Ongun

@Michigan_Value Management is missing guidance every fucking quarter. If you don’t have a clue what your revenues will be, don’t issue guidance man, and obviously it’s a shitty business, since they don’t have pricing power.

$HROW It's always amazing to me how price moves dictate sentiment when the businesses themselves have done nothing materially different than expected. Consider ETON and HROW recently, both the subjects of my recent SA public articles. In each case I bought lower originally, $5.70 for HROW and $3.50 for ETON, but never mind that, let's just think about YTD 2026. Nothing has changed about the value of either stock YTD. Everything long term is exactly what it's always been. That's something like $100 for ETON and something like $500 for HROW by the end of the decade, call it 2030. Anyone can easily see this for themselves by looking even the most basic long term metrics over time - revenue growth, EBITDA margin growth - and then asking if the elements are in place for continued growth, as they clearly are. The details are uncertain, as is the timing. But the basic range of value centering around these targets, there has been practically no news at all. And yet... ETON's price from the lows YTD has doubled and HROW's price from the highs this year has been cut almost in half. Zero change in value, no news that matters to value has been learned, long term targets not changed. Short term prices have moved the relative price of these two stocks by a factor of 4. In each case, the stocks are simple to understand and easy to model over longer periods. HROW in particular is harder to model quarter by quarter because of the huge seasonality and the issues surrounding regulation and insurance, neither of which apply to ETON. So on a quarterly basis, ETON is easy. But both are very simple over a period of years. If you are a value investor, something will click about what I just said. Buffett always said value investing is simple, but it isn't easy. And that it doesn't take a lot of IQ - anything over 120 is a waste is what he said, not sure I agree - but the real trick is the right mindset. Someone losing their mind over this short term price movement and letting fanciful stories impact their decisions when the long term trends are as plain as day, that person may have the required 120+ IQ, but clearly lacks the right mindset. Buffett always said, too, that you can't teach that mindset. It either makes sense to you or it doesn't. I include this commentary here for those who have that mindset, but who are second guessing themselves right now. If that's you, ignore the fearful short termers who let the market tell them what to think, think for yourself instead, and act according to your views. For the rest, I wish you well, good luck!

@evfcfaddict So far, their promised EBITDA growth of double digit CAGR from 2023-2027 hasn’t materialized. So, they must forecast significant growth ahead? It also seems like they pulled the slide with 2027 EBITDA estimates from their most recent investor presentation.

Intred $ITD.MI presentation at a German investment conference yesterday. The valuation remains a mystery to me. cms-admin.intred.it/uploads/Mid_an…

Poker & Investing Having spent an inordinate amount of time in both realms, I feel qualified to comment on the lessons I’ve learned in poker that are massively helpful in investing. Would really appreciate a retweet, especially if you have poker players following you. Huge thanks to my poker pro friend Jacob Miller for reviewing this. (1/n)

@gaborgurbacs Wait werent you the guy celebrating Victor Orban sabotaging every EU move against the Russians while leading his own people to be one of the poorest on a per capita basis in the EU, right? How come you celebrate this?

In Hungary a party that didn’t exist in the previous election cycle won the elections with a 2/3+ super-majority. Hungarians were tired of corruption, resultless regime celebration and champagne socialism. A new party with real focus and leadership could do the same in the U.S.

@FluentInQuality 7832.T?

I think I found a similar business like $GAW $GMWKF in a different continent. It's looking very, very good. Massive cult-following and sentimental value to consumers.

@bp22 My amateur view: US and Israel haven’t accomplished anything by killing current leadership. Iran is a theocracy with thousands of the same mullahs, who have learned, they can impose fees on ships in the Strait. If true, it’ll be felt most by Asian countries through energy ⬆️

My layman's understanding is that Iran leadership is battered but has a very significant leverage point with the Strait of Hornuz. They seem loathed to give it up without significant concessions. Thoughts? #IranWar‌

@MishGEA Didn’t mention Israel though

Well, France, Germany, Japan, Spain do not work for you either do they Marco Rubio? So stop making idiotic demands and acting like they do. The US started this "America First" stuff to this degree, Now it's blowing up. Allies tell Trump to go to hell with his war requests.

