Mars Canals

@KeystoneObsrvr @varadmehta This. They legally can't charge tolls on open waterways. They are free to operate like Somali pirates, I guess. But will the world really tolerate that from a weakened regime that has no navy, air force, or meaningful air defence system? Not in the long term

@varadmehta My question is - what exactly is Iran going to do (assuming a ceasefire takes hold) the moment one of the big unscrupulous Greek shipping magnates says “no thanks” and goes without paying tolls. They gonna start shooting at them and risk things kicking off en masse again?

Is this more "stuff I made up"? Does it matter if Oman says no tolls if Iran insists it's going to charge them? This is clear as mud.

@justluciano @AustenJ248855 @RSA_Observer @DouthatNYT What do you call it when your top 250 leaders are killed, your navy is sent to the bottom of the ocean, your air force is completely obliterated, your air defences are rendered useless, and almost every munitions factory is blown up? Sure, Iran "won" lol

@AustenJ248855 @RSA_Observer @DouthatNYT In my line of work we call that losing a war

Just a comment on the limits of Suez analogies here. What happened at Suez was that the U.S. issued a veto on British and French action, demonstrating that they could no longer conduct an independent foreign policy under the shadow of the American hegemon. With Iran and Hormuz, the (provisional) veto on Trumpian escalation came above all from domestic political constraints, the likelihood Americans would not endure ground-operation casualties or higher gas prices for the hazy objectives of this war. You can argue back and forth about what that domestic veto means for American empire, but being constrained by internal politics is meaningfully different from having your foreign policy plans vetoed by a new global hegemon.

@CDSSpotter @EricLDaugh You're acting like the rest of the world doesn't get a say. Do you really think, long term, that the entire world is going to sit back and let Iran terrorize the strait with nothing but speed boats and drones? Not happening.

@MarsCanals @EricLDaugh Not really. There's a reason the allies Navy hasn't gone into the strait. Iran has high speed anti ship missiles. They don't really need an air force or much of a navy to keep the world at bay. Their army is still massive so a ground war is impossible.

🚨 WOW! SecWar Pete Hegseth just said Iran was OBSESSED with trying to take down our aircraft carrier, but brutally and pathetically failed for the world to watch "They were blowing ammo into FANTASY LAND." 🔥 "Iran shot hundreds and hundreds of missiles and attack one-way attack drones at our aircraft carrier. They were obsessed with it and they never got even close!" "Every single one of those shots easily shot down miles and miles away from the Abe Lincoln."

@shandlin @omriceren We blew up the munitions factories dummy.

@omriceren Iranian Navy was always a joke and unimportant. Missile stocks depleted but still extant and easy to rebuild. No real progress on nuclear. No regime change. Iran with tighter control of Hormuz than before the war. US regional basing in tatters.

You guys are overthinking this. President Trump outlined four strategic goals and then Hormuz became a fifth. So - 1. Missiles ✅ 2. Navy ✅ 3. Proxies ☑️. The Houthis mostly kept their heads down and Hezbollah is not covered by the ceasefire. The answer back is that Iraq is still touch and go. The answer to the answer is that Iranian command and control has been degraded. Let's say 65/35 at worst. 4. Hormuz 🤷. That's the point of the ceasefire and what today is about. This is just an integer: the number of ships that transit. 5. Nuclear 🤷. That's the point of negotiations and what the next two weeks are about. This is a binary: either Iran gives up its highly enriched uranium or it doesn't.

@CDSSpotter @EricLDaugh Sure. On paper the IRGC still controls Iran. But their military power has been reduced to almost nothing. And their only leverage is the ability to act like Somali pirates in the strait. The idea that Iran poses any serious military threat is completely gone. Totally neutered.

@MarsCanals @EricLDaugh And they're still in control of their country and the stait of hormuz. All failed objectives

@Junkmail_84 @imthekaiser @DrewPavlou You mean his gay, legless son who no one has seen in the last five weeks? That new Ayatollah? Cope

@imthekaiser @DrewPavlou You mean the old guy named Khamenei who instantly got replaced with a really pissed off young guy named Khamenei? I don't think that was an achieved objective.

Let’s flip the scenario for a moment. Imagine Iran killed Trump in the first 5 minutes of the war, established air superiority over the US mainland, wiped out the entire US Air Force, US Navy, killed half the Cabinet, flattened the US military industrial complex, then started building runways in Missouri to land Iranian troops without losing any casualties. Would you say it was a US victory if the US managed to keep the Panama Canal closed throughout this all?

@CDSSpotter @EricLDaugh So we did a whatever we wanted to Iran for 5 weeks. Obliterated their navy. Obliterated their air force. Obliterated their air defence system. Obliterated their munitions factories. Killed 250+ of their senior leaders. All of that, and Iran could barely lay a finger on us lol

@EricLDaugh US moved it too far away. There's a reason no American ships went into the straight. Iran has high speed anti ship missiles. TACO TACO TACO

@shipwreckedcrew Porter is a disgusting human being. All I needed to see was that clip of her screaming at her staffer. Swalwell is more of a dim witted useful idiot. Would be fun to watch both of them melt in the primary.

IMO the source of the agitation against Swalwell involving conduct with female interns and staff is the Katie Porter campaign. She expected to run away from the pack as the Dem nominee and her own personality problems have her stuck at 8-10% while Swalwell was starting to separate himself from the other Dems. That risked him taking on the mantle of "front-runner" as more of the 25% undecided begin to line up. Unlike the other Dem candidates, Porter was in Congress with Swalwell and their staffs certainly mixed. She is from the SoCal branch of the Party while Swalwell is from the Bay Area. The SoCal Dems want to wrestle more control of the state party away from the Bay Area with Pelosi slipping into retirement, but Porter is the only SoCal candidate to gain any traction and it's too late now for anyone else to join the race.

