@aleabitoreddit For those of us with a sub $300k portfolio. Which 5 names would you pick assuming we want one compounder and 4 high upside rockets?
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MeatusMaximus
27 posts
If you're curious about Goldman's Report:
They expect "significant EPS upside" among:
1. Optical modules and engines
2. CW lasers and EMLs
3. PCB/CCL manufacturers
Here's the massive cheat sheet:
Laser / Light Sources (SiPh): Sumitomo, Furukawa (5801), Landmark (3081), YJ Semi, $LITE, $COHR $AVGO, Etern (600105.SS), Everbright Photonics (688048.SS), Shijia Photons (688313.SS), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Accelink (002281.SZ), Mitsubishi (6503.T)
Laser / Light Sources (EML): Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Broadcom (AVGO), YJ Semi (688498.SS), Etern (600105.SS), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Everbright Photonics (688048.SS), Shijia Photons (688313.SS), Source Photonics (Private), Mitsubishi (6503.T), Accelink (002281.SZ), Furukawa (5801.T)
Passive Optical Components - Couplers / Splitters: FOCI (3363.TWO), Senko (Private), AFR (300620.SZ), Everprox (300548.SZ), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR)
Passive Optical Components - Filters: Shijia Photons (688313.SS), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Viavi (VIAV), FOCI (3363.TWO)
Passive Optical Components - Attenuators: Everprox (300548.SZ), Accelink (002281.SZ), FOCI (3363.TWO), Lumentum (LITE)
Passive Optical Components - WDM: AFR (300620.SZ), Everprox (300548.SZ), Accelink (002281.SZ), Ciena (CIEN), TFC Optical (300394.SZ), Lumentum (LITE), FOCI (3363.TWO)
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@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on if SIVE’s upcoming earnings will depress the equity value given earnings are LTM? How would you play earnings? Looking for advice
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Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO.
Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry).
“The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)”
“The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market.
You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years.
With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier.
This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.
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@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts on Mag7 earnings this week? Any chance they dial back CapEx in your opinion?
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Two most viral stories on $RDDT:
1. Turning $252K -> $7.7M with $AMD
2. Turning $167K -> $2.2M with $RKLB.
These stores are likely true, since it's possible to find these niche leaders to change your life around:
Again and again across different industries with semis to space.
What matters is:
-> Finding these rare gems / leaders in a niche field.
-> Having enough concentration, for it to matter.
-> Having enough conviction to sit through volatility.
-> Letting the thesis play out (even if it's across multiple years).
You've already seen me do it multiple times with photonics like $AXTI, $IQE, $SIVE, and others.
But everything is just speedran from 5 years to months due to AI capex acceleration.
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@aleabitoreddit @Gubloinvestor Do you expect this to be reflected in SIVE’s upcoming earnings call via guidance? Not sure what the usual timings of these things are, still learning
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@Gubloinvestor I mean anyone can just map it to Amazon through AlChip, Marvell, etc? Or Microsoft?
But sometimes markets like more concrete“proof” like photonic fabric purchase agreements from $AMZN that maps to $SIVE
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Just in case you were wondering who the end users of $SIVE likely were:
Sivers lasers -> $AMZN (Marvell's 8-K SEC filings).
Amazon has purchase agreements for "photonic fabric" from Celestial, which maps to Sivers lasers through two-hop connections.
Marvell's share value under the agreement was $87/share, so Amazon is very incentivized to buy as much as they can (Marvell is trading at $139+).
These volume orders help $SIVE the most out of this supply chain, given their size.
This is just one-relation to Amazon, I wanted to point out.
But at $720m MC...
Markets missed Sivers as the critical laser supplier for the upcoming hyperscaler optical supercycle based on new architectural changes.
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@aleabitoreddit What are your top 3 upside stocks right now? I know that SIVE is definitely one
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Yep… How did I call out and long.
FIFTEEN DIFFERENT STOCKS.
8+7. 9+6. 10+5.
After $ALRIB, the $MSFT Quantum supplier went up 113%, that hit 15 different longs.
That returned Triple Digits year to date???
No paywall, and I've posted everything before it moved.
Hard carrying retail out of the permanent underclass.
Afishyanadoh@afishyanadoh
@aleabitoreddit Was it you that mentioned Riber SA as well? $Alrib? It’s been flying as well.
