P Equity Research 📰

I post for free on substack with cheap paid subscription options. I specialize in equity research, mostly on AI companies. Doing deep dives + simple financial modeling. I hope you all can support my work 🙏 pequityresearch.substack.com

@forced_alpha Well said

@pequityresearch Red phosphorus is the underappreciated one here. It's the pricing power anchor in InP crystal growth.

Material shortages in the AI supply chain I believe Gallium and Germanium supply issues could be a problem in the future when demand for GaN devices increases, but for now, I would consider it to be medium. This is something to watch out for. Significant supply shortages in acids, photoresists, ABF/BT substrate, T-glass fibre, tantalum powder, InP, CCL. Red phosphorous is unique, because the exports of it is limited and could see supply issues with rise in InP demand. Please provide insight if any of these are incorrect.

@KSC1312 @damnang2 Yes I agree

@pequityresearch @damnang2 Depends on how old you are now? No?

I’ve been thinking more about retirement planning lately. How much do you think you need to retire comfortably? Please share your number in the comments. For me, I probably need to leave the Bay Area first😔

@rosyprosperity Very cool

@pequityresearch The instrument bottleneck (cryo-EM - the same one as the one inside of $TMO ) for wet labs is masked by a diluted parent in a cyclical through.

Long both $6951.T and $6965.T I sense very gold times ahead.

@phantom2008012 🔥🔥🔥

WinWayの動画でCPOに関する情報

@JohnWickPencil @OxfordAnalytics Plus, you said they buy a lot from themselves.

@JohnWickPencil @OxfordAnalytics Sizeable as in how much?

$NVDA enjoys 75% gross profit margins. These aren’t sustainable. Not when their biggest clients are investing billions in becoming vertically integrated and producing their own chips. 39% of $NVDA sales come from just two unnamed clients. They’re most likely $AMZN & $MSFT. $AMZN AWS Trainium clusters can offer a 30-50% cost performance advantage over $NVDA. $MSFT Azure Maia line of chips are “strategically engineered for AI inference.” $NVDA peak cycle earnings aren’t sustainable that’s why its P/E multiple is so low. I would SELL $NVDA at this point in the cycle.

@amitisinvesting Nice move. I am a fan of Reddit too. Im still waiting but your thesis is spot on. x.com/i/status/20554…

I bought $RDDT and $SHOP. Reddit has been a name that’s always been on my watchlist, first real deep dive I did was at $230 and I stayed away because of valuation. I think valuation concerns are more than resolved given the company has continued to grow and the stock has continued to go down. Shopify has a more expensive valuation but I do not think the street is accurately pricing in their role in agentic commerce and really it’s quite laughable how aggressively the street is ignoring the quarter they just put up. Both are absolutely massive compounders with accelerating growth that are down 40% YTD because they aren’t semiconductors. Hoping they fall another 20% to add more. Sold puts on $SHOP one month out for $90 and $RDDT at $130. Entry price on $RDDT is $142.57 and on $SHOP is $103.85. I also love that both businesses are still run by their founders. Looking to actually hold these names over the coming years so dips are likely and if the SaaS selloff or broader rotation out of anything semis gets worse than I would gladly welcome better prices.

@zephyr_z9 Good stuff! I have a position in it myself. Got in last month.

LFG!!!

@OxfordAnalytics Their GPUs are still significantly better in performance despite higher costs.

@OxfordAnalytics Real profit margins are in the 50s, not 70+. They had a one time other income gain that put it higher. Its worth noting this.

@JohnWickPencil @OxfordAnalytics No, the hyperscalers are the ones buying them...even if what you said were true (its not), you would see a far higher investing $$$ in Nvidia's cash flow statement.

@OxfordAnalytics nvda is buying a lot of gpus from themselves. they invest in shitco trash startups like coreweave then said startups buy their gpus with the invested money. any shitco company can have $100T profits if they keep buying from themself and register the sales as legit revenue

This is interesting, and worth considering...but how much of AI deployment would actually benefit Uber compared to other big tech? I struggle to imagine AI spending for Uber would make sense. Now you look at it for a company like Meta, with whatsapp, instagram, threads, facebook...maybe there is an ROI from implementing AI in those platforms. Just my two cents.

