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@grok Imagine brings memes from my book to life #GrokImagine

@audio_boomer @KobeissiLetter bots have difficulty when dates are involved, I understand

@MemeStudier @KobeissiLetter On this day in 2016, the party candidates weren’t even selected yet, fucking imbecile

BREAKING: The odds of the Democratic Party winning the US Senate in the 2026 Midterms rises to 52%, the highest level on record. On February 27th, the day before the Iran War began, Republicans had a 60% chance of winning the Senate.

@NewtypeTrades @KobeissiLetter we had predictions markets back then too sonny boy!

@MemeStudier @KobeissiLetter Those were polls These are prediction markets. Ppl actually putting money on the line now. I dont think we can draw similarities with the two

@Whoknewnow @shanaka86 If Europe is OK with paying Strait tolls, I've got a great business idea.

@shanaka86 Just like Golden Age of Barbary piracy, when Europeans paid ransom by the literal boatload, some Europeans and Obama even Emirs would rather pay Iran pallets of unmarked bills in tribute to “open” the Strait. Trump prefers literal trillion(s) for defense. NATO as is is toast.

BREAKING: While Trump posted “48 hours before all Hell will reign down,” the European leader closest to him was in Doha telling Italian national television: “This time, we do not agree.” Giorgia Meloni became the first EU, NATO, G7, and G20 leader to set foot in the Gulf since the war began on February 28. She flew into countries under active bombardment to negotiate gas contracts. The UAE engaged 23 ballistic missiles and 56 Iranian drones on the same day she was scheduled to arrive there. She came anyway. She came for gas. Italy gets 10 percent of its total gas consumption from Qatari LNG. Qatar’s Ras Laffan export facility was hit by Iranian missiles, losing 17 percent of its capacity. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on Italian cargoes, cancelling five shipments. Meloni sat in Lusail Palace with the Amir and pledged that Italy would contribute to restoring Qatari energy infrastructure damaged by Iranian bombing. She reaffirmed the necessity of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. She did not offer a single warplane to help reopen it. Italy denied the US use of Sigonella airbase for offensive operations. Meloni’s government called the strikes a “dangerous trend outside international law.” And then she flew to the Gulf to negotiate the supply of the molecule that cannot flow because the strait she will not help open remains closed. The Bank of Italy lowered GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing the war. Italy breached the EU’s deficit ceiling last year. Italian families are paying for a war Italy refused to join, in fuel prices set by a strait Italy will not help reopen, for gas produced by allies Italy supports diplomatically but not militarily. Meloni told RAI: “I continue to believe that, geopolitically, Europe has little to gain from a divergence with the United States, but our duty is, first and foremost, to defend our national interests, and when we disagree, we must say so.” That sentence was delivered from the Gulf, to Italian cameras, about an American war, by the leader Trump once called “fantastic” and treated as his closest European ally. The friendship is not over. But the sentence “this time, we do not agree” is the most significant public break between a European leader and the American president since the war began. It came not from Macron, who blocked the UN resolution. Not from Starmer, who is hosting the Hormuz summit from London. It came from Meloni, the one Trump expected to stand with him. The day before Meloni arrived in Doha, eight Iranians were killed when the B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj was struck. They had gathered underneath the unfinished structure to celebrate Sizdah Bedar, the Iranian holiday known as Nature Day. They were picnicking. The bridge collapsed on them. Over 3,000 people have died across the Middle East since February 28. The strait is closed. The gas is trapped. The ally who was supposed to help is negotiating contracts instead. And the leader who promised all Hell is posting countdowns while his closest European friend tells the camera, on the record, in the Gulf, that she disagrees. The alliance did not fracture over ideology. It fractured over a molecule that cannot pass through a 34-kilometre strait. Meloni needs the gas. She will not fight for the strait. And the distance between those two positions is the distance between a partnership and a transaction. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@unclebeefcake @KobeissiLetter the point is that things can change a lot... in hillarys case, she hit 91% in Oct and on day of election was at 85%, then lost. that was great.

@MemeStudier @KobeissiLetter Im sure this comparison makes sense when you get your worldview from shitty memes

@swiftlystiles @KobeissiLetter pretty sure Trump had already become Hitler incarnate by April 2016... but he didnt become a Russian puppet using a secret bank server to coordinate election interference with Russia until October-ish, when Hillarys chances moved to 90%+.