@puppyeh1 At this point the conflict of interest are so apparent that Abercrombie shouldn’t be able to vote any of his shares. They also shouldn’t contribute to voting thresholds. They should just be disregarded completely. In any case he‘s cooked 👨🏻‍🍳

🚨🚨$HUM.AX🚨🚨 Takeover Panel finds Unacceptable Circumstances announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2026031…

@gaborgurbacs No they weren’t. They are in russias pocket. That’s all.

EU urges Ukraine to allow access to pipeline carrying Russian oil. It’s almost like Hungarians were right again and saw this geopolitical scenario a while ago. ft.com/content/8f5f18…

@mikemcglone11 Saying other cryptos are copycats of BTC is like saying equity shares of other companies are dilutive to Apple shares. How do you get payed for „analysis“ this bad?

$64,000 Bitcoin Support Could Be a Speed Bump - If Bitcoin is a guide, 2024 may have marked the final stages of a risk-asset inflation cycle. Born of the financial crisis, the initial crypto sparked a historic speculative frenzy and infinite copycats that are unwinding. The graphic shows Bitcoin reverting to its mean and mode from the election year at about $64,000 -- a potential line in the sand. If $64,000 is breached, dominoes can tumble, with the stock market potentially next. Full report on the Bloomberg here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t… {BI COMD} #bitcoin #stockmarket @markets

@timevalueofbtc LOL if anything EU will get larger. Gold trades like USD is a shitcoin and no one wants to take on American debt anymore.

Gold has started to trade like the European Union is collapsing

@taobanker Don’t know, might be disrupted by AI and robots soon :)

I'm feeling like $adus might be a legit retirement opportunity this is a well managed company trading for like 15x earnings

@stockgeekTV @Poring_123 @TerenceF123 @taobanker $COUR is interesting! Thx for sharing. Started with a position in $ADBE last week.

@Poring_123 @TerenceF123 @taobanker All three have very cheap valuations, AI growth opportunities, and strong cash flow generation that flows into share buybacks $COUR also has big margin enhancement potential via its merger with $UDMY If & when sentiment turns on these, the upside could be significant for each

holy fuck there are some really awesome deals in the market, i didn't really notice while i was vibe coding ideas: $DUOL $PINS $ADBE $MNTN $PYPL $CSU $MORN $COUR $INMD $NLOP $VVX

@tjreidpoker Would assume he missclicked and shove it

500/1K/1K, 100 big blinds deep, early in a $10K tourney. Folds to you in SB, and you make it 4K with 77. BB, very strong pro, makes it 24K. What do you do?

@mgrahamwood Would appreciate it if you could ask AA to contrast tax rates on profits in Oman vs those in Europe and any details about production beyond 2026 would be appreciated. Looking forward to the interview and best wishes!

Oil price, Galp, Kistos, Pharos. malcysblog.com/2025/12/oil-pr…

@GeneInvesting What’s your largest position?

Okay I’m bored. Ask me a question ⬇️ about biotech, $NTLA, $PRME, $BEAM or $CRSP

@xflixx Oder du bist zu müde, zu betrunken, denkst zu kompliziert, oder oder…

Poker Notiz an mich selbst #204 Wenn für einer Entscheidung am Pokertisch irgendein anderer Grund als "Ich möchte hier den maximalen Erwartungswert generieren." in deinem Kopf auftaucht, dann spielst du - ganz einfach gesagt - zu hoch.

@yaKashif @PaulPortesi Fair enough, although our understanding of them changes. But I was referring more to our social life. Black swans and tail events a la NNT.

@RealWayneDaBang @PaulPortesi laws of physics don't change.

In the chess game of life the squares don't always stay squares. They can disappear. They can reappear. They can be holograms. The idea is in the chess game of life, there are no boards. No squares. Let the games begin.

@yaKashif @PaulPortesi It’s not really though. Ludic fallacy. In life the rules change all the time, in games rules are constant. Bounded uncertainty.

@PaulPortesi life is poker

@Joeingram1 He still just doubled his roll. If you bet your roll in a tournament, you can get many times it in a tournament :)

Tournament players will never know the joy of facing an 800bb river overbet against a texas manaic w/ your roll on the table