Mark Kahn

13.2K posts

Mark Kahn

Mark Kahn

@MarkKahn2

Katılım Mart 2014
49 Takip Edilen476 Takipçiler
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@EpsilonTheory Serious or parody, it highlights the flawed thinking that not only does every problem has a gov't answer, but every problem needs a gov't answer now. Families & businesses know you can only have so many priorities to be effective, why can't our gov't realize this: do less better.
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@ces921 My God I can't listen to him anymore. He has no shame, none at all.
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@chigrl Wow, that could be quite a problem. Herb Stein will have something to say about this one I'm guessing – laws can be changed quickly when necessary to the survival of the politicians – or Europe will enter a new Dark Age.
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Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
Exxon CEO Says Europe Climate Law Threatens Energy Imports Europe will start losing energy imports in 2027 when onerous new methane regulation comes into force, according to ExxonMobil Holdings Corp.’s Darren Woods. The chief executive officer is one of a number of critics of the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, a broad set of regulations that make net zero plans mandatory and apply outside Europe to companies’ entire global supply chains. Woods said nobody in the industry can meet the law as it stands. “They’re doubling down on what is some very bad policy,” Woods told CNBC. (Bloomberg)
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@BobEUnlimited @dampedspring I just tossed one of my 1000ish word notes in it and got back "100% of this text is human written" and felt good until I realize it probably is for the reason you said, mine is so amateurish AI would be ashamed to write it.
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Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott@BobEUnlimited·
@dampedspring fortunately my writing is so filled with grammatical flaws there is no way I could be confused for a smooth writing ai...
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Andy Constan
Andy Constan@dampedspring·
I am enjoying this new feature of scanning Substack for AI content. What's your breakeven for must NOT Read? A new one that's being sent around vs mine.
Andy Constan tweet mediaAndy Constan tweet media
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@BamaBonds Maybe, as you said, at least I'd need to dig into it as there are many angles. If rules and regs didn't make it so expensive to build middle-class housing, maybe building giant SDB for foreigners would be less appealing. As noted, many angles.
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Will Slaughter
Will Slaughter@BamaBonds·
@MarkKahn2 The influx of foreign or absentee money into absurd trophy properties (e.g the sprouting skinny ultratalls) distorts the housing & real estate markets while providing limited benefits to most everyday residents.
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Will Slaughter
Will Slaughter@BamaBonds·
Attention NYC pied-a-terre tax complainers. You are either an NYC resident or you are not. If you are an NYC resident, you should be paying NY state & NYC income taxes. If you aren't paying these, you will be paying the pied-a-terre tax. Choose one or the other, or shut up.
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@BamaBonds That's fair as I haven't studied it; I just did a surface analysis.
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Will Slaughter
Will Slaughter@BamaBonds·
@MarkKahn2 I think there is a reasonable debate be had as to whether NYC and other global cities (e.g. London) really benefit from having their residential housing markets used as a store of value for absentee ultrarich (oligarchs, oil sheiks, CCP princelings).
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@BamaBonds I didn't argue any of that; I'm just saying that owning a p-a-t as structured now is hardly a free lunch. I'd argue NYC wins as these owners pay property taxes & use less services than residents. Separately, no need to argue Zohran is a commie – he'll tell you just about as much.
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Will Slaughter
Will Slaughter@BamaBonds·
@MarkKahn2 Lots of states (notably deep red libertarian paradise Florida via its resident homestead exemption) have property tax schemes designed to soak non-resident property owners. The PAT tax makes Zohran as much of a communist as Ron DeSantis!
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
Managing the lightbulb inventory for my reasonably small two-bedroom apartment is an unbelievable time suck. If not for AI, I might have to hirer someone to help me (kidding). It is an amazingly complex process to line up the bulb with your fixture.
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@biancoresearch Great insights as always, Jim, thank you. One angle on this is that forward guidance pushed the uncertainty out to the forward guidance part of the equation and Warsh is returning the uncertainty to where it belongs, at the meeting that sets the rate itself.
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Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch·
The quote/chart from Bloomberg below is accurate. But keep in mind that from 1994 until Warsh, the Fed has operated under various forms of "forward guidance" (saying what you plan to do). That ended with Warsh starting with the June meeting ... and it is now front and center with this meeting. (I've been a critic of forward guidance as it has too often been viewed as a "promise" of future monetary policy, leading to over-speculation and moral hazards. So, I'm glad it is gone.) ---- Bloomberg: Since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2008, the Fed has never raised rates when swaps assigned less than a 60% probability to such a move. Looking further back using fed funds futures, Bank of America strategists found the central bank has never delivered a hike with market-implied odds below 60% since at least 1994.
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@DavidBahnsen "...Tepper was STILL mind-occupied by his lesser." Yes, and I don't think Tepper knows how small, how really small, this makes him look.
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David L. Bahnsen
David L. Bahnsen@DavidBahnsen·
So, what does one do with a story like this?? On one hand, you could read it and say, “yes! He showed him.” Or, you may just read it and think it reflects the pathology of many uber-successful hedge funders, and it does. But I read it and can’t help but think that Corzine won. That years and years after besting him, Tepper was STILL mind-occupied by his lesser. I just don’t get it. The people who wronged me in business who I later bested, I can’t even remember their names now. This whole thing just seems deeply distorted.
Nezuko@Nezukoa4

