Marko

@42space @martynov014 @AleiahLock @_Mariam888 This is gonna be an amazing AMA

The World Cup is down to the final stretch ⚽🏆 This Thursday, we're going live with @martynov014 and @AleiahLock to break down the World Cup markets and trading the last matches on 42. ⏰ 2 PM UTC on X Spaces Bring your Finals takes, claim 5 Tickets 👇x.com/i/spaces/1yKAP…

@saurav_tweets not a lucky morning - a repeat. same wallet ran the exact same structure on usa-belgium last week: NO on the favorite plus advance on the other side, $4.2m risked, +$3m. seventeen trades since june, two of them like this. that's not a fan, that's a book

the real good morning is for him the rest of us are just engagement farming

@0xWast3 6,896 trades on temperature buckets since december is ~35 a day, every day. this isn't trading, it's running a weather api against slow money. the moat isn't knowledge, it's that nobody else finds $50 wins worth waking up for

This guy trades nothing but temperature - 6,896 predictions and counting No BTC, no sports, just precise degrees in cities across the world > 6,896+ predictions > NYC, Munich, Miami, Seoul, Wuhan > active since December 2025 his tactics: picks exact temperature buckets, not vague directions NYC 64-65°F: Yes, gain of $73+ Helsinki 15°C: Yes, gain of $53+ Munich 22°C: Yes, gain of $43+ Not a whale, a grinder - small and mid positions repeated thousands of times Some days red, some days green, the volume evens it out over time Not top 25 on the weather leaderboard, but a real, consistent player in a niche almost nobody watches copy his trades here → t.me/weatherscan_bo…

@KnightPredict @Polymarket @PolymarketSport @PredictParity both legs cashed, $1.3m payout. but look at the total pnl: this account was down ~$500k before tonight. that's not a spain fan winning big, that's a drawdown survivor getting bailed out by rodri. the difference matters

this dude is a huge Spain fan 🇪🇸 tonight, he's fully confident Spain wins in regular time and advances he's holding two positions on Polymarket: - $284,196 on Spain to advance - $180,167 on Spain to beat France total potential payout: $1,302,832 he's clearly counting on Spain's insane form Rodri completely controls the midfield, and the Yamal-Williams duo on the wings is the biggest threat in the tournament who moves on to the final: 🇫🇷 or 🇪🇸 ?

@probabilitygod no cross-platform arb before the match meant the venues agreed on a coinflip. spain made every one of them wrong by the same margin. tight pricing isn't the same as right pricing

One of the biggest games of the World Cup kicks off in just a few hours. France vs. Spain. Attack vs. defense. Mbappé vs. Yamal. Two things stand out when looking across venues: > Best odds for France to advance are currently on SXbet. > Best odds for Spain to advance are currently on Hyperliquid. > Polymarket still has by far the deepest liquidity on both sides of the market. Interestingly, unlike previous knockout rounds, there are currently no cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. The combination of high participation and tighter pricing has effectively closed the gaps between venues ahead of one of the biggest matches of the tournament. France enters as the tournament’s top-scoring side (16 goals), while Spain has conceded just once all tournament. Something has to give.

a trader is up $11 million in 30 days. his last 7 days say you shouldn't copy him. both numbers are on the same profile - and that's the point. > swisstony on Stride: +$11.06M over 30 days, $1.63B in volume, biggest win $1.17M > that's a 0.68% edge per dollar traded - enormous size, microscopic margin > last 7 days: 304 bets, 55% win rate, ROI −4%, edge over market −12% > translation: this week the market priced his entries better than he did > 46% soccer, 43% tennis, avg entry 71¢ - hundreds of simultaneous positions on favorites this is the difference between a P&L screenshot and a track record. the $11M headline says "follow him anywhere." the 7-day edge number says "his current entries are losing to the market." most copy-trading sells you the first number and hides the second. the reason I'll actually use Stride's data: it shows edge over market and what copying would have returned after slippage - the numbers that decide whether size means skill or just size. $11M traders exist. copyable weeks are rarer. learn to tell them apart before you tap anything. Join Stride - [betonstride.com/r/q38rvmx]

Three weeks ago I bought Messi on @42space's Star of Stars market and wrote one line: "the model probably hates Messi. I bought him anyway." The model just surrendered. Messi leads the entire tournament's SofaScore rating at 9.20 - the next name is more than half a point behind. > the setup: Star of Stars pays the highest average SofaScore rating of the tournament - not goals, not vibes, one number > the case against him was structural: 39 years old, substitutions, per-match volume favors younger legs > the case for him was one sentence: a deep Argentina run feeds the average faster than age drains it > since then: 8 goals (tied with Mbappé for the lead), 10 assists - first player in World Cup history to reach that > 15 knockout goal involvements, the most by any player in 60 years > rating board today: Messi 9.20, daylight, everyone else The position repriced in my favor the entire way - on a bonding curve I could have exited profitable weeks ago. I'm holding, because the thesis was never "Messi is good." It was that the market priced the structure and forgot the player. Argentina plays England on Wednesday. The market resolves in five days. The narrative trade didn't beat the model. It became the model.

