Supersleuth

Appreciate your take on $TE. I believe the total solar energy sector is still undervalued at the moment as the technology is improving at a rapid level. $TE is a company that could massively benefit from the improving technology. They are doing a lot of things right imo, however I did not buy any shares yet. During Q3 earnings call they promised a lot of things for Q4 (G1 Dallas ramp-up, record quarterly sales, construction start in Austin,…) and the stock started pumping. This is not a moment to buy imo, the stock has jumped 100% mostly on promises. I’ll keep following them closely and might start a position soon.

$OUST might be the safest high growth opportunity in the market right now. The SAFE LiDAR act makes sure you are buying a near monopoly in the US LiDAR market. My Price Target: $20.52 -> $73.78 (bull case) Here is my thesis: 1. The Silicon Economics Traditional lidar relies on analog architectures requiring highly complex manual calibration, meaning one unit of cost equals one unit of revenue. Ouster completely bypassed this by pioneering a fully digital architecture utilizing consumer-grade SPADs and VCSELs integrated into custom silicon. Because adding resolution simply requires printing denser arrays on silicon, their costs do not scale linearly with performance. This pure volume leverage drove Q4 gross profit margins to a staggering 60.23%. 2. Digital IP & Sensor Fusion Following mergers with Velodyne and Sense Photonics, Ouster consolidated the foundational IP of the sector, holding over 350 patents globally. Furthermore, their recent $35 million acquisition of StereoLabs integrates visual cameras and AI edge compute directly with their lidar. While competitors struggle to scale single sensors, Ouster is offering a plug-and-play multimodal Physical AI stack. 3. Financial Stability While the lidar sector is littered with bankruptcies—most notably Luminar's Chapter 11 filing in late 2025—Ouster boasts an incredibly fortified balance sheet. Cash & Equivalents: A massive liquidity position of approximately $211 million. Debt: Virtually zero, having successfully paid off its revolving credit facility. They are not desperate for cash. Yhey are playing the long game and consolidating while legacy competitors starve. 4. Quality of Revenue Ouster isn't sitting around waiting for passenger robotaxis. They target immediate ROI verticals like industrial automation, robotics, and smart infrastructure. Consistent Growth: They have achieved a 5-year revenue CAGR of 55.01% and shipped over 25,000 sensor units in 2025. Recurring Software: Their software-attached bookings, driven by the Gemini and BlueCity platforms, doubled in 2025. 5. Most importantly: Regulatory Tailwinds Chinese competitors like Hesai currently dominate global automotive volume. However, the U.S. SAFE LiDAR Act aims to systematically phase out foreign adversary lidar from domestic critical infrastructure and defense supply chains. This legislation creates an artificial, multi-billion-dollar market vacuum in the U.S., paving the way for Ouster to capture an estimated 35% U.S. market share in a neutral scenario. 6. Valuation disconnect I calculated 3 scenario's for Ouster, Inc. The main difference between the 3 scenario's is the FCF margin of Ouster, the U.S. TAM, and the amount of US market share they can capture. About 66% of the revenues of Ouster now come from the US. market. I project this to become around 80% when the LiDAR act starts. I only projected an estimate of the US market in my projections. I projected my FCF margins on other sectos that provide AI-hardware but in a more mature phase. In sectors with high competition the lowest FCF-margin I could find is 10%. If they become a real monoply the margin could be as high as 35%. But I don't expect this so, I took 28% in the bull case. $OUST now already has a market share of 14% in the US. Different outlets expect this to become between 30% and 40% after the act. I found some estimations on GlobeNewsWire for example on the estimation on the US LiDAR TAM. I used the minimum that I found as bear case, the max as bull case. I used a desired return of 10% and a terminal growth of 3%. Conclusion I think $OUST is a rare opportunity into a fast growing TAM. I think a worst-case scenario is already priced in and a bull case is certainly not impossible to reach. You need to have a bit of patience with them as the ACT will take some time to settle. But once they take control of the US market, the expansion can be violent. Note: this is not financial advice.