David Tepper says he bought and demolished the Hamptons mansion of his former Goldman Sachs boss, John Corzine, for $43.5 million to get revenge for years of humiliation. “I worked on the high-yield bond desk in the late ’80s. I was considered one of the best. Then I found out Corzine had passed me over for partnership yet again. I was absolutely devastated and humiliated” “Then came another rejection. And another. I kept thinking, ‘My God, I just can’t break through. It’s always another “no” from the people at the top” “In 1992, I left and founded Appaloosa. Within ten years, I had become a billionaire. And he was still there” “In 2010, I bought his old Hamptons mansion from his ex-wife for $43.5 million. I could have just lived in it. I said, No” “I tore it down completely and built a house twice the size. That was my way of settling the score for all those years of humiliation”

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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@CultishCreative @donnelly_brent Great not-essay; my take is I read less even though there is more out there because so much is mediocre. I don't have time to find the nugget. Oddly, I think brands – Panoptica, WSJ, or whatever you like – have an advantage: they find the nugget for you (if they're good at it).
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@dampedspring Yes to what you said, plus, it's so darn exhausting to have "that guy" at a meeting. Raising real objections and bringing opposing thoughts is one of the values of meetings, but to shoot the new boss' plan down in a dismissive attitude is passive-aggressive *ssholeness squared.
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Andy Constan
Andy Constan@dampedspring·
It's an interesting expression of close mindedness from Waller. He is close minded and can't learn from anyone. His close-mindedness is so strong that he assumes everyone else is close minded and can't evolve. His process has been objectively deeply flawed. He must think his process is perfect and its just been random outcomes or the fact that he's not in charge that has resulted in what has transpired Awful look from him.
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos

NEW: At dinner after day one of his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh told his 18 colleagues he was launching five task forces to rethink how the Fed reads the economy. Chris Waller asked what the point was. Name who's on them, he said, and I'll tell you what they'll say.

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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@pineconemacro I can't even listen to his comments anymore. I read them indirectly from people like you. And why are we even talking about this since didn't he tell us the war was won and the Strait of Hormuz open two or three months ago when he was going to wipe Iran off the face of the earth?
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@dampedspring Good point, but to be fair, a lot of that has to do with relative performance vs. active portfolio positioning — my guess anyway.
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Andy Constan
Andy Constan@dampedspring·
Are households interested in selling money market funds, treasuries, gold, munis, MBs, and all their other investments to add more equity? Or is all time highest allocation to equities enough?
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@cheese_breath @fiago7 If you don't have a six handle when you sleep, you're not using your A/C the right way. Penguins should be knocking on your bedroom door; then you know all is good in the world.
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CheeseBreath
CheeseBreath@cheese_breath·
@fiago7 My sheets are so nice and crispy cold right now. Had my husband crank it down to 72 degrees for the night.
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𝗙𝗜𝗔𝗚𝗢 🇩🇪
First night back in Germany from the US and I can‘t lie I‘m very close to buying A/C unit for my bedroom
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@dampedspring In the 3 decades I've been doing this, there has never once been a time when there was too little money on the sideline so clients should sell stocks & bonds to increase their liquidity. "Cash on the sideline" is pure Wall Street marketing and mainly marketing it sell to itself.
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Andy Constan
Andy Constan@dampedspring·
Cash held has grown as a million "cash on the sidelines" posts indicate. But this tells a pretty basic story
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@BobEUnlimited Bob, my trader take is that the real # in the market was different than the "consensus" # and the market before the release was much more upbeat about the stocks that beat and much more downbeat about the ones that didn't. Thoughts?
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@BobEUnlimited Excellent note. I love when real return #s are put around the "generational opportunity" theme that we are told to just shut up & believe. Also this: "People seem to love that shit," is LOL funny. It reads like a cranky Substack writer who earns his subscribers the hard way.
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Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott@BobEUnlimited·
Questioning Capex As free cash flow plummets, markets are increasingly questioning whether these hyperscalers will meet enormous capex assumptions ahead or generate revenue needed for it to pay off. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/questioning-…
Bob Elliott tweet media
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Mark Kahn
Mark Kahn@MarkKahn2·
@BamaBonds Agreed completely. Also, perhaps at a societal level, we shouldn't have reversed the gender bias. It's great we now treat girls /women better, but by telling boys/men how bad they are our social leaders created this disaster. They didn't eliminate, but flipped gender bias.
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