MAKE PEACE NOT WAR

Michael Asgedom, from Adwa said “Pretoria agreement is 💯 void “ Yes for TPLF who led by Issayas 🇪🇷Pretoria agreement is considered void from the moment it was signed. but it remains the only viable path forward. TPLF must go to sawa 🇪🇷

A U.S.-based Adwa TPLF,Cadre Michael Kasahun or his fb account name Micky Tigray has posted statements on FB that are deeply troubling . The post suggesting that people with different political views could have had “seven generations exterminated,” 1/4

This X-TPLF Cadre is a Manifestation of Political Terrorism that openly denies an Ethiopian citizen the right to go and live wherever they wants, And he threatens that the only choice for the youth of Tigray is to give their lives as loyal servants of Britual Empire of War lords

While global attention is fixated on the war in the Middle East, and some of us are focused on Ramadan, here are some less-reported yet significant developments in Ethiopia. • You might recall that the federal government moved much of its military to the northern theater with the aim of “neutralizing” the Tigray/Eritrea threat. Yet, the war has not broken out, primarily due to the outbreak of fighting in the Middle East. However, claims by some diplomats that the army has been withdrawn from the Tigray border and redeployed to Amhara are not accurate. The army remains positioned along the Tigray and Eritrea borders (Afar and Humera). Field commanders have been instructed to maintain battle readiness to launch offensive as soon as the Middle East situation clears. In the mean time, the prolonged reduction of ENDF deployment in Oromia and Amhara is being effectively exploited by rebel movements in both regions. • Fano has delivered severe blows to regime forces in Amhara, overrunning several towns in Gonder, capturing hundreds of regional paramilitary personnel, militia members, and civilian government administrators. Several senior commanders of the former regional special police force are among those killed. Much of Gondar has fallen under Fano control. Fano’s latest campaign is significant for two reasons: a) Despite the regional security office training and deploying over 100,000 paratroopers and militia to fill the vacuum left by the ENDF’s departure, Fano has managed to overrun these forces, killing a number of reputed senior commanders. This suggests either a serious lack of motivation or significant infiltration of government forces by Fano. In short, it appears much of the regional security forces’ loyalty may not lie with the government but rather with the rebels. b) The campaign clearly signals continued expansion of the battlefield further south, rather than toward Tigray/Eritrea as envisioned by Abiy Ahmed. In related news, senior leaders of the Amhara Prosperity Party, including the Deputy Prime Minister, are reportedly planning to stand for election in the regional capital, Bahir Dar, rather than in their traditional rural constituencies where they previously contested elections. - In Oromia, the OLA has also continued attacks against regional security militia forces deployed to fill the vacuum left by the ENDF, forcing the government to resort to intensified air bombardments using drones and helicopter gunships. Notably, these airstrikes are being carried out within a 100 km radius of the capital, particularly in East Shewa and North Shewa zones. For instance, as many as 30 air attacks have been conducted in Adami Tulu woreda of East Shewa in the past week alone. What prompted Abiy barrage of air attack? Over the last year, the OLA has been moving much of its fighters and battle tested commanders from Western and Southern provinces to Shewa and Arsi zones, silently strengthening its position in the strategic central Oromia. Thus, they are not only taking full advantage of vacuum left by ENDF to rout regional security forces, but also fortifying their positions in central Oromia not to be dislodged even when ENDF return in full force to Central region. The government wants to prevent such fortification but air bombardment without being reinforced with ground operation might not be sufficient deterrence. The two rebel movements’ continued success in overpowering regional security forces in Amhara and Oromia will force the federal government to make a choice regarding the planned war against Tigray/Eritrea: either redeploy the ENDF back to the two regions to contain the rebels, or proceed with launching the offensive against Tigray/Eritrea in the hope of a quick victory. As the Middle East war prolongs, waiting further for its outcome may no longer be an option.