@MemeStudier @KobeissiLetter But was there a global crisis in that period of time?

@KobeissiLetter Baghdad Bob says what

BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi says Iran's position on peace talks in Pakistan is being "misrepresented by US media." "We are deeply grateful to Pakistan for its efforts and have never refused to go to Islamabad. What we care about are the terms of a conclusive and lasting END to the illegal war that is imposed on us," he says

@risicare_eth @JamesWebb_16 No, that's ridiculous. Iran has the lowest score against us by far of any enemy we've ever engaged, except Venezuela. Venezuela lost 0 to about 500. Iran is losing about 1 to 1000, which is better than 0 but not by much!

@JamesWebb_16 It’s always been US policy to not allow Iran to have a nuke - spanning 5+ administrations. That said, I agree with you - severe miscalculation imo - Iran is much more difficult than any other adversary the US has had since the Cold War / WWII.

I just heard from a source very close to top of the White House that, following today’s shootdown of an F-15, an A-10, and the successful hits on multiple helicopters and other aircraft, the WH is choosing further escalation, including US troops on the ground. This would be madness. I truly hope that someone in the Pentagon or elsewhere can prevent this from happening. If anything was proven today, it’s that Iranian AD is still very capable and very intact. Any US ground operation will be heavily reliant on helicopters and other slow-moving airframes. Despite the assertions of both the Pentagon and POTUS, it is crystal clear that we have not reduced Iranian AD to the point where a ground operation is even a remotely wise decision. Let alone potentially inserting by air and then being exclusively reliant on an air corridor for things such as resupply and CASEVAC. History is replete with examples where this reliance has been disastrous. Further, the hard part would be after troops were on the objective. Our lack of manpower leaves little room for maneuver, and once static (which would be required), Americans will become a stationary target for the entire inventory of Iranian indirect fire capabilities on Iranian soil, and it is a recipe for failure. Simply put, this is not an existential war for the US's survival. It’s a war of choice that should never have happened in the first place, and POTUS should be finding a way out, rather than clumsily and recklessly sacrificing America’s finest.

@AMH_Andrew @ABridgen you're right that prince of Persia is strong. i think these activities will set him back about 20 years.

@ABridgen Good luck with that America. Persia has never been successfully invaded for over 5000 years. But history and geography are not your strong points I guess.

The land invasion of Iran is being prepared. The large U.S. Air Force airlift to Europe and the Middle East continued today, with several C-5, C-17, and KC-135 aircraft crossing the Atlantic — Flightradar24 Source: @insiderpaper

@NeckHurtsBad88 @douglassmackey I agree. all infrastructure will be bombed to the stone ages and all men of fighting age will be slaughtered from the sky.

@douglassmackey He's much more likely to blow up their civilian infrastructure than do a ground invasion

Re: Kharg Island invasion “There are no half-measures there,” Irisov said. “The U.S. needs to land over 100,000 troops on the whole shoreline to defend and protect these islands and the strait. All other ways will end up in massive American casualties.” msn.com/en-us/news/wor…

@KobeissiLetter my sources say this is not true

BREAKING: Sources close to the Trump Administration say US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is "going after" people because he is worried about being fired, per NY Post. "Hegseth is very concerned about being fired and he knows that US Army Secretary Driscoll is one of the top contenders to succeed him. So what Pete has been doing is taking anyone he perceives to be close with Driscoll and going after them," the source said.

@KobeissiLetter tds fud smears ignore

BREAKING: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly "paranoid" about losing his job, which Trump Admin officials say contributed to the firing of the US Army’s top general on Thursday, per NY Post. Details include: 1. Trump Admin officials say Pete Hegseth is worried about Army Secretary Dan Driscoll taking his job 2. Hegseth on Thursday demanded the resignation of Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, Driscoll’s top aide, for reasons that were not publicly stated 3. "This is all driven by the insecurity and paranoia that Pete has developed since Signalgate," an official said 4. "It has really gotten under Hegseth’s skin. He is trying to make everyone around Driscoll suffer for no reason," an official said There seem to be growing tensions at the Department of War.

@BrianRoemmele Got the same email. What's the best local LLM to use in its place?