Uber’s COO has said that it’s getting “harder to justify” its AI costs because there was no way to show a link between AI spend and any meaningful increase in useful features. This is the first time I’ve seen a company say this directly. businessinsider.com/uber-coo-andre…

Circling back on this. Out of curiosity and boredom, I may try to find the 100-150 suppliers they have in Taiwan. I think it will be a challenge, but well worth it if it helps people find new investment areas.

@th3Oneorac3d 🔥 🔥 more to come

“From 0 to 23.4K impressions in basically no time… 🤯 Appreciate every like, reply, repost, bookmark and follow. Still learning, still building, still early. 🚀 Big thank you to everyone supporting the journey — the AI / semiconductor / future-tech community on here is unreal. 🙏 Road to the next level starts now.”

@LIWEI_TWCapital @kevinxu I think its because you are in Taiwan brother 😢 im here to support you ❤️

I’m genuinely not joking. Today I posted three times, including one post joking about @KevinXu (which ironically ended up being my most viewed post). In total, I only reached around 28K impressions today, and most of the analysis posts I spend hours researching and writing struggle to even reach 10K. I don’t know if it’s because I’m posting from a Taiwan IP, or if X has changed something in the algorithm, but it’s become incredibly difficult to grow and reach new people. What makes it frustrating is that this wasn’t nearly as noticeable in early May. Back then, my posts were still reaching a much broader audience. Now it often feels like I’m talking to myself. So if you enjoy my research or Taiwan market insights, I’d genuinely appreciate any likes, reposts, comments, or follows. Every bit of support helps more than you might think.

@LIWEI_TWCapital 💯

I put serious time and effort into researching and writing these posts, but my impressions are consistently under 10K, which has been quite frustrating. I would appreciate you can “repost” or “quote” my post, your support means a lot to me… 🙏

MssCorp (6830.TW) 汎銓科技Capacity Allocation: How Much Has Been “Booked” by NVIDIA and TSMC? — Taiwan Investor Consensus Breakdown Discussions in Taiwanese forums (CMoney and 股市同學會) have been active about how much of MSS’s Zhubei plant capacity has been secured by its two biggest clients: NVIDIA and TSMC. Here is a clear, logic-driven summary separating official facts from market consensus: Official Facts (from 2025–2026 earnings presentations & MOPS filings): • Zhubei Plant 1 has been expanded into a dedicated “AI Client Zone” offering the highest confidentiality standards and priority capacity allocation for a major US Tier-1 AI chip customer (widely understood to be NVIDIA), with strong emphasis on CPO and Silicon Photonics testing. • Zhubei Plant 2, the main Material Analysis headquarters, and the SAC-TEM Center primarily support Angstrom-era (sub-1.4 nm) material and failure analysis for leading foundry customers. • Zhubei Plant 3 (≈2,200 ping, expected completion late 2026–early 2027) is being developed as an additional AI / Silicon Photonics specialized zone under a client co-location model. MSS emphasizes a “dedicated zone + priority capacity” strategy rather than publicly announcing full-plant exclusivity contracts. Taiwan Investor Consensus (mainstream view across forums): • NVIDIA is believed to have already secured the majority of Zhubei Plant 1 and is expected to take ~70–75%+ of the new capacity in Zhubei Plant 3 for its CPO/SiPh roadmap. • TSMC continues to utilize substantial capacity in Zhubei Plant 2, headquarters, and SAC-TEM for advanced process development. • Overall view: Future incremental capacity (especially from Plant 3) is largely pre-allocated to these two strategic anchor clients, pointing to very high utilization rates once the new space comes online. Investment Logic: 1. Both NVIDIA (CPO/SiPh) and TSMC (leading-edge nodes) face extremely high and growing demand for advanced material/failure analysis during the Angstrom era. 2. The dedicated-zone model delivers security, customization, and priority — creating high switching costs for clients. 3. This dual-engine structure (NVIDIA + TSMC) provides strong order visibility while mitigating single-client concentration risk. Although no official “full-plant booking” contract has been disclosed, the strategic alignment and consistent forum consensus suggest MSS’s capacity expansion is not subject to open-market competition — it is largely pre-positioned for its two most important long-term partners. This dynamic is a core reason many Taiwanese investors remain optimistic about MSS’s growth trajectory heading into 2027 and beyond. Will the upcoming 5/27 earnings presentation provide more details? Sources & References: • MSS (6830.TW) Earnings Presentations (April 2026 & May 2026) • Official MOPS filings: mopsov.twse.com.tw/nas/STR/683020… • Market consensus discussions: CMoney and 股市同學會 (Taiwan stock forums) $6830 #SiliconPhotonics #CPO #AI #MSS

