Marshall Fraser

@tangentstyle I agree that $ERIE doesn’t need to consolidate, but he’s not wrong about the underlying deterioration at Exchange. Do you have a differing view of Exchange?

“haha I’m up so much YTD I could just close the book and be done for the year” you won’t though. we all know you won’t. nobody ever does. stop pretending and get your ass back to the pnl mines.

@blondesnmoney Why the “No” on $ACIC ? I own both it and $IGIC

@blondesnmoney Great write up! Curious that Hingham $HIFS owns 7.6% of $CBNA, I don’t remember ever seeing $HIFS having a stake in another bank

In an age where politics has never been more vicious and flush with cash, Chain Bridge represents a rare opportunity to profit from the chaos - not by betting on the game, but by owning the house $CBNA

@vanckzhu The call transcript reads like they’re not concerned about the Nasdaq de-listing, not looking at selling properties to reduce debt, but are concerned about increasing interest costs. Reads to me like selling to a bigger company with a lower debt cost solves all problems

@vanckzhu How do you read the change of control provision for the prefs? They describe it in the prospectus as a “right”, which to me means pref holders could decline the right and either receive par plus accrued or transfer to the new parent?

Current top 20 holdings, sort of a grab bag. I think I need to lean a bit more into special sits, some of these are a bit stagnant

@Dutch_Book If she likes doing puzzles or building blocks, my daughter was a huge fan of Lego Friends, it’s Legos but for younger girls. She also liked volume, 20 bath bombs for $20, art sets for kids from hobby lobby/michael’s, etc.

@orrdavid Sotherly Hotels has 3 classes of prefs. $sohob $sohoo and $sohon all three yield about 10% plus have 10 accrued but unpaid dividends still owed to prefs that have to be paid before divs to common can be restarted

Anyone have 10%+ yielding pref stocks that they think is very safe? Or bonds that you can buy on margin.

@vanckzhu Any thoughts here with the prefs around $20? Seems like the outlook for the common might be dimmed a bit, but prefs should still be money good, even if catch-up will take longer?

$soho announces standard preferred dividend distros, no mention of catching up on the accrued.

@Catahoula_Value @stoked_on_waves @DarkfireCapital @mjohn707 I would add that $SBNC has said even though the entire securities book is available for sale, they have no intention on selling the underwater bonds.

@stoked_on_waves @DarkfireCapital @MarshallFraser @mjohn707 An epic tug-of-war unfolded in $SBNC this year. Despite the good news about $FCNCA, $SBNC owns super-long-date bonds, a good portion > 15 years. Mark to market losses contributed to a large AOCI build and sapped net income.

Fare thee well, single share of $MCHB, until we meet again…

@orrdavid As of 12-31-22, they only had $1.4 million left on the authorization, but it expired 3-31-23. No update yet on new one

@MarshallFraser I'm guessing yes based on how I got the offer.

Got an email for an offer of a $7 million block of $SBNC, who owns a large stake of $FCNCA. I'm not interested because I can't get margin on $SBNC, but it sure seems very cheap to me. If anyone's interested, let me know and I can connect you. otcmarkets.com/stock/SBNC/fin…

@DarkfireCapital This one is so illiquid, I don’t think you can assume rational price discovery for it. Just have to wait until someone puts the value up in lights, or the Holding family decides to consolidate to capture part of the glaring discount

Sometimes, “sell on the news” is the correct answer… $SBNC

@vanckzhu @sjoerds78 They briefly mentioned it again on the call today that they want to reduce the unpaid preferred dividends, but they didn’t bring up the repayment timing this time. At today’s prices and assuming 2 divs per quarter, pretty easy to underwrite 20% annual returns for next 2 years

@sjoerds78 I thought they talked about paying 2x the dividend for a while to whittle down the accrued last earnings call. Maybe 2Q would be a good time to start?

$soho reports 1Q FFO of $0.20, 2Q guide for FFO of $0.40. 2Q is usually a big quarter, even so probably annualizes to $0.90+ FFO. So the common trades just above 2x FFO, though there remains accrued but unpaid pref dividends ahead of a dividend reinstatement.

@orrdavid Other than common ownership between $SBNC and $FCNCA from the Holding family. $fcncb is actually 16 votes per share rather than 1 with $fcnca but the B shares are super illiquid

@orrdavid Agree that $SBNC is cheap here - entire investment book is available for sale, so it’s all marked to market. They stated they have no intention of selling any though, and capital ratios still strong. Have not done the work on $fcnca in a while, no view there 1/2

These guys shared great info. I can't use either idea for scale and margin reasons, or I'd be buying at these prices. $SBNC seems still probably cheap here and $FCNCB trades at a nice discount to the A shares - I didn't even realize there were two share classes before.

@orrdavid @DarkfireCapital Sorry, market cap of $412 million based on 12-31-22 share count and 3-28-23 closing price

@orrdavid @DarkfireCapital $SBNC annual report dropped today. They own 191,963 shares of $fcnca 22,619 shares of $fcncb and 198,945 shares of First Citizens preferred. Totals up to about $198 million in First Citizens equity vs $sbnc market cap of $473 million as of today’s close

If you told me a year ago that I’d be happy to be breaking even on $SBNC from their $FCNCA stake buying $SIVB for a song, I probably wouldn’t have believed you….

@bigbluebugcap @DadInvest Beer at Minetta’s? Punch me in the face so I know it’s you