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@Marko_Poly

@Polymarket researcher Geopolitics enthusiast Degen

Prediction Markets Katılım Temmuz 2022
481 Takip Edilen3.2K Takipçiler
Marko
Marko@Marko_Poly·
Insider on the Hungarian elections I found a wallet that bought over $650,000 worth of shares betting that Peter Magyar will become the next Prime Minister of Hungary. You might say it’s just a whale aping into the election market. But why would a whale enter the same market from three different accounts? First - those accounts had no prior activity. Completely inactive until this moment. Second - he bought in at market with large size. Regular prediction market traders usually place limit orders to avoid getting wrecked on the spread. Third - all three accounts were funded from the same wallet, using the same Solana network. Also, the accounts were clearly prepped in advance: > one registered 6 months ago > another 2 months ago > the third just 2 weeks ago And they all follow the same behavior and markets. Right now, his total PnL across the three accounts is +$60,000 in just a couple of weeks. I’m pretty convinced this is an insider with access to real info inside Hungary - I don’t buy the coincidence narrative. Btw, across all his accounts he’s sitting on $2,000,000+ total balance, so it looks like he’s getting ready to size up his position. Below are all the wallets so you can DYOR: Funding wallet: 9ZmPJRkjmpmYT9qbZjqgTKEcZBJj8WVL1ukDu7TdJNoo Trading wallets: 1.ares.pro/wallets/0x0a59… 2.ares.pro/wallets/0x4b28… 3.ares.pro/wallets/0x0a59…
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ARES@arespro·
⚡ Auto-Redeem on copy trading! Now you can turn on auto-redeem and recycle capital immediately to continue trade and make profits. Copy trading on Ares NOW! ares.pro/predictions/co…
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Marko@Marko_Poly·
This wallet put $963,000 on a single political thesis and made $80,226 in one month. trevors4 joined in March 2026 and has made just 14 trades. The idea is simple: Iran won’t escalate before March 31. Every position is just a variation of the same bet: > US troops entering Iran - NO at 71.4¢ · 230,000 shares > Regime collapse in Iran - NO at 96.4¢ · 203,000 shares > Netanyahu stepping down - NO at 96.5¢ · 189,000 shares > US–Iran ceasefire - NO at 75.2¢ · 260,000 shares Buying NO at 71–96¢ doesn’t look that attractive at first. That’s only 4–29¢ per share. But: > 200,000 shares × 4¢ = $8,000 > 200,000 shares × 25¢ = $50,000 The math works when you have size. Closed positions back it up: US troops entering Iran before March 14 NO at 97.2¢ - 365,477 shares Result: nothing happened +$10,239 US–Iran ceasefire before March 15 NO at 94.5¢ - 187,241 shares +$8,650 He was right 12 out of 14 times. The two losses were on YES positions - bets on escalation. He stopped doing that. Now he does one thing: He bets that nothing changes, and pulls 3–5% a month on $963K just by being right. His wallet is public - you can check all the trades on Ares:ares.pro/wallets/0x8489… Anyone can watch it. Anyone can copy it.
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ARES@arespro·
Best filter to find high-signal sports traders to copy trade: 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟭 — Sort by PNL, Weekly Rank & Category (e.g. NFL) 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟮 — Look for stable upward rank movement (<30 rank change) 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟯 — Apply these signal filters: → Wallet age: < 3 months → Win rate: > 80% → Avg trade size: > $1K → Total volume: > $2M → Focused on 1–2 categories only → Sizable USDC balance Example of an elite sports wallet to copy trade: ares.pro/wallets/0xdb27… ✅ Rank moved only 5 positions ✅ 9 months old ✅ 90.8% win rate ✅ $1.47K avg trade ✅ $212M total volume ✅ Sports/Game markets only ✅ $5.65M PNL ✅ 1.47M USDC balance
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Marko@Marko_Poly·
