Mathilda

@thenarrator Exactly! This is very much bc the space is still early. That said mm on polymarket is getting more and more crowded. At @TipRun_Markets we have a founding mm program, perfect for small teams that want to explore new venues. Check it out!

a lot of prediction market arbitrage right now is being run by students and solo devs with python scripts and small funded accounts. wide spreads, cross-venue gaps, basic strategies that work this feels like 2017 crypto exchange arb all over again (except with much less players) if you can code and you're interested in prediction markets, the time spent running bots and learning these order books right now is worth a lot i believe that you're building the resume that institutional PM desks will recruit from in 2028

@LatticaFinance That's very cool!

@CoinMarketCap DEX

CEX or DEX?

Such a well written piece! Personally so sick of the “performative founders” that brag about sleeping 3 hours a day or working 24/7. That’s not hardworking; that’s just retarded. You can’t make good strategic decisions w/o protecting & continuously developing your brain, which means good food, sleep, exercise, & reasonably allocating your workload from light to hardcore throughout the day. With AI productivity has skyrocketed & capabilities have been commoditized, the only way to steer your ship well & stay competitive is to keep learning & concentrate your efforts on the high leverage things. Also, if there’s one subject that a founder should learn about beyond their own domain, it’s neuroscience. Understanding how your brain works will help you manage yourself & your team so much more effectively. Don’t fight against your hardware, work with it.

@shengkun_ye It’s the GEO era!

an investor just told me he found me through his agent. founders, make sure you're discoverable by agents.

As a founder you have to create a sense of urgency and turn your company’s goals into the top priority of not only your team’s but also your business partners’

@thepisieth @Polymarket Genuinely curious - why would they actually launch a token & do an airdrop if they’re currently trying to be regulated & licensed in us

Dear @Polymarket Team, please don't pull the same moves as OpenSea, Base, or those other platforms we can't even remember. Stringing people along with airdrop hints just to farm liquidity and exploit them was their biggest mistake. Keep a healthy dialogue with the community. Listen to them and be ready to meet them halfway. This is your best move. Don't drag out the airdrop timeline and turn the community against you. Best.

@ycombinator @river_markets That’s so exciting!

.@river_markets is building prime brokerage for prediction markets. One terminal and API to trade every venue, with cross-exchange routing and the order types professional desks actually need. Institutional infrastructure for the fastest-growing asset class. Schedule a demo at rivermarkets.com

@ericliujt Good stuff!

@soy_muse But also, one of the best things of building onchain is censorship resistance.

Spain just banned Polymarket & kalshi today and they’re not the first 36 countries restricted 31 fully blocked 5 on close-only Indonesia banned it 4 days ago after someone bet their president wouldn't finish his term Spain bans it today Are prediction markets really a gambling problem or just a control problem?

🙋🏻‍♀️check out what we’re building at @TipRun_Markets, the first prediction market for cricket, world’s 2nd largest sport w 2.5b fan base & $150b annual betting turnover. The space is currently dominated by dodgy offshore betting sites and offline bookies. We’re moving it to an onchain, transparent, peer to peer exchange. When it comes to sports predictions there’s no one-size-fits-all product. For different sports you have to build specialized market content (cricket happens to have the most betting permutations among all sports), market lifecycle engine, and distribution. While Polymarket & Kalshi focus on US sports, cricket as a major global sport is totally underserved. And that’s why we’re here!

i hear prediction market pitches almost every day now most converge toward the same handful of ideas: another aggregator, another terminal, another dashboard maybe 1% of teams come in with something genuinely novel like a mechanic i haven’t seen before or an angle that reframes assumptions i didn’t know i had that 1% is what i’m paying the most attention to

That’s the real crypto x AI convergence we want

@DeItaone I love China but this is getting a bit retarded

CHINA IS RESTRICTING OVERSEAS TRAVEL FOR TOP AI PROFESSIONALS IN PRIVATE FIRMS SUCH AS ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING AND DEEPSEEK

@dwarkesh_sp Terrence Tao

Who should I interview on my podcast? Open to more AI, but also to random history/econ/etc professors that I might not have heard of before.

@martin_casado Do you trade with it 🤔

I love AI. I use it all the time. I code with it. I brainstorm with it. I use it for research. I use it to learn. But I never write with it.

@senzer @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Nothing in the world like see your thesis play out in the markets

+$614 last week (mostly latent tbh) Polymarket got me into politics & geopolitics, stuff i never cared about before starting from basically zero turns out following the news hits different when there's money on the line the stakes make it fun, feels more like a game hoping peace comes soon 🤝

It’s always humans with high intellectual curiosity & high agency vs. everyone else, regardless of time.

@OndoFinance RIP 🙏

It is with profound sadness that we announce the unexpected passing of Nathan Allman, Ondo's founder. Our hearts are with his family and loved ones. Nate’s brilliance, humility, and drive shaped every part of what Ondo is today. His belief in the power of technology to create a more open, accessible financial system lives on in everything we build. The impact he had on this industry, and on all of us personally, cannot be overstated. Nate also helped us build a durable organization with experienced leaders across all facets of the business. Ian De Bode, Ondo Finance’s longtime President, will serve as CEO. Ian has been leading our strategy, product, and day-to-day operations for over two years and has the full confidence of the leadership team. We will continue building what Nate started. That is the most meaningful way we know to honor him.

That’s actually a more complex topic than you described. By “token trading infra”, do you mean the backend, the front end, or the smart contracts? Because from the backend and smart contracts’ perspective, you can absolutely repurpose the code of, say a perp dex, into a prediction market. You still have to make a lot of changes but the code is highly reusable. It’s the front end that needs a complete rewrite. Now when it comes to product features, there are features that you simply have to cut out for a prediction market, the major one being margin system. No prediction market (as far as I know) offers it at the moment bc it’s too hard. Offering margin on a single position is already hard given the risks of liquidation gaps, resolution delays, and oracle disputes. And in reality users may hold highly correlated positions (e.g. bet on multiple markets in the same sport event). If you offer them leverage on those positions at the same time, give that correlation is a unstable factor, that might just lead to correlated wipeouts for the exchange, which is textbook tail correlation problem that happened to LTCM. AIG etc. To offer leverage you’d need to build a portfolio margin system, which means real time covariance metrics across every market pair, stress test scenarios, and have an insurance fund. Otherwise a simpler solution is to offer a credit line. To put it simply, margin system in a “token trading infra” wouldn’t work for a prediction market for sure. So it really depends on whether you’re talking from a product, UI/UX, or engineering perspective. Because from different perspectives, the degree of overlap between “token trading infra” and prediction markets vary. After all, Polymarket is technically also a “token trading infra” that allows you to trade ERC-1155 CTF tokens.

A lot of founders are applying token trading infra assumptions onto prediction markets, but think that’s largely skeuomorphic thinking. Prediction markets are a different behavioral and liquidity primitive, meaning new product and user interaction models can emerge beyond just traditional exchange UX, margin, lending etc Don’t think opportunity is rebuilding another exchange stack some may work, but discovering experiences native to prediction markets is likely the larger opportunity. A few founders in our current batch are starting to uncover and build for that assumption

@sai0xgen Exactly why my mkt team asked me to engage / post on X every day 🥹 im trying

build your social presence it will unlock so many doors to new opportunities that's the tweet !!