Michele Guieu

Thrilled to collaborate with @daniellerch and @postcarbon on the cover art for this significant report. The creative journey was truly inspiring and I am grateful for this meaningful opportunity to contribute. #showyourstripes #artandscience

The world is about 2" away from hitting the wall at full speed and most can't even seen it coming. Imminent energy shortages in parts of the world and for the rest, significantly higher prices. The battle for the physical barrel has begun.

Je vais employer un mot fort : alarmant. Vous pouvez me le reprocher (ou m'insulter). Mais je l’assume, car il est justifié. Les prévisions sont alarmantes, oui : nous nous dirigeons vers l’un des (ou le ?) El Niño les plus puissants jamais observés depuis le début des mesures. Comment je justifie l'emploi de ce terme "alarmant" ? ➡️Parce qu’El Niño agit comme un accélérateur ponctuel de chaleur à l’échelle mondiale. ➡️En plus de cela, de nombreux travaux montrent une accélération du réchauffement climatique (depuis 2015). ➡️Et depuis le précédent El-Nino, les températures mondiales semblent décrocher des trajectoires habituelles. On voit sur la carte que, dans la zone clé du Pacifique équatorial (domaine de El-Nino), les anomalies de température de surface de la mer pourraient atteindre +2,5 à +3°C en moyenne. Autrement dit. Comme ça c'est clair : on ajoute une couche de chaleur exceptionnelle sur un climat déjà fortement réchauffé qui ne s'est pas encore remis du dernier El-Nino. Il est donc très probable que les records mondiaux (déjà pulvérisés il y a à peine deux ans) soient de nouveau battus, et largement, dès cette année... Je crois que, pour la plupart, vous ne vous rendez pas compte des conséquences et notamment agricoles, dans un contexte géopolitique extrêmement tendu.

NEW: The Fall of the American Empire We are about to enter a period of unprecedented turbulence as the system enters catastrophic decline. This is a deep dive systems analysis connecting the war on Iran, the seizure of Venezuela, the peaking of US shale oil, record global debt, the Israeli blueprint to redraw the Middle East map, and the Hegseth doctrine of "Greater North America" into a single framework. This piece traces the pattern from Rome's collapse through the 'adaptive cycle' to show that America is doing exactly what dying empires always do: expanding outward at maximum aggression as their material foundations give way. It then lays out the seven strategic shifts that Europe, the UK, and the Global South must make - now - to survive what's coming and build the next system. You won't find this analysis anywhere else. Please read it and share. ageoftransformation.org/the-last-empir…

This means our democracies are cosmetic, not real. This means our rule of law is selective & superficial, not real. This means we "Westerners" are living in a superficial, dangerous illusion. We think we are safe & reasonable: in fact we are dangerous & irrational. 3/

Giving up? The true magnitude of what's happening has never been properly conveyed by the lowest-common-denominator consensus science community. In December James Hansen, arguably the world's best climate scientist, released a paper stating that the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere heat this planet to 10 degrees Celsius (not a typo) and that: "Decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade." And just now, also arguably the world's best climate scientist, V. Ramanathan, published a paper which says: "The 18% decrease in the columnar aerosol loading, revealed by the large-scale geophysical perturbation experiment resulting from the COVID-19 shutdown, led to an increase in radiative forcing by 1.4 Wm² when averaged over South Asia for the springtime. If this were to happen over wide scales, as we would expect from a 100% switchover from fossil fuels to zero-emission renewables, the net radiative heating would increase drastically." The person who is really giving up is the person who spends their time fantasising about climate 'solutions' and 'goals' instead of focusing on protecting children and the vulnerable from imminent, inevitable, catastrophic climate impacts. It can't be overstated that all climate 'solutions' and 'goals' originate from the fossil fuel industry, not from climate scientists. Consensus climate scientists aren't allowed to come up with their own solutions and goals.

@mirwijn @jonathanstea @DocBastard What?! Read the post again.

@jonathanstea @DocBastard Aren’t these science deniers just the kindest and most charming human beings?