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@aleabitoreddit Gun to your head, what are the 3 names for outsized returns the next 12 months in your opinion
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$NVDA is driving CPO, extremely, extremely hard.
As seen with investments in $MRVL, $LITE, and $COHR.
But, what's interesting is: CPO timelines are also happening way earlier than expected.
New report:
" $ASE Reportedly to Break Ground on Six New Plants in 2026, CPO Mass Production Expected to Begin This Year "
"He also revealed for the first time that mass production of CPO is expected to begin this year"
Probably a good time to frontrun CPO related names like $SIVE (lasers), Win Semi (foundry), $TSEM (foundry), $SOI (substrates), and others around now, before ramp really picks up.
The demand curve goes up exponentially all the way past 2029+, and I'm sure they'll break many projections.
But basically, I was talking about frontrunning CPO/SiPH names before OFC/GTC.
Turned out I was right on timing again?
CPO Ramp now looks like it's beginning H2 2026, get ready.
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@aleabitoreddit What do you anticipate the price action to be given Jane Street’s recent entry? Artificial price suppression for the next 6 months seems to be their playbook
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If you're new to $AAOI:
It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase.
However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK.
And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle...
At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections:
(est. Capacity * ASP Projections)
Q2 2026: ~$312.1M
Q4 2026: ~$1.41B
Q2-2027: ~$1.53B
Q4-2027: ~$1.97B
If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue...
$8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins…
Re-rating potential is enormous.
Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR.
Is it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)?
The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated.
$AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.
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Bias!
INVESTING IN PHOTONICS? $AEHR $POET $AAOI $OCC $LWLG $ALMU $IQE $AXTI A MUST READ!
People that you take information from on twitter are usually one of these (doesn't imply they're evil or similar):
- investing in the company already (or bagholding it)
- selling some sort of subscription
- engagement farm in some way
Most of them have an interest in your attention because:
- maybe you'll buy
- maybe you'll subscribe
- maybe you'll engage with the content
Each type has its own bias. Understanding WHO is writing something, and WHY helps you with the bias in their posts. Everyone has a bias, it's impossible to avoid it.
The best way to protect yourself is to know how to identify it.
99% of posts will always recommend a stock, hype it, talk about bull thesis, talking about moats, advantages and so on. It's simple, people want to buy into positives, people want to win, they want optimism.
Most of people here aren't really looking for truth, but for others who will reinforce their opinions.
Talking about recommendations for sale, playing it down, talking about bear thesis isn't interesting, nor it sells well.
This is important for all investors, regardless if it's photonics or not, but since twitter doesn't care about anything else than photonics today, I added it in the intro. I hope you find the post useful!
Best
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@GOATTRADER5184 So my personal picks out of the bunch were:
$SIVE, $TSEM, $AEHR, $SOI.
I like try and pick winners. As for current cycle it's:
$AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE
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The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet:
$SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers)
$TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry
$NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO
$HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays
$POET - Optical Interposers
$SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates
$FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly
$MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs
$LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials.
$GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers
$FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement
$BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding
Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others.
Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit?
If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment.
The alpha is capturing the rotation:
From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO.
Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles.
But that are in the next.
Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples.
Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI.
But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck.
The capital rotation is inevitable.
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$AAOI I have been seeing a lot of bearish takes on this name recently. I am still long.
The stock is down 26% from its all-time high of $127. The bear case has gotten louder. Here is why I think the bears are missing the asymmetry.
At $94, AAOI trades at roughly 8x FY2026 consensus revenue of $856M. Management guided above $1B, which brings that multiple down to around 7x.
LITE trades at approximately 14.5x forward revenue. COHR trades at roughly 7x.
AAOI is growing faster than both.
Now look at what half-execution on 2027 targets actually means:
Management said monthly transceiver revenue reaches $378M by mid-2027. That annualizes to $4.5B. At current prices you are paying roughly 1.6x that run rate.
If they deliver half of that you are still paying well under 3x revenue for a company growing triple digits with an in-house InP fab. That does not stay unpriced.
The Q4 results were real. Revenue of $134M, up 33.9% year over year, beating estimates. EPS of -$0.01 vs consensus of -$0.12. 1.6T volume order secured from a major hyperscale customer. Shipments starting Q3 2026.
