Matthew Marinelli

@slumdiggitydude Sicko mode. 🔥 Also, 8 people bookmarking this like they gotta check back in on this graph later. 😅

decent start to the year

Massive bot farm on Ignition/Bovada. They’ve know about for ages and done nothing. It’s highstakes and this isn’t the entire operation either and they just don’t care. Enough is enough of this shit. (I didn’t create the bot or the video) I don’t think this is happening on other major sites either. It always affects me very negatively to post things but I still do not sure why.

@tombos21 If you want data, just look at GG VIP room winrates. Short tables were horrible for regs compared to deep tables, because short tables didn't give regs enough edge vs recs to beat the 5knl rake.

@tombos21 It's not about more decisions, but deeper stacks means mistakes by % of the pot are uncapped / highly punitive. Making a 1% pot mistake in a 600bb pot is 6bbs compared to 1% pot in 200bb pot. Basically, you're capped on how badly you can fuck up, which limits bb/100.

Does skill edge in poker scale generally with effective stack depth? Most players assume so, but I've never seen empirical evidence to back it up.

@tombos21 Now extend that to our thoughts as well. Consciousness itself may be the sensation of neurological activity, and our brain might hallucinate our thoughts to make sense of the chaos of our brains.

The Entropic Brain theory is wild. It suggests that the way we actually perceive reality looks like a psychedelic trip, and that we "hallucinate" normalcy. Your brain is meat trapped in a dark skull that only interacts with the world via electrical signals. Those signals are noisy and imperfect. To make sense of the chaos, your mind makes predictions about what the signals mean, and hallucinates the world around you. Infants are basically tripping balls 24/7. Babies don't have strong priors about physical reality yet, so their "prediction engines" aren't very efficient. They experience raw, unfiltered reality; noisy signals with loose interpretations. So they see the world as we might after taking a hero dose of mushrooms. As we get older, we develop strong priors for how the physical world works. Our "prediction engine" gets better at filtering the noise, so we hallucinate a stable, boring world. We see what we expect to see. When you take psychedelics, you disrupt that prediction engine. Suddenly, you are back to tripping on unfiltered reality. You might see a wall breathing. Why? Because the rigid prediction "walls don't move" has failed. Your visual cortex is receiving raw, noisy data, and without the normal filters, it interprets that noise as literal movement. It's a fascinating concept that has changed the way I think about the world.

@tombos21 People typically criticize observations like "Avg Reg Winrate is X" with "all the crazy volume grinders drive that # down!", but I've found it to be the opposite. High volume players win more because they are the survivors of poker, and they have incentive to play cuz they win.

Visualizing the correlation between win rate and volume at NL50 and NL500. Each dot represents one player. Poker really is the definition of "sink or swim".

@Jacob11Cohen @George_ymb The difference with poker is there's recreational players. Something like chess is more a direct IQ test, but with poker I actually do think there's significantly more slack because recs lose at -30bb/100, so there's some opportunity to view it like learning a trade.

As always, @MatthewMarinel5 latest blog entry goes hard. In some ways, online poker is very tough, but in other ways it's insane how uncompetitive it is, given the relative size of the opportunity. runitonce.com/chatter/marine…

Whilst attempting to convince GG a rake decrease for HU and SH would generate action (and rake), GG said word for word: 'Competition among PokerPros sadly does not occur on GG or anywhere worldwide' Since then >2milli hands played across the 3 @CoinPoker_OFF challenges 🙏

@Jeremytimmons @lulumeservey Sure. It was just a comment from a WH spokesperson, and they didn't even say it wasn't funny or urge people not to watch it. Just said South Park sucks and Trump is great lol.

@MatthewMarinel5 @lulumeservey Is it standard for the White House to release an opinion about a cartoon?

Thank you @repdinatitus for your leadership! I am happy to join you as a co-sponsor and work with you to get other members on board.

On Monday I’m introducing the FAIR BET Act, the Fair Accounting for Income Realized from Betting Earnings Taxation Act, to permanently restore the 100% loss deduction from gambling winnings. I welcome all other members to join this common sense fix.

@Milton_Kingsley Playing on Ignition is like a bad relationship: the interactions are short-lived and you hate yourself afterwards. And the bots are like herpes. They'll be around for a while.

@MatthewMarinel5 Very true. Out of interest, do you still ever play on their site? Do you think they'll ever remove their bots?

Ignition Poker firing more shots at Marvel than the bots on their site.🤖

Buried within the BS Republican Budget bill is a provision that harms poker players and those who gamble by limiting loss deductions. I’m working on a legislative fix that fairly treats gaming losses in the tax code.

This new amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would end professional gambling in the US and hurt casual gamblers, too. You could pay more in tax than you won. Contact your representative quickly.

@mobiuspoker The poker side is probably run by one guy that doesn't even remember that feature exists.

If you asked me if the bots on Bovada are run by the site, I would say I think that's probably the most likely explanation. But what's funny is Bovada is one of the only sites that allows you to download hand histories with whole cards revealed. If you were running a scam, why would you go out of your way to show what's happening?

@MrJesseJames4 @berkey11 @OnlyFriends_Pod Thanks, Jesse. :)

@MatthewMarinel5 @berkey11 @OnlyFriends_Pod Just clicked through to your blog, you’re a really strong writer. Excited to follow your journey

Shout out to @berkey11 @OnlyFriends_Pod for putting on an incredible show all these years. It was like CNN for poker: always reliable, up-to-date, and professional, but also a fun hangout among friends. Thanks for everything!

@cristicini @berkey11 @OnlyFriends_Pod Relative to Doug Polk, it's CNN. 😂

@MatthewMarinel5 @berkey11 @OnlyFriends_Pod U had me in the first half, i swear.