Maximus Capital

how is the man @demishassabis who spent his whole life on ai falling behind? very puzzling not sure what is going on behind the scenes

Risk/reward seems attractive again. Lots of cheap stocks with durable competitive advantages that are going to crush numbers for the next 6-12 quarters. Time will tell!

@bubbleboi $INTC

Every retard on fintwit thought Aehr test was only used for photonics like absolute nincompoops. 🤣🤣🤣🤣 They did noooo research ! They did noooo due diligence ! They just read tweets and believed it ! Me? I went to factory in Fremont and met with their team. They showed me their new tools and I was mightily impressed ! Funny enough most of the orders weren’t for photonics but for advanced packaging !!! Guess who their biggest customer was 😉😉😜🤣🤣🤣 good luck with your mediocre “alpha” bros I’ll keep taking meetings with top semi engineers in the industry while you guys keep talking to Claude trying to learn about photonics lol

$PNR what a wonderful pre-release

Ya I'm not sure the signal value of hedge funds given we have 2y moving down on a CPi number today every knee would be soft lmao guess not "priced in" Is inflation getting worse ?- economy is pretty average ex so is it worth it rolling the dice on employment for another 50bp of CPI?

@MaximusCap_ @Lars57360069 @eliant_capital Not sure what to respond to - you’re saying 2 year was wrong once in the past so no signal value when it’s priced based on HF views of Fed behavior - your view is inflation can’t be fixed so why even try even though it’s above target ?

@rev_cap @Lars57360069 @eliant_capital Well 2yr also predicted massive amount of cuts in recent memory because of one bad job print lol I just don't see how 25-50 bp crushes inflation if it's such an issue? Can make an argument that higher yields are inflationary as well but don't need to go down that path

@MaximusCap_ @Lars57360069 @eliant_capital They’re going to hike man You’ve faded me on this all year and it’s bumpy but 2yr just keeps going up It’s an end of the Powell absurdity. And it’s all going to be fine for the economy. But that’s the point and why they have to hike

@Lars57360069 @rev_cap @eliant_capital really a pointless debate imo - both pce and the fed are not going to move much one way or the other (ex a shock) until something cracks as both labor and inflation are relatively steady

@rev_cap @MaximusCap_ @eliant_capital Serious question. What's the point of the hikes? Slow AI trade Capex? Slow top of K spending? If long yields down, it sounds like equities would love that.

@rev_cap @eliant_capital And what happens to long end when they hike?

@eliant_capital Still hiking this year. Just a question of which meeting

The mega bull case for AI infrastructure would be *if* market share shifted away from certain frontier labs with 90%+ inference margins toward cheaper models, whether open-source or closed. It would increase the ROI on AI spend for end customers by increasing intelligence per dollar, which would drive incremental token demand. Margin dollars would effectively get redistributed from the frontier labs to AI infrastructure providers. The infra winners would be those with the lowest per token cost and the winners at the model layer would be those with the highest token efficiency. There are many reasons Jensen is so focused on open source, but this is likely the most important one as I think he is probably less worried about a monopsony these days. Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at the infra layer all else equal. With SpaceX and Meta being vertically integrated and possessing the #3 and #4 models respectively it is more possible than ever. Note that Grok 4.5 is ahead of Fable for some useful tasks at a much lower cost, so ranking them #3 is conservative. This is not happening yet. Cheap, mostly open source tokens are likely the majority of volume today but the majority of economic value is still accruing to the most intelligent models. Might change though. We will see.

@TheStalwart Has been on midtown ads for 3 years

This guy blew up so fast

@coatuemgmt $INTC vs $NVDA might be the best long duration trade (not even because of this chart) Cc:@bubbleboi

Chart of the Day: CPU is back from the dead.

Noise data across power levels at 50C. $COHR 400mw-class laser is dogshit. Ask them to show their data in the same format and conditions as this public Lumentum slide. I know the answer. DOGSHIT.

@CKCapitalxx Lmao not the Nasdaq you think

@pequityresearch bears currently running "the demand is fake" and "the grid physically cannot power all this demand" at the same time. pick one

BofA: AI Power Demand > 100+ GW Supply Gap: The US is projected to face an electricity generation shortfall of over 100 gigawatts (GW) between 2026 and 2030. > Surging Demand vs. Capped Supply: Global semiconductor team forecasts imply a need for 230+ GW of capacity demand, while the US utilities team expects only 93 GW of accredited supply from regulated utilities. > Massive Compute Load: Driven by AI accelerators, global IT load is expected to require 208 GW between 2026 and 2030. Factoring in a 50% North American share and a 1.20 Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) multiplier to account for cooling and facilities, this translates to 125 GW of direct US data center load growth. > Accelerated Growth Rate: After flat growth from 2010 to 2020 (largely due to a 150bp drag from LED adoption, appliance efficiency, and residential solar), US electrical load is projected to grow at a 4.1% CAGR from 2026 to 2030. > Rise of Gas Engines: Due to turbine scarcity and the need for fast-response grid balancing, data center developers are shifting to gas reciprocating engines. Leading manufacturers like Caterpillar, INNIO Group, Rolls Royce, and Wärtsilä have all announced capacity expansions. > Exponential Rack-Level Power Growth: BofA Global Research pointed out a staggering leap in the power density required by Nvidia's hardware generations. Power density has jumped from 35 kilowatts (kW) per rack for the Nvidia H100 chip up to an estimated 600 kW per rack for its upcoming Feynman architecture. $GEV $CAT $NVDA $AMD $GOOGL $AMZN $INTC

@stonk_daddy a lab "cleaning house" has never once resulted in a smaller GPU order

xAI didn’t ship anything for six months as they cleaned house. Let go of the entire founding team, like Elon did in early Starlink days when they were struggling. Brought in SpaceX vets and Cursor team to pivot course. First model from the xAI/Cursor collab completely mogs the Pareto frontier. Training on Cursor data brought up the intelligence. Vertically integrating from model to compute brought down the cost. At the IPO, it was a foregone conclusion that SpaceX lost the AI race. Investors breathed a sigh of relief when the Anthropic and Google deals were announced—at least they could monetize all that capex spent on GPUs somehow. IPO was a bailout for xAI they said. Fast forward to today and the whole story is flipped. Grok 4.5’s intelligence is not mind-blowing. But its cost of intelligence is eye-opening. And most importantly, its trajectory since where we were six months ago—let’s just say you’re about to find out soon why Elon put in those 90-day terminate clauses on his data center leases. "Whether it is the best remains to be seen, but I will never give up. Never.”

@ScroogeCap zuck just signed up for three more years of custom silicon in the middle of a drawdown. weird way to exit a bubble

Recall from earlier this $META chip will be done with $AVGO. Looks like Zuck ain't going to cut capex any time soon. AVGO does the ASIC routing and design on it and $TSM will manufacture as usual. See below for context - youtube.com/watch?v=_sXHGQ… streetinsider.com/Reuters/Exclus…

@jbulltard1 Flat today?

$INTC down 5% the next day, see how many of you bought the dip yesterday? Ask yourself why bc i know it had nothing to do with looking at a chart x.com/jbulltard1/sta…

The yields Jerry, the yields!

@Srasgon the marine biologist episode but the whale is a 2nm ramp