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$HROW It's always amazing to me how price moves dictate sentiment when the businesses themselves have done nothing materially different than expected. Consider ETON and HROW recently, both the subjects of my recent SA public articles. In each case I bought lower originally, $5.70 for HROW and $3.50 for ETON, but never mind that, let's just think about YTD 2026.
Nothing has changed about the value of either stock YTD. Everything long term is exactly what it's always been. That's something like $100 for ETON and something like $500 for HROW by the end of the decade, call it 2030. Anyone can easily see this for themselves by looking even the most basic long term metrics over time - revenue growth, EBITDA margin growth - and then asking if the elements are in place for continued growth, as they clearly are. The details are uncertain, as is the timing. But the basic range of value centering around these targets, there has been practically no news at all.
And yet... ETON's price from the lows YTD has doubled and HROW's price from the highs this year has been cut almost in half. Zero change in value, no news that matters to value has been learned, long term targets not changed. Short term prices have moved the relative price of these two stocks by a factor of 4.
In each case, the stocks are simple to understand and easy to model over longer periods. HROW in particular is harder to model quarter by quarter because of the huge seasonality and the issues surrounding regulation and insurance, neither of which apply to ETON. So on a quarterly basis, ETON is easy. But both are very simple over a period of years.
If you are a value investor, something will click about what I just said. Buffett always said value investing is simple, but it isn't easy. And that it doesn't take a lot of IQ - anything over 120 is a waste is what he said, not sure I agree - but the real trick is the right mindset. Someone losing their mind over this short term price movement and letting fanciful stories impact their decisions when the long term trends are as plain as day, that person may have the required 120+ IQ, but clearly lacks the right mindset.
Buffett always said, too, that you can't teach that mindset. It either makes sense to you or it doesn't. I include this commentary here for those who have that mindset, but who are second guessing themselves right now. If that's you, ignore the fearful short termers who let the market tell them what to think, think for yourself instead, and act according to your views. For the rest, I wish you well, good luck!
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