It has taken medical science 200 years to advance humans to the point where people are so healthy and living so long that they can deny that science and medicine is what got us here. - @DocBastard

An article at Phys.Org is titled Air pollution cuts in East Asia likely accelerated global warming. Published on 14 July 2025, the article includes a link to a peer-reviewed paper, as indicated in the lede: “The cleanup of air pollution in East Asia has accelerated global warming, a new study … in the journal Communications Earth and Environment has found.” Global warming, driven primarily by emissions of greenhouse gases, has been accelerating for the past 15 years, leading to record-breaking surface temperatures. Over the same period, countries in East Asia have made strong efforts to clean up air pollution, which is important for public health. The largest air pollution clean-up has been made in China, where ambient air pollution is responsible for about 1 million deaths a year. But air pollution has also helped cool the climate. Sulfate aerosols, arising from burning fossil fuels, can shade Earth's surface from sunlight. Air pollution has therefore inadvertently held in check some greenhouse gas driven warming.” Via Guy McPherson open.substack.com/pub/guymcphers…

L’accélération de la fréquence des sécheresses et des canicules précipite le dépérissement de nos forêts. La biogéographie des espèces évolue rapidement, laissant certaines d’entre elles en dehors de leur zone climatique de tolérance. Depuis six ans, ce dépérissement s’intensifie brutalement. Si rien ne change, plusieurs espèces pourraient quasiment disparaître de nos paysages d’ici 2100. Les forêts françaises telles que nous les connaissons aujourd’hui sont en sursis. D’ici 50 ans, elles pourraient avoir profondément changé de visage. Je vous propose un thread à partir des données de ClimEssences, avec pour commencer… la claque que prend le bouleau, peu adaptée à la sécheresse estivale récurrente. Il possède un système racinaire peu profond, ce qui le rend particulièrement vulnérable. [1/10]

Capitalism has no pause button. Every forest is timber, every fish is stock, every breath of air a dumping ground. Infinite growth on a finite planet isn’t just unsustainable, it’s ecocidal design. Collapse isn’t the warning, it’s the business plan.

Overshoot has consequences: "The world is in a genuine predicament, trapped between the toughest of rocks and most unyielding of hard places—decisive action would destroy the world as we know it; inaction could destroy the world as we know it. " buildingsandcities.org/insights/comme…

A little list ...

Everyone needs to know that these fires were made possible by global heating, which is caused by the fossil fuel industry, which has lied and blocked action for half a century. And that this will all get much, much, much worse until we end the fossil fuel industry

People are saying this is like a scene out of an apocalyptic movie. It is an apocalyptic movie. And most people are ignoring the scientists #PalisadesWildfire #ClimateCrisis

The industrial economy - with capitalism, colonialism, and imperialism still the dominant systems after hundreds of years - is like a giant, horrifying, out-of-control experiment. It's annihilating the majority of species within decades not centuries. Rapid extinction headlines?

This isn’t bad news it’s absolutely dreadful news. The IPCC forecast already relies heavily upon removing GHG’s with technology that doesn’t exist yet. Without natural CO2 sinks, atmospheric levels will be off the charts & so will warming. We must stop emissions or we’re history!

'Donald Trump’s pledge to exit the Paris climate agreement is “something of grave, grave concern” to climate-vulnerable countries' "Climate-vulnerable countries" implies some countries are not vulnerable to climate impacts. #block-67348bfa8f08565e0bd0119f" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">theguardian.com/environment/li… 1/🧵

We need to shut down huge parts of the global economy. I know, it sounds extreme. But the alternative is nature will shut it all down for us

Climate protesters are jailed for throwing soup on glass covering paintings. Nature is making daily car soup. 🚗 🍲

@violin4all @robintransition @CE_workshop I am 😊, but also worried, of course. He is collapse-aware and knows that overshoot and biodiversity loss are the most significant aspects of our poly-crisis. But learning is power, and I am confident he will find a meaningful way to navigate the rough seas ahead.

@MicheleGuieu @robintransition @CE_workshop You must be so proud. 🥹

I wish young people today could experience the sheer number of insects that existed 40 years ago. I really miss them.

@violin4all @robintransition @CE_workshop Thank you. His passion for the nearly invisible world helps me better understand my ecosystem, including the interactions and connections among various living organisms. I am in awe every day, but I wish there would be more insects to observe here, especially butterflies.

@MicheleGuieu @robintransition @CE_workshop Thank you so much. Best of luck to him. I hope he can help us understand insects better so we can let them thrive.