Michigan Value Investor

1.4K posts

Michigan Value Investor

Michigan Value Investor

@Michigan_Value

Yup, it's really me, the one and only MVI

Do you really have to ask? Katılım Haziran 2024
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
$HROW FCF/share: $1 in 2025, $4 in 2026 (and zero net debt), $10 in 2027, and growing from there. Stock is at $53. Any questions?
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
@Ron_Trades Monthly NRx, left to right December to January 2026 vs March to January so far. NRx is new prescriptions
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
$HROW Vevye NRx needed for $200M+ '26 revenue: 11,530 10,862 10,194 9,526 8,858 8,190 7,522 6,853 6,185 5,517 4,849 4,181 2026 so far: 5,330 4,970 4,181 5,330 = week of 3/6; March still ramping... On track for now, finger's crossed
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
$HROW More on the Ilevro study. Use of Ilevro cuts the risk of vision loss in half in this patient group. In. Half. "BCVA loss occurred in 17.2%... versus 34.5%..." TAM is maybe $150M. What sort of monster refuses Ilevro for their at-risk patients? ascrs.confex.com/ascrs/26am/mee…
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
$HROW hiring way ahead of schedule. Plan was to hire 50 new Vevye reps by memorial day. Listings went live mid Feb, only 4 positions left to fill. People in the business get it. Talent is flooding to HROW harrow.com/careers
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
$HROW Ilevro cuts the risk of vision loss in half, guys. In. Half. "BCVA loss occurred in 17.2% of nepafenac-treated subjects (48/279) versus 34.5% of vehicle-treated subjects (96/278)..."
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
$HROW: Grok's answer: What TAM does this specific use case open up for ILEVRO? The abstract targets a defined high-risk subgroup within the ~4–4.5 million annual U.S. cataract surgeries: patients who already have or are at elevated risk for macular edema (especially diabetics, who represent ~20% of cataract patients and have 5–10× higher CME risk).Rough TAM calculation for this niche (conservative, using public cataract volume data + typical ILEVRO net pricing after discounts/HAFA program):Eligible high-risk patients: ~400k–600k per year (10–15% of total cataract volume, focused on the macular-edema-relevant subset the abstract addresses) Net revenue per course to Harrow: ~$160–$220 (retail bottle price ~$450–$480, but heavy rebating/access programs bring realized price down) Realistic peak adoption in this subgroup with fresh supportive data: 30–50% → Implied peak revenue opportunity from this ILEVRO niche: $40M–$75M annually
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
$HROW PR this morning may imply that Ilevro is poised to enter a new market. FWIW Grok says this will peak at $40M to $75M incremental revenue. From the PR: "ILEVRO® (nepafenac ophthalmic suspension) 0.3% have been accepted for presentation at the American Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgery (ASCRS) 2026 Annual Meeting" Highly speculative, but we know that 3 smaller drugs are about to expand meaningfully, one based on a coding decision and the other two based on clinical trials. Here's the PR: harrow.com/news-releases/…
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
$HROW Vevye real world efficacy study: "(p < 0.001)... significant improvement in both patient-reported symptoms and objective clinical signs of dry eye disease in this real-world patient cohort..." To be presented at: American Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgery (ASCRS) 2026 Annual Meeting, taking place April 10–13 ascrs.confex.com/ascrs/26am/mee…
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Fishtown Capital
Fishtown Capital@FishtownCap·
@Michigan_Value But it's so much faster to guess a number out of thin air! Again, nice job. I'm on board here now (smaller position because this is really not my wheelhouse.)
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Fishtown Capital
Fishtown Capital@FishtownCap·
@Michigan_Value Did you do a DCF with made up numbers that have no relation to what the company is guiding? Because I really enjoyed that from the last person that wrote this up.. Great update, thanks!
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
@Michigan_Value Based on management commentary, upcoming catalysts and their ~3 year guidance (2027 Q4)… if this stock isn’t up at least 5x over the next 3 years I’ll be surprised… and it means the company missed those 2027/2028 financial targets.
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Atticus Shondermath
Atticus Shondermath@Atticus44351·
@Michigan_Value I still don't see it on SeekingAlpha. Must take a long time before they review and publish....looking forward to the article!
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
Growing share of a growing category and a rising ASP will do that. ASP is rising because Vevye has won Tier 1 insurance coverage at CVS. Previously 35% covered and 65% cash pay at $59. Now 50% covered. Insurance pays ~$300, so ASP heading up. $146 Q4/25 => $180 Q4/27.
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
Will the category suddenly stop growing? Will Vevye suddenly stop gaining share like this, even as they are about to double their salesforce? Fair questions. But at this pace Q4/27 Vevye revenue=$112M.
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
$HROW Bloomberg Vevye 3/6/26 NRx, 13wk TRX at new all time high. Category growing 22%, share up to 13.75%. Extrapolate this chart. Branded DED 1.6M Q4/25=>2.4M Q4/27; Vevye share 26%; ASP $180=>Q4/27 Veyve revenue=$112M
Michigan Value Investor tweet media
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
@Russell_A1221 hmmm, not sure. what would I say about it other than Daniel is the largest shareholder in my investing service?
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Michigan Value Investor
Michigan Value Investor@Michigan_Value·
$HROW "It's a massive advantage to feel like you know a company well enough and have enough confidence to buy with conviction when the stock drops. I tend to buy in all such cases and bought quite heavily this time and I've made good money from taking these opportunities. I can understand though how this would be difficult for someone who doesn't know the company as well. Holding HROW stock is not for the faint or heart ... and probably also not for those who don't have a very high degree of conviction in their holding. Because where we see a buying opportunity on a 40% drop they (misguidedly) see strong evidence that their thesis was incorrect. It was kind of shocking to see some of the public SA comments after this last ER. The majority of people were trashing HROW and their performance. It just shows you how out of touch the average investor actually is, but I suppose we should be thankful for it, because we can profit greatly off of their ignorance and stupidity." - One of my subs posted this and it's spot on
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