeconomistas. No quiero mencionar a ninguno para no ofender a los no mencionados, pero está repleta la industria de análisis macro global de economistas argentinos. Totalmente sobrerrepresentados. Nuestra volatilidad única nos foguea para vivir en una generación, lo que economistas de otros países tienen que ir a buscar en los libros de historia. 1/n

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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
@PolemicTMM big if, my friend and even if they do, i'd rather they lower taxes than invest
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Polemic Paine
Polemic Paine@PolemicTMM·
@Manu_CB I don't care where they invest if it makes a healthy return over what they issue gilts at.
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
tough opening question and warsh walking into it seemingly unaware
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
@TheStalwart PEMEX binding constraint is investment
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Joe Weisenthal
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart·
*SHEINBAUM: CONSIDERING FRACKING TO ACHIEVE ENERGY SOVEREIGNTY
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
@MrMBrown yeah. But even for the usual standards seems quite shallow and unclear
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Michael Brown
Michael Brown@MrMBrown·
@Manu_CB no real change there then, par for the course for the MPC these days 🤦‍♂️
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
very poor comments from Greene. Contradictory at best.
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
and yet again
ManuCB@Manu_CB

@NGurushina i think it's entirely possible that there will be downside surprises, assuming the 2022 shock has increased the beta of expectations to supply side shocks in the energy market

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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
one of the key reasons for mandating central banks to target inflation...
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Dr. Diego
Dr. Diego@diegoeidan·
@Manu_CB Diez años en EEUU y no había aprendido cómo se dice en casa de herrero. Gracias!
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
in an ad-hoc conf call w/ CFO & IR of a telco their connection got dropped shoemaker's children go barefoot...
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ManuCB retweetledi
ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
@NGurushina i think it's entirely possible that there will be downside surprises, assuming the 2022 shock has increased the beta of expectations to supply side shocks in the energy market
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ManuCB
ManuCB@Manu_CB·
twice 🤣🤣🤣
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Keşfet

@CharlieTTEcon @IyerC @ClausVistesen @PolemicTMM @liberyeta @lucasllach @LucianoCohan @TheStalwart