@NgLe0X @Maks_NAFO_FELLA We sunk the entire Iranian navy, obliterated their air force, blew up most of their air defence, killed 250+ senior leaders, destroyed munitions factories, and killed countless IRGC. Iran shot down a single plane, and killed 13 Americans. Who is the paper tiger?

@Maks_NAFO_FELLA US folded to ceasefire quicker than Ukraine accept the ceasefire. What a paper tiger US

🇺🇸 Axios: Witkoff reacted furiously to Iran’s 10-point proposal, calling it: “A disaster, a catastrophe.” Pakistan shuttled drafts between the U.S. and Iran, while Egypt and Türkiye tried to bridge gaps. China also quietly urged Iran to find an off-ramp. By Monday night, U.S. approval was secured for a revised two-week ceasefire proposal. 🇮🇷 AP: Iran’s Farsi version of its 10-point ceasefire plan includes “acceptance of enrichment” for its nuclear program—a phrase missing from the English version shared with journalists. The reason for the discrepancy is unclear.

@FocusImages2024 @TheWuhanClan @Faytuks That's kind of funny actually. I bet Trump has a printed out version with everything but #6 crossed out with a black sharpie.

@TheWuhanClan @Faytuks Only #6 will happen

The talks that are set to commence on Friday will be based on Iran's 10-point plan and not Trump's 15-point plan. That, in and of itself, is a significant achievement for Iran.

@EricLDaugh This is bullshit Eric. I don't know what the fuck trump is doing accepting this, even for two weeks

🚨 BREAKING: Iran just CONFIRMED it will OPEN the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage following a deal with President Trump The foreign minister says for 2 weeks, safe passage will be "possible" with coordination with Iran's Armed Forces Iran is also agreeing to a ceasefire, they say, if "attacks against Iran are halted" IRAN CAVED, BIG TIME!!

@awood310 @sethjlevy Lol, we aren't paying Iran compensation. This is a joke.

@sethjlevy This is what Iran is saying the USA agreed to.

A week ago the experts said Trump was trapped. That Iran would never reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Experts wrong again.

@AlexBerenson Have another box of wine Alex.

Whew

@Co26S79222 @jeremyscahill Iran really is the black knight in Monty python

@jeremyscahill Well that is a no deal then if it is the same offer from Pakistan, then they are as dumb as Trump - Iran is not going to give up its main cards and just hand them over .

🚨A senior Iranian official told me that this proposal floated by the Pakistani PM for a temporary ceasefire is essentially the same as previous Trump attempts, which Iran has rejected. Iran has already delivered its terms for negotiating an end to the war. “A balanced proposal, endorsed by all mediators, has already been conveyed to the American side,” the official said. “Washington now has at its disposal all the elements required to reach a decision that will bring an end to the war.”

@mazemoore Probably an accident? What?!?

Gavin Newsom's wife recalls telling prisoners at San Quentin about running over and killing her sister with a golf cart. She said that she wasn't punished because it was an accident but that the prisoners are doing life even though theirs was "probably an accident too."

@anonbrunettex @PrivateCoSaylor @LeadingReport @BTCYN Power plants go boom tonight!

@MarsCanals @PrivateCoSaylor @LeadingReport @BTCYN “a boat got shot but people managed to escape on life vessels, better make sure that whole country dies” fkn spastic. blowing up a boat isn’t a war crime you clown. making sure all non military civilians die is the most obvious war crime ever. even wars have rules idiot.

BREAKING: Every bridge and every power plant in Iran will be decimated by 12AM tomorrow if they do not cave, per POTUS.

@TuttaPajja @Dcplay12C @pati_marins64 Good, then you guys can really "win" when Trump blows the power plants. No one on earth dumber than Persians lol

@MarsCanals @Dcplay12C @pati_marins64 So what? We are born to die. Iran has already won (and long ago, and by some stretch). You can 'celebrate' as much as you want over cheap alcohol.

Regarding the promise to destroy Iran, the US spent four days gathering what remained of precision-guided weapons from around the world for the attack on Iran that began yesterday. The problem with this threat from Trump and Netanyahu is that even after collecting all those bombs, their firepower is now much smaller than it was weeks ago. They may be able to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure, but they are still very far from achieving any massive destruction of the country. This war has already reached a stage where it no longer distinguishes between military and civilian targets, and this is clearly evidenced by the attacks from both sides.

@BlessedLegend2 @TuttaPajja @Dcplay12C @pati_marins64 Dead Persians. That's a win for everyone.

@MarsCanals @TuttaPajja @Dcplay12C @pati_marins64 And what does the US gain from the body bags strategically and tactically?

@ces921 @AntilesSeth Craig, you ignorant slut. What does the "A" in TACO stand for? It stands for "Always". We are 5+ weeks into bombing the living shit out of Iran. So I guess Trump doesnt "Always" chicken out, now does he? Also, want to ask Maduro about TACO?

@AntilesSeth The market is anticipating a TACO. this has nothing to do with me.

This feels like the setup in Liberation Day last year. Fairly binary outcome here this evening, most people believe that he will TACO and given how markets reacted to him not TACO-ing last April 2nd, the odds of him TACO-ing now are likely even greater in the eyes of the market. And given where his polling data is, the odds of trying to create a TACO off-ramp are higher here as well. But Iran knows this as well, pushing Trump to decision time.

@TRHLofficial The Persian language should be spoken only in hell

“Civilization” includes, its people, art, history, culture, the society as a whole. If Iran announced “a whole civilization dies tonight, God bless the American people”, we’d glass them.

Can we all at least agree that “a whole civilization will die tonight” was far too broad a choice in words, and maybe “a whole regime” would have fit his intention better, or are we too deep into doublethink.