ANTHROPIC HAS OFFICIALLY BANNED OPENCLAW USAGE! The self inflicted hits keep getting bigger and bigger. When devs finally get something close they are gone.

it's called, keep them guessing. its called smart fighting. and yes, we will take at least enough oil to pay ourselves back for all the ammo and equipment we've expended enforcing the No Nukes For You rule. and also reparations for all the people who have suffered because of them these past 50 years.

@KobeissiLetter So three different oil statements in 48 hours. Yesterday “no role” in Hormuz. This morning “take the oil.” Tonight “keep the oil.”

PRESIDENT TRUMP ON IRAN: “Keep the oil, anyone?”

@KobeissiLetter sounds desperate

BREAKING: Iran's Speaker of the Parliament releases a statement on the downed US F-15E fighter jet: "After defeating Iran 37 times in a row, this brilliant no-strategy war they started has now been downgraded from 'regime change' to 'Hey! Can anyone find our pilots? Please?' Wow. What incredible progress. Absolute geniuses."

@KobeissiLetter Thank God the one was found!

BREAKING: US officials confirm that one of the two crew members from the US fighter jet that was shot down over Iran has been rescued. The status of the second crew member is unknown as a search and rescue continues.

this is the kind of balanced deal that was possible BEFORE we blew them half way back to the stone ages, except it doesnt have any reparations for all the lives Iran has destroyed the past 50 years. now we are very close to being able to take all the oil. just a few more underground bunkers to bury forever. unconditional surrender is the most reasonable outcome.

@ragipsoylu It would be idiotic of the US to reject such a deal, but would Iran accept it? It clearly serves the interests of Iran's people but it essentially amounts to regime change: no exporting the revolution/ proxies, no enmity with the US, entry into regional and global frameworks.

Iranian President Pezeshkian's close ally Zarif reveals Iranian proposal to end the war: - IRAN STEPS FOLLOWING THE END OF THE HOSTILITIES 1- Commit never to seek nuclear weapons 2- Down-blend enriched uranium to below 3.67 percent 3- Ratify the IAEA Additional Protocol for permanent monitoring 4- Ensure safe commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman 5- Sign a permanent nonaggression pact with the United States 6- Participate in a regional security framework 7- Transfer enriched uranium and related equipment to a regional enrichment consortium 8- Remove terrorism-related designations on the United States 9- Restore diplomatic/consular channels 10- Remove travel restrictions on U.S. citizens 11- Invite oil companies, including American ones, to help facilitate exports 12- China, Russia, and possibly regional states may serve as guarantors of the agreement. - THE US STEPS: 1-Remove unilateral U.S. sanctions on Iran 2-Allow Iran to export oil freely and repatriate the proceeds 3- Accept that Iran will retain some non-weapons-level nuclear program rather than demand zero enrichment 4- Terminate UN Security Council resolutions against Iran 5- Allow Iran to participate normally in global supply chains 6- Sign a permanent nonaggression pact with Iran 6- Finance reconstruction in Iran 7- Compensate Iranian civilians for losses 8- Participate in a regional security framework 9- Help create the regional enrichment consortium 10- Remove terrorism-related designations on Iran 11-- Restore diplomatic/consular channels with Iran 12- Remove travel restrictions on Iranian citizens 13- Cooperate on trade, energy, and technology projects read the full article here: foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/ho…

@shanaka86 "cannot legally..." I don't think that word means what you think it means

