Marko

> everyone called Polymarket a gambling site. > a crypto toy. > a legal liability. > @shayne_coplan called it the truth. > 2024 election: he was right and they were wrong. > FBI raid: dropped. > NYSE's parent: $2 billion in. > $9 billion valuation at 27. > the best founders don't argue with the room. > they wait for the scoreboard.

A war correspondent in Israel started getting death threats. Not from soldiers - from prediction market traders who stood to lose money if he corrected his reporting on a missile strike. Emanuel Fabian reported the messages: "you're going to make us lose $900,000. and we'll invest even more than that to finish you." The trader also listed details about Fabian's family. Polymarket banned the accounts. This is the part of betting on war nobody designed for. Nine anonymous accounts, created days before the first strikes on Iran, won 98% of 80+ bets on US military moves and netted $2.4 million. A US Army soldier was indicted for using classified information to place bets. Over $1 billion has been wagered on the conflict. When a market pays you to want the news to break a certain way, some people stop waiting for it to break - and start pushing.

@AleiahLock @almanac_market One of the most useful tools for PM traders

> This is the natural evolution Polymarket needed. > Raw prediction markets are powerful, but the real alpha has always been in speed of information synthesis. @almanac_market removes the noise and does the heavy lifting = cross-referencing on-chain flows, social heat, and historical resolution data in real time. > The real edge? For serious volume traders who qualify, this becomes an unfair advantage. > Most people trade on vibes. > Alma trades on structured, multi-source conviction. In a market where seconds and clarity win, having an always-on analyst that never sleeps is massive. > Alma isn’t just another bot. It’s the first serious AI co-pilot built for the prediction market meta.

@s1rozha_ @BitgetWallet A mobile app is the best way to get introduced to Polymarket

@Marko_Poly @BitgetWallet mobile-native polymarket access is the only path to real retail scale, desktop ui filtered out 90% of users

Prediction markets have one huge problem: most normal users never even reach the trade. Too many tabs. Too much wallet friction. Too much "where do I even start?" That’s why I’m testing @bitgetwallet Polymarket integration. The part that caught my attention most is the 5-minute BTC Prediction Market. Because this is where prediction markets stop feeling like “long-term forecasting” and start feeling like a real-time game of market intuition: BTC up or down Short window Fast decision Clean mobile flow No messy onboarding. No jumping between apps. No browser chaos. Just open the wallet → access prediction markets → choose BTC 5m → make a forecast from mobile. That’s the kind of UX that can actually bring prediction markets to normal crypto users. Not more hype. Less friction. I’m testing it here: web3.bitget.com/share/1mvker?i… What do you think is harder to price - BTC 5-minute moves or NBA title odds?

@kardinall @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade This is just the beginning. Only up from here.

@Marko_Poly @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade oh nice, never thought prediction markets would reach that level

This is the week prediction markets stopped being a crypto experiment and became financial infrastructure. Nobody noticed because the news came in five separate stories. JPMorgan sent 320,000 employees a compliance memo about not committing insider trading on Polymarket. You don't write insider trading rules for blackjack. NYSE's parent company finalized $2 billion into Polymarket - not as an investment in the platform, but as a deal to distribute its data to institutional traders. That's a Bloomberg terminal pricing model attached to crowd-sourced probability. Minnesota became the first state to criminalize prediction markets. The next day, the Trump administration sued Minnesota to overturn it. A federal agency now actively defends the platforms in court. Polymarket dropped its waitlist and went live on every iPhone in America. Four years after a CFTC ban. Three months after a $20B valuation round. And Kentucky's 4th district just held the most expensive House primary in US history. The price on Polymarket called the result two weeks before the polls did. None of these would have been thinkable in 2024. All five happened in the last nine days. The category isn't emerging anymore. It emerged while you were watching something else.