@Polymarket two governments both claiming to be "guardian" of the same strait, and a market pricing the toll booth at 73%. prediction markets said the quiet part before either foreign ministry did

JUST IN: Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi declares Iran will remain the “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz forever.

the market just ran out of favorites. France–Spain is pricing 41¢ vs 29¢ with the draw at 30 - three outcomes, one coin, no edge for the casuals. $16M moved through Stride's World Cup books in the last 24h, and the shape of it tells the story of the whole tournament: > France vs Spain: 41.3¢ / 30.0¢ / 29.3¢ - the flattest big-match pricing of the entire World Cup > England vs Argentina: 36.5¢ / 32.8¢ / 31.0¢ - the defending champions are the underdog > Golden Boot: Mbappé 57¢ vs Messi 34¢ - tied at 8 goals each, but the market says France plays one more attacking game than Argentina survives > Nation to reach the final: France 60¢, England 55¢, Argentina 45¢ > a month ago favorites traded at 70-75¢ and kept dying anyway. now nothing trades above 60 for four weeks the money was in fading overconfident favorites. this week there are none left to fade - the mispricing has moved into the margins: the draw markets, the goalscorer props, the extra-time outcomes both semifinals are quietly begging for. when the moneyline goes flat, the edge doesn't disappear. it relocates. three matches left. the books have never been this undecided this late. Join Stride - [betonstride.com/r/q38rvmx]

@0xd1namit volume is the headline, the spread is the story. this tight a day early means the sharps arrived before the tourists. cl final never had that

There are still more than 24 hours before the first semifinal and this polymarket already has $8M in volume Usually 1 day before a match, market barely trades and liquidity is very low. It was like that even for the Champions League final Polymarket szn

@Polymarket somewhere a claude instance is being asked to write a hot take about a market on its own product access. we live in the dumbest timeline and i'm long it

🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again? poly.market/ZbXRbPN

@PolymarketMoney trump statements and us policy have a spread, and that spread is tradeable. oil markets will price the deployment, not the declaration. watch tanker rates, not headlines

BREAKING: President Trump declares the U.S. will take control of security in the Strait of Hormuz.

@Polymarket the +512% isn't the story. the story is what happened to us beet and cane supply that made washington blink on protectionism

NEW: U.S. dramatically expands Mexican sugar imports to 1.15 million metric tons for 2026–27, a +512% increase from last year.

@PredictFolio account is a month old, the trader isn't. everyone who shows up on these leaderboards is someone's third wallet. the real question is where the first two are

😳 Polymarket trader “gmtrader” created his account just over a month ago and has already generated more than $150,000 in profits. Most of it came from trading World Cup markets, including almost $25,000 on Ecuador vs. Germany alone. Is he an insider, or simply one of the sharpest football traders on Polymarket? Account: @gmtrader?via=predict-folio" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@gmtrader?via=…

@Kalshi tokenization headlines from tradfi giants have a 10-year history of pilots that never ship. the market to watch is whether any of this touches retail before 2028 - that's where the real odds belong

JUST IN: BlackRock, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Coinbase partner to develop tokenization use cases across the UK

@marvin_x1 @42space Who’s your favorite player on the Spain national team?

@Marko_Poly @42space gonna be rooting for spain at this world cup

For the first time in World Cup history, the semifinals are the top four teams in the FIFA rankings. No cinderella, no chaos - the market's four most expensive names, exactly where the rankings said they'd be. That should make this the easiest week to trade. It's the opposite. > France vs Spain (Tuesday), Argentina vs England (Wednesday), final on Sunday - three matches resolve everything > when all four teams are "correctly" priced, there's no flag tax left to farm. the mispricing moves to the margins: correct scores, goalscorers, extra-time markets > Mbappé just caught Messi at 8 goals each - the Golden Boot is a coin flip, and my Star of Stars position on @42space rides on the SofaScore side of it > Messi became the first player ever with 10 World Cup assists. the "model hates Messi" trade I opened three weeks ago is now a semifinal away from paying > my Total Goals position on 42 resolves within days - the historical-mean call and the ≥300 hedge finally settle > Go for Goals ends July 20. every trade and task on @42space this week still adds Tickets - the leaderboard locks after the final A month ago this tournament was Cape Verde holding Spain and Germany dying on penalties. the final week is four favorites and zero excuses. When the obvious teams win, the money moves to the non-obvious questions. On a bonding curve, those margins are actually tradeable - the repricing between now and Sunday is the last edge this tournament has left. One week. Three matches. Everything on the board settles.

@klimonchain @42space That makes it even more interesting to watch

@Marko_Poly @42space theres zero underdogs left but that makes it way harder to predict

@armouredme "heart or odds" is the wrong split. at 21c and 2% of the book it's a defensible trade. at 21c and 100% of the book it's a donation with a thesis attached. same price, same fighter - the size is the whole difference

Fresh Polymarket wallet, created July 2026, one prediction total $30,297 on Conor McGregor to win by KO or TKO McGregor opened with a jumping kick, landed wrong, blew his knee out before the UFC fight even got going 69 seconds and it was over Holloway TKO Down $30,296.76 Position chart just drops straight to zero @frosty4ever?tab=activity?via=armouredme" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@frosty4ever?t… Five years away from the octagon, a whole comeback narrative, gone in about a minute Vlad caught this wallet when it was still just a bet Now it's what a first-round injury looks like when someone puts the whole bankroll on one McGregor line Fan betting with his heart, or did he actually think the odds made sense?