BREAKING: Trump told the world to take the strait. The world went to the United Nations to get permission. Russia, China, and France said no. On April 2, Bahrain brought a fourth draft resolution to the Security Council authorising member states to “use all defensive means necessary to secure transit passage” through the Strait of Hormuz for a minimum of six months. It was the product of weeks of negotiation among Gulf states watching their economies suffocate while 84 tankers exited Hormuz in the entire month of March, a volume that used to move in a single day. Russia broke silence. China broke silence. And France, a NATO ally whose largest shipping company CMA CGM has 14 vessels trapped in the Gulf, broke silence alongside them. The objections were coordinated. Russia and China called the text “one-sided” and demanded focus on “root causes.” Macron called a military operation “unrealistic.” No vote was held. The resolution died in the drafting room. The strait remained closed. And every Gulf state that heard Trump say “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT” now knows that the legal cover to do so does not exist. This is the diplomatic kill shot nobody is pricing correctly. Without a UN mandate, any multinational naval operation in the strait operates without international legal authority. Warships engaging IRGC fast boats or clearing mines would act under national rules of engagement alone, exposing every government to legal liability and domestic political risk. The UK’s 35-nation meeting to “marshal capabilities” was already aspirational. Without a resolution, it is also unauthorised. France’s position is the fracture that reveals the architecture. Paris denied airspace to Israeli military resupply flights. Now it has blocked the resolution that would free its own ships. CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest container shipping company, is a French firm headquartered in Marseille with 14 vessels anchored or diverted because of the closure. France chose diplomatic positioning with Beijing and Moscow over the commercial interests of its own national champion. That is not neutrality. That is a strategic calculation that the relationship with China matters more than the cargo. And China’s position is the most revealing of all. Chinese vessels already transit the strait freely under the IRGC’s selective passage regime. China does not need the strait reopened for everyone. It needs it open for China. And it is. The toll is paid in yuan. The clearance is granted. Chinese tankers pass while European, Japanese, and Korean vessels sit anchored. Beijing is profiting from the closure while blocking the resolution that would end it. The current regime gives China a competitive advantage it has never had in global energy markets, and the Security Council veto is the instrument that preserves it. Trump told allies to fight. The IRGC published what happens to their bridges if they do. And now the Security Council has told them they cannot legally secure the strait even if they wanted to. Caught between a president demanding action, an IRGC threatening retaliation, and a council withholding authority. The strait is not just closed by Iran. It is closed by the international order itself. The alliance did not break over a threat. It broke over a choice. And the choice was made in a room where three vetoes weigh more than twenty million barrels a day. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@tahinmiddin121 @KobeissiLetter yes, exactly. nukes for me and not for thee. you got it right.

@MemeStudier @KobeissiLetter So it’s ok for US to have nukes but when others do the same it’s a no no? How deluded can you be? Let me slap you and you better be a good boy and take it. That’s literally what you’re saying with that dumbass response.

BREAKING: Iran's President Pezeshkian has officially released an "open letter" to the American people. The letter states: 1. Iran harbors "no enmity" toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighboring countries 2. Recent US actions are "aggression" targeting civilians and infrastructure, setting up for long-term global instability 3. "What Iran has done, and continues to do, is a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense" 4. The decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal was "made by the US government" 5. "Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before" Pezeshkian concludes by saying, "the choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors." We now await Trump's address to the US at 9 PM ET.

@guyontheearth @_The_Prophet__ you're just mad at all the winning. stinks to be a demon.

I dont simp for Trump. He lies on camera daily. These lies can be easily fact checked from multiple sources. And yet here you are telling me Donald Trump is directly responsible for stopping 8 wars. Shut the fuck up dude. Get some perspective. Engage your brain. Read a fucking book for Christ's sake..

⚡️This means the strangulation phase is starting to bite into the real economy. That is the signal. A shutdown at Iran’s largest steel producer would mean the pressure is moving beyond military humiliation and into industrial state function. Steel is not some decorative sector. It sits inside construction, infrastructure, machinery, internal confidence, labor stability, and the regime’s broader ability to project normalcy. When a flagship producer goes dark, the message is bigger than one company. The message is that the economy is losing the ability to pretend the war is still compartmentalized. That fits the broader pattern exactly. The campaign started with military asymmetry. Then came the threat ladder against power, oil, and the wider economy. Now the visible signs are showing up in strategic industry. That means the war is being translated into domestic economic degradation. The regime is no longer just absorbing blows. It is starting to lose productive continuity. The deepest truth is simple. Once major industrial lines shut, the regime’s bargaining problem changes. A military regime can survive airstrikes longer than it can survive the slow corrosion of basic economic function. Missiles and speeches can preserve pride for a while. Payroll, electricity, production, transport, and internal business confidence determine whether the state still feels governable. This is where coercion starts becoming political. That also explains why this matters for timing. A steel shutdown does not mean instant collapse. It means the internal cost curve is steepening. Every additional day of disruption compounds through suppliers, workers, utilities, logistics, and sentiment. The pain starts moving from symbolic national resistance into lived economic decay. That is the phase where regimes become more likely to probe for deniable exits, softer channels, and face saving formulas.