Prediction markets just became the most honest part of US foreign policy and nobody noticed. China refusing a Pentagon visit over a $14B Taiwan arms package is, on paper, a diplomatic story. On @Polymarket it's something else entirely: $10 million of trading volume on a single contract asking whether China invades Taiwan by year-end. Today's prices, straight from the platform: - China invades Taiwan by Sept 30: 8% - China invades Taiwan by Dec 31: 11% - US x China military clash before 2027: 9% - China x Japan military clash before 2027: 16% Here's the part that bothers me: 11% is the price the market is paying right now to bet on Chinese invasion before December. That's not a tail. that's a probability no government would publish in any official assessment, sitting in plain view on a Polymarket page anyone can open. We built a system where market prices update faster than the official line does. When China refuses a Pentagon visit, those four numbers reprice before any spokesperson is on camera.

@s1rozha_ @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade facts

@Marko_Poly @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade prediction markets repricing faster than state department briefings is the cleanest information asymmetry of our era

@0xbobaaa @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Only traders notice

@Marko_Poly @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade polymarket shows everything from an angle nobody's even noticing

@Bambardini @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade For now, yeah. But I think once bigger wallets start coming in, everything could change.

@Marko_Poly @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade prediction markets unvarnished risk gauge

@0xfablo @Polymarket @PolymarketMoney @PolymarketTrade Well said

840 wallets out of 2.5 million take more than half of Polymarket's profits. That's 0.033%. Roughly the same concentration as professional poker, options trading, or any market where information asymmetry matters. The difference: on @Polymarket , the rules and positions of those 840 wallets are public. You can see exactly what they're doing. Nobody on Wall Street has ever let you do that.

@Beloolisah @kreoapp raise payouts for your partners so they don’t run around like broke beggars spamming their ref links

@Marko_Poly Kreo automates copying proven winners like tourists instantly, with smart tools, instead of manually grinding tail-risk premiums. t.me/KreoPolyBot?st…

A Polymarket account that funded with $10 last May is now sitting on $313,000 profit. It didn't get there by picking winners. Look at the active positions: NO on a hantavirus pandemic at 94¢. NO on a US nuclear strike at 99¢. NO on Iran doing something at 99¢. NO on Strait of Hormuz closing at 99¢. He's not predicting. he's selling tail insurance to people who think they're being smart. 32 active positions. 67% win rate. one year. Profile: @tourists?r=markopoly" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@tourists?r=ma…

@antpalkin That’s a genius move

@Marko_Poly turn the money for a cup of coffee into a check for a 5-bedroom house a solid move

@kiruwaaaaaa @Polymarket I don’t think regulators are stepping in anytime soon

AI bubble crash by december 2026? @polymarket gives it 21% market: polymarket.com/event/ai-bubbl… dug into the $2.84M market - for a crash you need at least 3 out of 6 triggers within 90 days: > NVIDIA -50% from ATH ($235 → $118) > H100 rental drops to $1/hour for 5 days > OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy > OpenAI acquisition > SOXX -40% from ATH > TSM/ASML/AVGO/ANET/SMCI -50% reality in may 2026: > NVIDIA is trading at $222, ATH was $235 just days ago - nowhere near a crash. P/E ratio sits at 45.39 > H100 rental $1.49-$6.98/hour, median ~$3, in april rose 40% due to shortage > Anthropic raising a round at $900-950B valuation (x15 growth in 14 months) > OpenAI doing $25B annual revenue with $14B loss in 2026, IPO in Q4 why this isnt dot-com 2.0: - 2000: 93% of companies unprofitable, zero revenue - 2026: AWS $33B/quarter, Azure $31B, GCP $15B - real cash flow, 20-40% YoY growth - datacenter utilization 80%, vacancies near zero - hyperscale capex $670B+ in 2026 but: > OpenAI burns $150M/day, infrastructure commitments $600B over 5 years > Nasdaq 4.5x above dot-com peak, S&P P/E ~23x - most stretched since 2000 the trade: > 21% is an overpriced crash risk - not a single trigger is close to firing. short yes or long no until macro shocks hit > critical window: september-december (90-day period for triggers) but if regulators step in or the Fed hikes aggressively - everything changes in a week

@antpalkin Soon, humans are gonna lose to bots completely in finance

The biggest mismatch in finance: 92% of institutional volume runs through algorithms. Only 45% of retail does. That gap is why 89% of you lost money in 2026. You weren't trading against humans. You were trading against bots running 24/7. Horizon puts you on the other side.