This guy has been consistently “printing” money on weather markets all month. Trader RamsBR this month: - 6,467 trades - 74.6% win rate - +$1,519 profit Every trade follows the same setup: - Buys a specific temperature range at 11–20¢ - Based on NOAA data, real probability is ~35–45% - Market prices it at ~15% - He captures the gap Examples: - Sao Paulo 32°C → YES at 14.1¢ → +$154 - Toronto 7°C+ → YES at 11.3¢ → +$150 - Buenos Aires 28°C → YES at 14.8¢ → +$143 - Paris 14°C → YES at 15.4¢ → +$137 He’s not "watching the weather". He’s running a script that checks NOAA forecasts vs Polymarket odds every few minutes. When the gap is big enough - it enters automatically. The question is: can you copy this without building the script yourself? Yes. I’ve been copying wallets like this for 3 weeks via @arespro You just: - Hit Copy Trade - Every time he enters - you’re in automatically You don’t need to understand weather markets. You don’t need to check NOAA. You just follow someone who already built and automated the whole system. His public wallet: ares.pro/wallets/0x5368…
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Marko@Marko_Poly·
US insider or just a big troll on @Polymarket ? Four days ago, this trader put $34,000 on the US sending troops into Iran before the 31st. All entries were limit orders, and now-four days later-he’s sitting at a solid loss. I got curious who this wallet might belong to. Dug into it a bit and found links to a Kraken account. Kraken is mostly used by US users, so chances are this trader is American. The wallet is also connected to some major crypto whales, which raises questions-could he have ties to US insiders? Or maybe he’s just trolling. Why? His profile name is "gulliver" - a reference to Gulliver’s Travels, a book that satirizes politics and society. So this could be a move to mock both politics and prediction market traders. Either way, this is a wallet worth watching to see if he ends up being right by the end of March. If you want to find wallets like this or copy their trades, use @arespro : ares.pro/invite/marko_p…
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ARES@arespro·
Invites are going out 👀 The Ares VIP Trader Program is live and spots are filling fast. DM us on TG or Discord before it's too late. More to come...
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Marko@Marko_Poly·
How a trader made +$8,000 on the Oscars Take a look at his positions: Will Sinners win Best Cinematography? YES at 31.9¢ · 11,999 shares now: 100¢ value: $11,999 +$8,166 (+213%) While the market priced Sinners at 31%, he loaded up 12K shares. That’s not luck - that’s a high-conviction bet. Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director? YES at 92¢ · 6,000 shares now: 100¢ +$480 (+8.7%) 92¢ means he entered when the outcome was already almost obvious. He just captured the last 8¢ of "certainty" - low risk, near-guaranteed profit. Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress? YES at 97.8¢ · 1,999 shares +$43 (+2.23%) Same play. Entering nearly resolved markets just to capture the spread. But the real trade is cinematography: 31.9¢ → 100¢ +213% on 12K shares Someone looked at the awards season, looked at Polymarket pricing,saw a 68-point gap between what the market said and what the data suggested-and dropped $3,800. Now it’s $11,999. $23.8K in active positions. Equity curve - basically a straight line up since January. I’ve been auto-copying wallets like this for 3 weeks now. Set it up once, and it mirrors every trade in real time. You don’t even think about it. t.me/poly_copytrade…
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Marko@Marko_Poly·
Change the way you think about prediction markets. - Mean-variance optimization is just a tool. The optimizer simply trusts your inputs. If your return forecasts are noisy, the portfolio will be even noisier. - The efficient frontier is more useful as a way of thinking. It shows the range of possible choices and the real risk/return trade-offs. - The biggest issue is expected returns. Small changes in forecasts can completely reshape the "optimal" weights. - Correlations matter more than most people think. They’re what actually create diversification - not just the number of assets in a portfolio. - In practice, robustness > mathematical optimality. It’s better to have a portfolio that holds up across different scenarios than a "perfect" one built on a single set of assumptions. If you don’t want to lose everything on prediction markets, you should probably read this article.
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Aleiah@AleiahLock

