Market Junky

10.6K posts

Market Junky

Market Junky

@Market_Junky

Market commentary, Fanniegate, Glass House, Noble/Tidewater, junky takes, definitely not investment advice

Katılım Nisan 2017
389 Takip Edilen436 Takipçiler
Market Junky
Market Junky@Market_Junky·
Uncharacteristic FY26 guide down from $GLASF in a preannouncement. No attribution for why costs are moving that much higher. I’m confused
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Market Junky
Market Junky@Market_Junky·
@AlderLaneEggs $GLASF How soon do you think we could get an int’l hemp supply agreement?
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Marc Cohodes
Marc Cohodes@AlderLaneEggs·
I am free for a bit to do an Ask Me Anything so fire away, plenty going on
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Market Junky
Market Junky@Market_Junky·
@GlassHouseBR @grahamfarrar @kylekazanceo What commercial lanes are now open to Glass House? I'd think international cannabis shipping and interstate medical are now on the table - When could this start? Does this clear the path for $GLASF uplisting? I'm sure you're all still processing this but a press release outlining this would be very helpful
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Glass House Brands Inc.
Glass House Brands Inc.@GlassHouseBR·
We are excited with today's news rescheduling cannabis to a Schedule 3 Classification. This change makes common sense, acknowledging the beneficial medical and therapeutic properties of the cannabis plant and granting people greater access to find relief in more natural ways. We are prepared for anticipated new opportunities ahead. $GLASF
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Anthony Martinelli
Anthony Martinelli@AMartinelliWA·
Multiple sources close to President Trump tell us this is accurate and that a final ruling could come as soon as today or by the end of the week. axios.com/2026/04/22/tru…
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Market Junky
Market Junky@Market_Junky·
The god candle $GLASF
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Market Junky
Market Junky@Market_Junky·
“Will you get the rescheduling done please” -Trump $MSOS $GLASF
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Market Junky
Market Junky@Market_Junky·
Same here, but my basis is closer to 90 cents - I’m taking a big bath. I know GH management owns a lot of $GHBWF, so my hope is we get some traction on hemp sales by 1Q earnings. Would love for management to outline the hemp opportunity, and raise guidance to more accurately reflect what FY26 sales will be (ie. including GH4 contribution). I think the stock should be $20+ today with a more clear picture outlined by management. Obviously the raid didn’t help, and the S3 final rule can’t come soon enough. $GLASF @kylekazanceo @grahamfarrar @MarkVendetti1
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Market Junky
Market Junky@Market_Junky·
$GLASF $GHBWF warrant discussion on 4-20/Easter: I'm taking a bath on the warrants, and I know GH management owns a lot of them, so @kylekazanceo @grahamfarrar @MarkVendetti1 (happy Easter/4-20, guys) I wanted to give a shareholder's perspective on how I think we can realize value on these warrants by June 2026 expiration. There's a simple way to get the stock >$11.50 (warrant strike), and it's accelerating GH4 to a 1Q26 completion, ideally selling hemp. So GH2 ramps in 4Q25, and if you layer in a hemp GH4 ramp in 1Q26, you clear $100M+ in 2026 FCF, forcing the stock above the warrant strike (I think closer to $20 is reasonable). With 2026 guidance given in March, and your consistent track record of meeting/beating guidance, the stock can trade on 2026 expectations. @grahamfarrar Assuming everything works from a regulatory standpoint - Is 1Q26 for GH4 hemp even doable? I know investment is already being put into GH4 this year.
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Cassandra Unchained
Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburry·
Open Letter on Housing, Fannie & Freddie @realDonaldTrump @pulte @SecScottBessent @FHFA @USTreasury $fnma $FMCC We studied housing square footage per capita adequacy, and found that there is no problem there. The US in fact has more residential square footage per capita than any other country in the world. This is not a housing shortage, despite what so many say. The problem is that bigger houses are inefficiently housing fewer people. The post-COVID low rate environment locked people into a lifecycle real estate position. Empty nesters can't sell, first time home buyers cannot buy. Second-hand home inventory is near all-time lows due to record low supply, not record demand. Prices are high due to the same reason. Home equity is now a record $35 trillion, nearly doubling pre-COVID levels. 40% of homeowners own their homes free and clear - a record. And about 30% of all home buyers pay for homes without borrowing. Older homes were upgraded at a record pace during COVID, extending and refreshing the usefulness of residential real estate. Artificially low interest rates, ~$6-7 trillion in helicopter cash and forgivable loans helped drive both the home updates and high housing prices. Work from home moved the office into the home, often expensed or deductible. People with white collar jobs and means chose to live/work in exotic or remote locations. All of this together does not speak of a housing shortage, or a housing problem. Instead it is a problem of current residential space allocation and mobility, and this problem was created by government manipulation of interest rates, cash money supply, and COVID lockups that went on too long and changed work/home behavior. Government created the problem and now maintains policies that prevent free markets from reaching a solution, not the least of which is keeping the GSEs inefficiently run while in conservatorship. Recall Pulte's video upon arriving at Fannie Mae - no one was in the office buildings. The companies have become atherosclerotic, inefficient government programs, while a decade of financial engineering optimized for homeowner wealth accumulation rather than housing market velocity/mobility/fluidity. Government must fix this problem by facilitating efficient re-allocation of housing stock with higher housing velocity/mobility through the release of the GSEs into free markets. This is a problem made for the GSEs. Through well-targeted programs, the GSE can help the free market find spaces to intelligently reallocate , and help US citizens with housing mobility. Building more new overpriced, poorly built homes in increasingly dangerous flood zones and other hazardous fringe areas is not the solution. It adds to the problem through high maintenance burdens on new homeowners with little equity in their homes. Rather, to build mobility/velocity of homeowners and housing space, the GSEs need to be recapitalized and retain easy access to capital markets. They also need to be run by real mortgage executives, not government functionaries. To achieve this they need to exit conservatorship in a manner that excites markets to fund these companies, now with guidelines to prevent risk-taking outside of their purpose, and grow their purchases of mortgages of well-targeted specification. I should have written this into the Recurrence piece itself.
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Market Junky
Market Junky@Market_Junky·
@AlderLaneEggs respectfully disagree here. @aaronvalue is one of the highest character guys in the cannabis space, he was the one who initially got me into $GLASF in 2022. I’ve spoken with him on the phone, very high quality guy. Wish he was still vocal on $GLASF
Marc Cohodes@AlderLaneEggs

Anything @aaronvalue touches turns to Shit... He is a clowns... clown and is t qualified to sell Peanuts at the circus.. Fake as a $3 bill..

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Market Junky
Market Junky@Market_Junky·
$GLASF numbers looking pretty good. FY26 guidance at high-$40’s EBITDA sets the bar nicely, considering it excludes any non-US or hemp sales. This year is going to be fun. Well done @grahamfarrar @kylekazanceo @GlassHouseBR
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Market Junky
Market Junky@Market_Junky·
When the S3 final rule hits the federal register, I’m gonna go sit on a bench outside, which faces a beautiful pond with a fountain, and I’m going to listen to Clair de Lune, from the ocean’s 11 final scene. Schedule 3 means we’ve won, and the beauty is it’s just the start for $GLASF $MSOS
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