Three hyperscale customers each expected to exceed 10% of FY2026 revenue. The single customer concentration risk the bears have cited for years is structurally gone.
The company is investing $300M to triple InP laser capacity in Texas by mid-2027. They are presenting at OFC on March 17th. Jensen speaks Monday.
The bear case requires management to miss badly on every single target simultaneously.
The bull case only requires them to be half right.
Full breakdown in the report. Link in bio.
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@aleabitoreddit @MichaelCla20642 Does this change the short term thesis? Do you expect price to drift for the next couple weeks? Just curious your thoughts
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@MichaelCla20642 Absolutely atrocious timing for to raise $250m -> $500M ATM. Should have been straight after the $200m hyperscaler deal.
The fact they finished their first $250M ATM is bullish though
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$RDDT is getting ridiculous.
Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the past few months.
If you strip out carry-forward losses, their net profit is ~28% of revenue, which is absolutely enormous.
And they’re growing forward revenues 50%+ Y/Y after 70%+ Y/Y growth.
If you ever look at $META, you know how much revenue can be optimized/user. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for monetization with Reddit.
It’s already derisked since IPO since Reddit is now one of the fastest growing and highest margin companies in the market.
One day if it pulls a $CRCL post earnings,
we’ll look back and wonder how this was valued at $24 billion MC.
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@aleabitoreddit @Sher_Lockknows This may be due to them raising their ATM sale program to $500M today, do you see this as a thesis breaker in the short term?
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Nothings changed with $AAOI and it looks like a buying opportunity.
I’d side with Rosenblatt analysts here where “The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B”.
Analysts can be bearish on execution, and scaling capacity was always the focal question.
Don’t think anything’s new around here and this will always be debated until they actually deliver. Hyperscaler demand is not a question.
$GOOGL and $AVGO also signaled pluggable transceiver life extensions, but since $AAOI covers the supply chain from laser to design to assembly, they can have optionality that most people miss
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Soitec ( $SOI / $SLOIF ) is now up 45.58%.
This has a long way to go given their substrate-level monopoly over the silicon photonics and CPO architectures.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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How does a random person posting their thoughts on a multi billion dollar company $SOI …
Send it up 20%
Am I that powerful now?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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@aleabitoreddit Do you think the chances are high for ORCL to scale back spending plans given the recent weakness they showed with the Texas location?
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$ORCL likely $AAOI hyperscaler client per
Rosenblatt analyst.
When I first posted about $AAOI everyone had extreme doubts like on my thesis post on $AXTI.
But don’t take it from me.
My exact same sentiment I shared after earnings is now echoed by other institutional analysts:
“The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B “
- Rosenblatt.
Likely a long way to go for repricing photonic names given revenue ramp.
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@HyperTechInvest Dude, do your homework and look at whom exactly sold. This is just BS fud
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@aleabitoreddit If you had to pick one winner to go all in on, which would it be?
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Photonics is the next major bottleneck.
$NVDA has signaled each one ahead of time from:
HBM (with Samsung/Sk Hynix) to CoWoS and now with the $LITE and $COHR investment:
Laser Fab, CPO, and InP.
For the most asymmetrical longs in each bottleneck:
1. InP Substrates: $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX
2. InP Upstream Feedstock + Processing: $AXTI
3. Lasers: $AAOI (internal), $AVGO, $COHR, $LITE
4. CPO: $TSEM, Soitec.
The laser bottleneck was confirmed from the $AAOI earnings call when three different hyperscaler wanted to buy out any optical transceiver they can produce.
The InP substrate bottleneck was confirmed with the backlog from $AXTI. (Image source of players: IndexBox)
And the CPO bottleneck is widely expected to happen later in late 2027-2028.
There's short term volatility from $AVGO comments around "CPO" in specific. But that's different than the laser -> transceiver and InP bottlenecks happening now.
For timeframes:
$AAOI, $LITE, $COHR and the laser transceiver bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse like memory into 2028).
$AXTI, Sumitomo and the InP substrate bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse as long as AI uses photonics for the many years to come).
And the larger architectural shift to CPO led by $NVDA will likely happen in 2028.
These feel inevitable for the next paradigm shift in AI.
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