x.com/i/article/2031…

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Marko@Marko_Poly·
This isn’t a trader - it’s a machine. - Four months of active trading on @Polymarket - 34,951 trades - 93.3% win rate - +$2.1M PnL 93.3% success out of 34,951 trades - statistically impossible for a human. Check out the activity log: - Nuggets vs Lakers · Lakers · 19h ago · +$1.70 - Nuggets vs Lakers · Lakers · 19h ago · +$199.22 - Nuggets vs Lakers · Lakers · 19h ago · +$4.60 - Nuggets vs Lakers · Lakers · 19h ago · +$6,792.36 - Nuggets vs Lakers · Lakers · 19h ago · +$127.07 Same game, different bet sizes, 10 times in a row. It’s not a person choosing position sizes - it’s an algorithm splitting entries via iceberg execution. Closed positions speak for themselves: - Nuggets vs Warriors · $0.316 → +$447K (+215%) - Nets vs Jazz · $0.430 → +$433K (+132%) - Timberwolves vs Clippers · $0.538 → +$412K (+85%) It’s not predicting winners. It enters at $0.21–$0.54 and exits at $0.99. Meaning it “knows” the result before the market even closes. Edge comes from live sports data - or it’s tracking whale wallets 2 seconds before the event ends. Either way, the result is the same: $98,746 in a single day while you were asleep. I’ve been auto-copying this wallet since last week. Every time it enters - I enter too, same market, same direction, smaller size. I don’t think about it. I don’t watch the games. I just follow the machine. Wallet: 0xbddf61af533ff524d27154e589d2d7a81510c684 If you wanna auto-copy this wallet: t.me/poly_copytrade…
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Marko@Marko_Poly·
The best trader on the 15-minute BTC market He’s made 9,600 predictions with an 83.6% win rate - that’s an insane stat In less than a month he’s pulled +$15,730, with the avg trade making him about $417 Here’s what’s interesting: - The market reprices every 5 minutes. - Most traders are trying to predict short-term BTC volatility. - But this trader isn’t predicting the BTC price. - He’s predicting that most traders will be wrong over the next 5 minutes. So what does his strategy look like? - Turns out he’s right 83.6% of the time. - $479,123 - total wins - $91,464 - total losses - Profit factor: 5.2 - Just today: +$947 before noon. The equity curve is almost a straight line up. No drawdowns. No lucky spikes. His wallet: ares.pro/wallets/0x5b87…
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Marko@Marko_Poly·
One of my followers built software that prints money on prediction markets - specifically the tech ones. What did he do? He set up monitoring for GitHub repos of all the major AI models, and he’s also tracking all their socials - from official blogs to X accounts - in real time. On top of that, he added alerts and a market parser for whatever markets are currently open. From his latest trades, he made: - Apple: +$10,080 - NVIDIA: +$4,564 - Apple: +$3,177 - NVIDIA: +$340 And he’s only just getting started. He didn’t want to share the software, but you can copy his trades: Wallet: 0xbb4d5bff2f5b15f10b634598843d400a04aa7001 App for tracking & copy trading: ratio.you/r/X3BMXQ2D Or you can build similar monitoring software yourself - and spend a ton of time doing it.
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Marko@Marko_Poly·
My friend found a wallet that’s quietly printing money on DeepSeek markets. He put $12.9K into DeepSeek positions and is already up +$2,700 in just a week. Almost nobody’s tracking this wallet yet, but the strategy is simple: DeepSeek V4 released by March 15 - NO at an avg entry of 84.1¢, now 99.2¢ Position $6,660 · +$1,015 · +17.99% DeepSeek V4 released by March 31 - NO at an avg entry of 51.6¢, now 74.5¢ Position $6,279 · +$1,928 · +44.34% He’s not trying to predict AI releases. He’s betting that overhyped timelines don’t ship on time. DeepSeek V4 didn’t drop by March 15 = the market priced that in at 84¢. He saw it earlier, and that’s not luck. This is someone who understands how AI release cycles actually work - not how Polymarket traders think they work. What hooked me was the equity curve: slow, steady growth with no big drawdowns, then it accelerates near the end. What am I gonna do with this wallet? Of course - copy it. - Wallet address: 0x0d5e729817c3ca9aac9a305e616dacd56a6626ef - Copy-trading app: ratio.you/r/X3BMXQ2D A lot of people will ignore him and say "too few trades", but by the time his PnL hits six figures, it’ll already be too late
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Marko@Marko_Poly·
Now you can trade prediction markets and follow the news all in one place. Ares added a news feed where you can pick the sources you like. A lot of services charge for that - @arespro made it completely free. Join here: ares.pro/invite/marko_p…
ARES@arespro

⚡️Introducing Ares News Feed: Add high-signal X accounts to your timeline to see relevant prediction markets for every tweet and trade instantly. Comment below which accounts we should add as defaults 👇

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Marko@Marko_Poly·
I don’t predict the weather - I just copy the guy who does Two months ago I found a wallet on Polymarket that turned $500 into $10,000 on a weather market. One of his trades was +60,000%. I spent a few days figuring out what he’s actually looking at. He basically tracks the NOAA 7-day forecast. When NOAA says there’s an 80% chance of rain and @Polymarket traders are pricing it at 45%, someone’s wrong - and this wallet finds that gap every single time. Here’s how I set up the copy: - Opened Ares ( ares.pro/invite/marko_p… ) - Pasted the wallet address 0x5f211a24da4c005d9438a1ea269673b85ed0b376 - Turned on auto-copy - Set max position size to 3% of bankroll That’s it - took like 5 minutes, and meanwhile: - I don’t open TradingView - I don’t check NOAA myself - I don’t understand half the markets he trades I just copy the wallet and collect. Just don’t forget to set the "Weather" category in copy trading so it doesn’t mirror his trades on other markets. Three things that actually matter: - Reaction speed - @arespro executes faster than manual, so you get basically the same entry he does - Wallet selection - most copy trading fails because people follow the wrong wallet. Look for someone with 50+ trades, not 5 - Sizing - never go full size on copy. 0.5x means you survive the losing streak that will happen Most people will read this and do nothing - and honestly, that’s better for the rest of us
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