@Abdurah03 @TheBigBerbowski thank you. will do it next time 🫡

@pequityresearch @TheBigBerbowski I think you should do with ticker to get more engagement..Keep up the good work @pequityresearch

The physical AI supply chain - 121 public companies Reminder: Some of these names are potential beneficiaries of humanoid manufacturing, but some of them may not benefit at all. Not all of these names are winners. DYOR. BRAIN 1. Foundational Models - Alphabet - Meta - Nvidia - Microsoft - Alibaba - Tencent Holdings - Unity Software - Baidu 2. Data Science & Analytics - Oracle - Palantir 3. Simulation & Vision Software - Hexagon - Nvidia - Meta - Siemens - Dassault Systems 4. Vision & Compute Semis - Ambarella - Horizon Robotics - Intel - Mobileye - Nvidia - Qualcomm - Advanced Micro Devices - Sony - STMicroelectronics - NXP 5. Memory - Micron - SK Hynix - Samsung Electronics - Macronix International - Winbond Electronics 6. Chip Designers - Arm Holdings - CEVA Inc - Cadence Design Systems - Siemens - Synopsys 7. Fabrication - Texas Instruments - Samsung Electronics - United Microelectronics - Intel - GlobalFoundries - TSMC BODY 8. Actuator Components - NSK - RBC Bearings - Regal Rexford - Schaeffler - Timken - Nippon Thompson - JTEKT - Sanhua Intelligent Controls - Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic - Leader Harmonious Drive Systems - Hiwin Technologies - Shanghai Beiti - AB SKF - THK - Harmonic Drive System - Hota - Nabtesco - Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline - Estun - China Leadshine Technology - Shanghai Moons' Electric - Nidec - Sensata Technologies - Shenzhen Inovance - Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics - Ningbo ZhongDa Leader Intelligent Transmission - Sumitomo Heavy Industries - Nigbo Donly - JL Mag - Lynas Rare Earths - MP Materials - China Northern Rare Earth 9. Sensors - Analog Devices - Hexagon - Vishay Precision Group - Intel - Keyence - Onsemi - Robosense Technology - Sony - TE Connectivity - Teledyne Technologies - OmniVision Integrated Circuits - Aptiv - Magna - Valeo - Melexis - Allegro Microsystems - Keli Sensing - Novanta 10. Analog Devices - Renesas - STMicroelectronics - Texas Instruments - Infineon - NXP 11. Body, Wiring, Thermal - Amphenol - Aptiv - Magna - TE Connectivity - Ningbo Xusheng Group - Sanhua Intelligent Controls - Tuopo 12. Wide Range Solutions - Honeywell - Rockwell Automation - Hon Hai Precision/Foxconn 13. Battery - LG Energy Solution - Samsung SDI - CATL - Amprius Technologies INTEGRATORS 14. Autos - BYD - Guangzhou Automobile Group - Boston Dynamics/Hyundai - Tesla - Toyota - XPENG - Honda 15. Consumer Electronics - Apple - LG Electronics - Samsung Electronics - Xiaomi - Midea 16. Pure Plays - Rainbow Robotics - UBTech - Robotis - Cyberdyne 17. E-Commerce & Internet - Naver - Tencent - Amazon Access this spreadsheet for all the names, ticker, description, and headquarter 👇 docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…