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Mark Arbeter, CMT
6.6K posts
Mark Arbeter, CMT
@MarkArbeter
Technical consultant for Argus Research. Head Technician @ S&P for 20 yrs. Shortlisted as one of best technicians in '13. Newsletter info: [email protected]
Bucks & Bedford County, Pa. Katılım Mayıs 2013
555 Takip Edilen9.6K Takipçiler
How can they have massive excess returns when they are responsible for driving the $SPX
Finom Group@GroupFinom
Semiconductor Bubble, as defined by 2-years of excess returns. Shaded areas are defined Semiconductor (blue line) bubbles. Horizontal line details cycle peaks after lose momentum from 2-yr excess returns which comes after $SOXX +125% -150% returns, achieved as of June! Has the cycle peaked? Won't know for sure without hindsight, but seems unlikely even with the defined 2-yr excess returns. $SMH $SPX $SPY $QQQ $NDX $MU $NVDA $AMD $MRVL $INTC $COMPQ (NDR)
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Mark Arbeter, CMT retweetledi
BREAKING: LEBRON JAMES IS JOINING THE 76ERS, PER @ShamsCharania
BRON. MAXEY. BROWN. EMBIID.
WOW 🤯
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Mark Arbeter, CMT retweetledi
The rising cost of capital for companies today is starting to spook the stock market: ‘The worry is the spending might not pay off’ marketwatch.com/story/the-risi… via @MarketWatch
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$QQQ $SPX both at support. 500 holding triangle for now. 21D ROC on QQQ's negative. QQQ volume pretty light, not seeing clear distribution lately.
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A little Thursday Chart Porn: $TNX Leaving the COVID nonsense/ debacle off the monthly 10-year yield log chart, one could make the case that yields have been in an uptrend (bear market) since 2016.
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Whole curve. Wrote about 5-year $FVX breakout on @ArgusResearch Market Movers page today. Will be in my newsletter "On The Mark" this afternoon.
Venky Srinivasan 🇺🇸@sssvenky
30 Year Treasury Yield > Covid timeframe, even if shorter term. This will be a headline somewhere. Enjoy.
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$QQQ Log Chart. Long-term charts should be on a log scale. Anything else is chart comedy. Pretty consistent LT uptrend. Extended, yea, but nothing like the late 1990's. Trendline location always subjective unless horizontal!
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@nextbigtrade Long-term charts should be on a log scale. Extended, yea, but nothing close to the late 1990's. Pretty consistent uptrend.
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The Nasdaq 100 has led just about every cycle since the 2022 bear market ended, but now two of its main components, software and semis, are under a lot of selling pressure.
The recent move looks like a blowoff top. Wouldn't be surprised to see some cycles of underperformance after the recent move.
Traders using Stage Analysis will be better equipped to handle what is coming next, while those stuck with growth tech stocks are going to be looking for something to trade.
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@yuriymatso Why are you comparing #NASDAQ breadth data (meaningless) vs. the #NASDAQ100 #QQQ? The NASDAQ AD line has been going down for decades.
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@MarkArbeter the software required to monitor this many overlapping metrics is almost always incredibly hostile
just endless dense grids and tiny text
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$BTCUSD Bear flag to 21D EMA and roll. I talked about the lack of explosive volume during BTC's rally from March - May. Big upside volume seen as major BTC advances common. In addition, the COT data (also mentioned) has gotten progressively worse since the beginning of 2026 with the smart money commercial hedgers very bearish and the large speculators quite bullish. Also disturbing as the 2 parties do not work like this. Hedgers buy weakness, large specs short weakness. Not this time!
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Mark Arbeter, CMT retweetledi
Bullish strength confirmed by new highs for A-D line, Small Caps (IWM), Transportation (IYT), Industrial (XLI), Regional Banking (KRE), Real Estate (XLRE). See:
robertwcolby.com
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$MSTR & $BTCUSD Smaller tops turning into larger tops. Both at key support regions to say the obvious. $BTC chart support, 200-week, & 61.8% retrace $58,000/$60,000 region. MSTR $100/$105. According to Schwab site, 4 strong buys, 13 buys, 2 holds on MSTR. One might surmise "Street" has only way direction to go.
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$SMH Early here but many big moves end with one minor new high... last gasp. Most extended from 200D EMA (near 56%) recently since early 2000 when it hit 96%. So maybe we have a lot further to go. Heavy distribution of late? Moves like this can overcome daily momentum divergences. Something to watch. Everyone espousing the same Semi storyline.
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Mark Arbeter, CMT retweetledi
Mark Arbeter, CMT retweetledi
There are few other markets that so neatly comply to understanding using classical charting principles as Bitcoin (Schabacker, Edwards, Magee)
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$WTIC $80/barrel last support. 200-day just above $73 then back to where we started.
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Mark Arbeter, CMT retweetledi
BREAKING: SpaceX's IPO is expected to create 4,000 new millionaires, including some cafeteria workers whose compensation packages include employee stock options, per Bloomberg.
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Beginners draw diagonal boundaries usually connecting two lows. It is the most frequent and the most misleading.
That is why for all level chartists I'm suggesting to focus on horizontal boundaries that have several tests. They are rare, but more often valid technical levels.
Aksel Kibar, CMT@TechCharts
The success of your charting is not evaluated by its prediction or its capability of forecasting a move, it's success comes from the identification of a valid level recognized by market participants, that produces a directional move to profit from, once breached.
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