All of this is a lie, so naturally Megyn Kelly promotes it. The U.S./Israel did not bomb some drinking "water source". They bombed a heavy-water facility, which has NOTHING to do with drinking water. Heavy water is water in which the hydrogen atoms are mostly with deuterium, a heavier form of hydrogen. It is used in nuclear facilities. Mario Nawfal is a liar. He intentionally spreads disinformation.

Update: We have seen the beginning of the throwover

The ATM trend continues: Following $IREN's massive $6B ATM offering filing, $AAOI has followed suit, filing for its own $250M ATM. Do you know what an ATM actually is, and why it should concern you as a shareholder? Let me explain An At-The-Market (ATM) offering is a mechanism a publicly traded company uses to raise cash by creating new shares of stock and selling them directly into the open market at the current trading price. Imagine a company that owns a glass safe. In the safe is exactly $10. The company has 10 shares at the moment, all trading at $1. If you own 1 share, you have the right to 10% of what is in the vault (so, $1). It is an open market, so everyone can see what is in the safe. The company now wants to do an ATM of $5, which means they will be looking for 5 new shareholders to put $1 extra in the safe. If 5 new shareholders put an extra $5 in the safe, the safe will be worth $15 and there are now 15 shares. Still all worth $1. You now own 6.67% of a $15 company instead of 10% of a $10 company. So, if the math balances perfectly, why does the stock price almost always drop? 1. True, for the first part of the explanation we can stay with our virtual safe company. Why would a person pay $1 to get a $1 share in return? There might be a risk that the safe gets stolen. He wants a return. So to convince new investors, you will probably have to sell the new shares at $0.95. This has an immediate negative impact on the existing shareholders. The more shareholders you need to find, the lower the convincing price will become. When the price drops, existing shareholders might want to sell as well. This can become a negative spiral. 2. Another immediate impact is that the EPS will drop. Let's say that after the money is 1 year in the safe, it will return $0.1. So in the beginning the $10 will return $1 each year. Every investor will get $0.1 and the EPS will be 0.1. Now there is $15 in the safe, but the last $5 will not return money for another year. The $1 realized profit will now have to be divided over 15 shares. The EPS will automatically drop to 0.067. 3. For the final negative part, we need to leave the safe example. In a real company, the value is different for every investor. The share price is a constant battle between supply and demand. With an ATM, the supply obviously increases while the demand might not. The demand could increase as well, as investors might think that the board might do great things with the new money. But when the ATM is big, the pressure of the constant new supply might be overwhelming. Conclusion So, the share price certainly does not have to come down with a small ATM. If investors trust the company to achieve high returns with the fresh money, the ATM might be a great decision. But the 3 consequences explained here will put constant pressure on that stock price. Convincing new shareholders, a lower EPS and a constant new supply of shares might be costly for existing shareholders.

I add this to my Greek Yogurt breakfast every day. It's called psyllium husk and it's one of the most underrated supplements on the planet. Psyllium husk is a type of fiber made from the husks of the plant called the Plantago ovata seeds. One of the benefits is improved digestive health. Psyllium is a prebiotic, which is needed for a healthy gut. It is also a bulk forming laxative, which means it soaks up in your gut. This can make bowel movements easier without making you fart. It's been shown to help people who suffer from irritable bowel syndrome. It's also been shown to lower cholesterol levels with very few side effects, which can also improve your heart health. Putting this in my shakes helps me stay regular, improves my gut health, and makes the shake fill me up more. Things to consider: When using psyllium husk make sure to add a lot of water as it is bulk forming, which can affect your intestines. Also, a small portion of people can have allergic reactions to psyllium. I would also take this separate from a greens powder as it has been shown to block the absorption of nutrients. I prefer to use psyllium husk flakes instead of the powder as I find the consistency much better. I take 5-7 grams once a day. Have you ever used psyllium husk or are considering adding it? Let me know in the comments.