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This song always gives me the chills. Hope everyone enjoys it. #Harvest2021 #harvest21 #AgTwitter #wheat #godscountry #USA #America #farming #FarmingTwitter
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Matt Borgen
5.2K posts
Matt Borgen
@MattMbfarm
Father Husband Farmer #OnTheGasKickinAss @BorgenFarms @AgassizE🇺🇸🇨🇦#backtheblue
Georgetown MN Katılım Haziran 2013
2.6K Takip Edilen3K Takipçiler
Matt Borgen retweetledi
We’re not 2008.
2008:
“Corn is so profitable I don’t care what fertilizer cost, put it on!"
2026:
“My margins are so tight I can barely afford to apply at these prices.”
Those are completely different demand signals.
Elevated margins create inelastic demand → shortages get worse
Low margins create elastic demand → demand self-rations
This isn’t a supply crisis. It’s a margin-constrained market.
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A lot of good ideas have come from this view the last few days. It’s time to get back to the real world and execute!
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ATS Update:
One tank to go. We found that:
👉🏼Heating it up 🥵helped a lot (bought a bucket heater on Amazon for $29)
👉🏼agitation by sucking it out of the tank and then dumping it back in the top (once the tank was warmed up)
👉🏼LOTs of agitation - 2” trash pump for 3 hours/tank
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@QShieldknight @JLinvilleFert @gpt_es made this for me using what’s happening in the World as of today.
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Matt Borgen retweetledi
The loss of Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iran urea exports equates to roughly 81M acres of U.S. corn nitrogen being lost annually.
- S.A./Qatar/Iran 2024 urea exports - 13.5M
- U.S. corn acre average = 155 lbs/actual N
- 1T urea (920 lbs/actual N) = 6 acres
- 13.5M x 6 = 81M acres
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@ShawnRyan762 300 that were buying from the same five companies. They have cut out the middle man and taken that profit for there bottom line. Basically we are dealing direct just not getting the discounts.
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Zach Lahn Official Preview
“Right now there’s three big companies that control 85% of the agriculture input market. When I was growing up in Iowa, there were over 300 companies. They’ve bought up and bought up and consolidated and sold it this way. Farmers have the illusion of choice. And one of those companies is called Syngenta, which is 100% owned by the state of China.”
@ZachLahn
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Matt Borgen retweetledi
A couple of days ago, I had thought that ICE #11 raw sugar was trading in a descending wedge pattern somewhere between 13.5 and 14.5 cents/lb. I'm retiring that view now and look forward to wiser counsel ...
@EddieTofpik
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Matt Borgen retweetledi
@unusual_whales @DesoGames It is expected to last for a whole year, and it is also out of stock in China.
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@JLinvilleFert any idea of how many pounds of nitrogen there will be the US in the next 2 months? Compared to what is needed to plant 86 million acres of corn?
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@MattMbfarm It’s great here! We are staying at Beaches. It’s quite the place
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@JLinvilleFert thoughts ?
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
BREAKING: The world spent fifty years and hundreds of billions of dollars building Strategic Petroleum Reserves so that no geopolitical shock could starve civilization of energy. Nobody built the equivalent for fertilizer. That is the most expensive oversight in the history of modern statecraft, and you are about to pay for it at the grocery store. The Strait of Hormuz does not merely carry 20% of global oil. UNCTAD estimates roughly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade passes through it. The Fertilizer Institute estimates that conflict-exposed exporters account for nearly 49% of global urea exports and nearly half of global sulfur trade. Since February 28, daily ship transits have collapsed by 97%. Here is what almost nobody understands about why this is not "just another commodity spike." It was not the missiles that closed the strait. It was the insurance. Multiple P&I clubs cancelled war-risk extensions for the Gulf after 26 months of Red Sea losses had already depleted their Solvency II capital buffers. War-risk premiums surged from 0.25% to as high as 5% of hull value per transit. A urea cargo cannot absorb that. The economics of fertilizer shipping through Hormuz became impossible before a single mine needed to detonate. The Trump administration announced a $20 billion sovereign-backed reinsurance facility with Chubb as lead underwriter. There is no confirmed public evidence that a single fertilizer vessel has used it. Insurance pays for financial loss. It does not intercept anti-ship missiles. Physical security remains the binding constraint, and the US Navy confirmed on March 12 it is "not ready" for commercial escorts. Now here is the part that should terrify every allocator on Earth. Agriculture runs on biological deadlines. Corn Belt farmers need nitrogen applied by mid-April. Indian Kharif season prep starts in May. Australian winter crop needs urea by June. These are not financial deadlines that reprice. They are photosynthetic deadlines that, once missed, produce irreversible yield loss. A diplomatic breakthrough on April 15 does not help a farmer who needed fertilizer on April 1. And the yield math is nonlinear. Wall Street models fertilizer-to-output as proportional. It is not. The response is quadratic. In developed systems that over-apply nitrogen, a 15% reduction costs 2-5% of yield. In the Global South where farmers already under-apply, the same reduction pushes crops off a biophysical cliff. Sri Lanka proved this in 2021 when a sudden fertilizer ban collapsed rice production 40% in a single season and brought down the government. The market is pricing a 45-day disruption. The insurance architecture says 120 days minimum. Even after a hypothetical ceasefire, Solvency II capital rebuild, reinsurance treaty renegotiation, and vessel re-underwriting take months. The Red Sea precedent: 26 months after Houthi attacks began, war-risk premiums never returned to pre-crisis levels. Both sides are rejecting negotiations. Trump rebuffed ceasefire mediation March 14. Iran's foreign minister on March 15: "We never asked for a ceasefire." Meanwhile: 51% of US corn areas in drought. El Nino favored by June at 62% probability. Skymet assigns 60% chance of below-normal Indian monsoon. Bangladesh has shut five of six urea factories. India formally asked China for urea on March 12. Egypt faces $28 billion in debt repayments while importing 12.7 million tonnes of wheat. WFP identifies 318 million people already at crisis-level hunger. The world stockpiled oil but forgot to stockpile the molecules that produce half its food. The clock is the position. Full analysis in the link! open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Matt Borgen retweetledi
For those on the farmer fertilizer newsletter, you knew what to watch for as the Middle East blew up.
If you need an inside view on the fertilizer market's, use the link below.
If you are on it and it has helped, would you please re-tweet this?
stonex.com/en/market-inte…
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@MattMbfarm Look at Garmin or probably what ever Pilot or Flying J sell at their travel centers.
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What is the best GPS for OTR drivers where it will only give directions on truck routes? Basically looking for something to keep the drivers out of trouble down in cities like Minneapolis. Thanks. #Trucking
GIF
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@MattMbfarm @JohnDeere @Horob Have a 410r with see and spray coming up for sale shortly if interested.. I like the potential off the product updated to a newer 412 with see and spray as well, lot off changes improvements coming with time.. the 12mph to 15 mph is gonna be a nice change
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Anyone care to share there real world results using @JohnDeere see n spray did you change your spray program or stay the same? Any other thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks
@Horob
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@blonglet @JohnDeere @Horob Did you run it at most aggressive or in middle setting for coverage. What speed did you drive?
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@MattMbfarm @JohnDeere @Horob We used it last year on 900 acres. We also switched to strip till so it’s hard to do a complete side by side as we have started using a pre in our program.
Pre- Generic Callisto, Atrazine, roundup
Post- Laudis and generic harness
Post averaged around 60% savings.
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@MattMbfarm it's so easy to get into trouble with a semi in the cities
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