Matt A

@NickTheQuant44 Excited for this. Especially with exchanges there should be a lot of good value spots

Quick note. As I recently posted, I have added a live probability proponent to my model to identify potential +EV live opportunities. I will be doing these EV check ins at midway points in the games I ran through my model. So keep an eye out for my posts once my picks reach the 4th/5th inning.

4/20/26 MLB Sports Betting Picks: Not much value at all on today's board but my model identified some decent value. PICK: Cleveland Guardians ML (-122) +2.76% EV Risk 0.48% Insight & analysis on my website/blog below! williamsnick273.wixsite.com/nick-the-quant

@NickTheQuant44 Trusting the model so much im betting against my home town team (mariners) against their rivals. I hope they will forgive me

4/12/2026 MLB Sports Betting Picks: Smaller slate today but still found great value! PICK #1: Houston Astros Moneyline (+144) +34.15% EV Risk 2.965% PICK #2: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (+159) +6.55% EV Risk 0.515% Enjoy!

@NickTheQuant44 Lol they made it interesting, but looking great now.

Let’s hope the A’s don’t blow a 7-2 lead lmao (😟)

@NickTheQuant44 If you ever get into Poker, or betting MMA let me know. Thats what i do for a living. Looking forward to this MLB season if your model does really well this year i will show some appreciation $. I would love to know more about your model.

@MattAA777 Awesome! And as of now I don’t but I plan on getting into those markets eventually.

Betting on the MLB begins tomorrow! Have been collecting valuable data, and I wanted to provide some insight. As I explained prior, for this season my MLB model has 9 interior models. Calibration is performed on both the inner and outer ensemble production. A third layer of calibration then is performed based on how much money is on said team. Top 'Predictive Rankings' Teams: #1. Milwaukee Brewers | 0.8571 #2. New York Yankees | 0.8333 #3. Miami Marlins | 0.667 #3. Philadelphia Phillies | 0.667 #5. Atlanta Braves | 0.60 Market Dynamics/Public Performance 50-55% Money | 50% Win Rate 56-60% Money | 37% Win Rate 61-65% Money | 55% Win Rate 66-70% Money | 75% Win Rate 71-75% Money | 63% Win Rate 76-80% Money | 43% Win Rate 81-85% Money | 33% Win Rate 86-90% Money | 77% Win Rate 90+% Money | 50% Win Rate Drop me a follow and turn my post notifications to be ready for tomorrow's picks!!

@jeremyausmus Thats been my experience too as a long times mid stakes pro. Moving to mixed games or less solved variants or live poker can keep you in games that rely more on street smart poker

The pre-solver era was built on street smarts. The modern era is overrun with book smarts. The biggest edge in live poker today? Knowing when the solver says "call," but the human across from you is literally incapable of bluffing that spot. Don't go broke defending against a range that doesn't exist.

@IrlJerryncam @Timcast why do people who clearly know nothing feel compelled to make bad analogies

@Timcast I dont have a problem, i just like the way alcohol makes me feel. im a drinker, not a drunk. I can afford it so, its not a problem. if you bet on ohio state every time its not even gambling because they win most the time. I really like Tim alot, but he might have a problem.

My god i hope for this in every hand I wish I flopped two pair against a gutter and they call me down with it Calling 1:1 odds with 1:6 isn't gambling, its giving money away

@NickTheQuant44 Can identify value based on your model and a price. Take partial units and predict it might get better and wait to lock in second half of your bet at hopefully better odds. If info looks like price might get worse, take full action night before etc

Brutal loss on Santa Clara in OT. Was definitely the right side just honestly some crazy plays by KU to stay in it.

@NickTheQuant44 Being able to predict line movement would be worth looking into.(public betting %,narrative etc) With a winning model knowing who to bet, you will up your ROI a lot line shopping and predicting when to bet.

@NickTheQuant44 This press from Texas AM working well so far

Another positive CLV. 2/2 today. We had Texas A&M at +136 Closing line was +125 Denoting a CLV of +2.07%

@NickTheQuant44 Iowa state controlled that game for the majority of it. Another heart breaker. Great game but tough second half

Another buzzer beater loss. This time Iowa State Thats four within the past week…

@NickTheQuant44 If Duq can have a decent second half we should do pretty well today even with the confidence pick creighton losing

3/12/2026 College Basketball Sports Betting Picks: Strong value on the board today. Excited to continue utilizing double-layered calibration on my ensemble model. Enjoy!

@NickTheQuant44 you are often on the right side of the betting splits from the data i pay for . Small to medium underdogs, usually on the road are good spots historically and they represent a decent amount of the models plays.

Criminal collapse yet again. This time it’s USC👍

@NickTheQuant44 was a rough one, i am glad i went to the gym and missed most of the second half that would have been a painful sweat lol. First half was going so well. I am doing solid combining your model but with a much more conservative unit sizing and mixing in some public betting % stats.

@NickTheQuant44 Great start to the USC game. The model breakdowns are interesting, a nice addition.

3/11/2026 College Basketball Sports Betting Picks Insane value on USC today, as this is my highest-risk single bet to date. Other than USC, relatively solid value across today's board. Enjoy! *Detailed analysis and reasoning for picks are attached in the comment.*

@NickTheQuant44 Marist could have easily won that game. Curious if/how there are small adjustments to make with your model depending on circumstance for the teams. We are getting late into the season, games have different meaning

3/8/2026 College Basketball Sports Betting Picks Results:

@Amonahan you are lucky to have had them later in life. I lost both of my parents in the last handful of years. Makes you realize what really matters in life is more than winning or losing at gambling

Ik everybody goes through it but nobody talks about how hard it is to lose your grandparents

@NickTheQuant44 Have you ever looked into betting point totals? Possibly some really good spots for your data models with specifically under totals.

3/7/2026 College Basketball Sports Betting Picks Happy Saturday! Great value on the board today. Enjoy!

@Amonahan Around 2010-15 i started seeing social media take over and decided to mostly stay off. As a long time pro poker player and sports bettor i realized not using it was a big mistake. The best way to interact with people and share passions. Never too late

I tell EVERYONE who asks for advice to start posting on social media ... Whatever your dream is, expressing yourself online is valuable 👍 I didn't use it until 24 & I regret it every day... I loved nerdy gambling & social media brought me the rare few people who fuck with it

@NickTheQuant44 going for the SWEEP!

3/4/2026 College Basketball Sports Betting Picks HUGE Value on the board today. As always, mathematically rational decision making backed by probability theory. Enjoy!