mike becker
2.8K posts
mike becker
@MikeBecker24
Owner of Camp Canine NYC/Retweets about PLTR, NBIS, ONDS, the Giants, Mets, The Cuse, or anything interesting!!! "Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"
New York, NY Katılım Mart 2009
4.7K Takip Edilen621 Takipçiler
What stock will you NEVER touch again, no matter how cheap it gets?
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$NBIS UPDATE: Is RETAIL SELLING into big 43% weekly stock rise? If so who is buying to keep the stock soaring?
Institutions? Algorithms triggered by the Goldman Sachs and BofA raises?
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@MB_Hogan If they hit 7-9 Billion in ARR this year, the stock will be $200-$300. No reason to do it now unless they see delays which would affect their forecast. $nbis
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$NBIS Question : should management take the opportunity of ATH stock in the $150’s to dilute via the $2B ATM?
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mike becker retweetledi
Baseball and Steve Perry is an elite combo 🤣
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@FiveYearFlat Agree 💯 Market finally realizing the full value here.
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@MikeBecker24 Calling it a basic neocloud is definitely underestimating the ecosystem. The sum of the parts here is starting to look much bigger than the current market cap.
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so…
the debate is over right?
$NBIS is the best neocloud out there?
is it still even a question or has Nebius officially won?
stellar mgmt, multiple equity stakes in diverse businesses, scooping up deal after deal…
i trimmed some at $105 to derisk and buy more $NVDA, letting the rest of my position ride although the CCs on this even for $200 are very attractive
it does feel overbought here (i would not buy at $150) but it is now in price discovery so anything goes
i still don’t love the biz model of the neoclouds with unlimited dilution + no profitability but $NBIS does seem to be differentiating themselves with ambitions to be a hyperscaler cloud vs just a neocloud
debate is done? are they the single best one out of the entire batch of neoclouds?
+8%
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@BMSInvests It’s really hard to question Eric’s team when you see the value they have created by these acquisitions. The most impressive part is the low multiples they are able to buy these companies for. This feels more like a private equity investment which I really like!
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I’ve been asked a fair bit for my opinion on the proposed increase of authorised shares from 800M to 1.2B, so here’s my honest, neutral take from someone who is essentially full port $ONDS:
• Of the current 800M authorised share count, 481.9M are outstanding, 196.3M are reserved for warrants and 56M are reserved for RSU’s - leaving 63.7M shares that are actually “free”.
• $ONDS wants to also add 20M shares to the 2021 Stock Incentive Plan (from 61M to 81M), so that would leave 43.7M shares available for issuance.
• 43.7M shares isn’t enough to execute their Strategic + Growth plan, as we’ve seen them use shares as equity for M&A - and management have been clear that this is the path they want to take.
• Now, the raise of authorised shares to 1.2B is a little 🤏 crazy. For context, at EOY 2024, total authorised shares were 300M, so approving this would be a 900M increase, or 4x, in 16 months.
• If you bought 1 share at the end of 2024, and all of the proposed 1.2B authorised shares are eventually issued, then you would be diluted down to just ~7.76% of your original ownership.
• For me, I knew what I was investing in. Capital doesn’t just appear for hyper growth companies like $ONDS, these increases are needed to fuel growth.
• Is dilution the end of the world? No. Eric has proved that past dilution has been accretive and shareholder value has increased substantially in the last 12 months. It’s not a cash grab.
• That being said, I do think that it will add more pressure and play right into the bear thesis of this being a dilution machine unfortunately.
• There will be massive consolidation in the years to come in the industry, and $ONDS wants to be one of the market leaders left standing. But when is enough, enough?
• I don’t believe there’s an integration risk right now, but just how much are they going to acquire? How much do they really need to be “successful” in their eyes? Will we have to approve to 1.6B next year? 2B the year after?
• $ONDS market cap target is $15-20B, how much of that will be stock price growth? Or will most of it just be by adding more shares? Even if it ends up being a great idea AND they execute, it adds a lot of uncertainty.
• Again, neutrally, just because the ceiling is being raised, it doesn’t mean they’ll be issued. It’s for flexibility and equity when and if they need it.
• Some of the comments I’ve seen aimed at Eric are ridiculous. He has earned the benefit of the doubt and more with what he’s done for $ONDS and shareholders.
• Overall, I still trust management and $ONDS, but this will delay growth or add pressure on the stock price in the short-mid term IMO.
I don’t claim to be an expert, so I’d be interested to hear your thoughts.
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@itschrisray @ul_TrYBest10 Yet retail investors are crying about dillution.
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@ul_TrYBest10 Dude, $ONDS bought INDO Earth for $60M (a mix of cash and shares).
Today, INDO Earth just received $68M.
That’s called an accretive acquisition.
Shareholders are ALREADY getting more value out of this acquisition than what the dilution could have eroded.
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$ONDS The bear case is actually based on the logic your most trusted management has given you themselves: they will keep using share dilution to fund acquisitions, and shareholders’ ownership will keep getting diluted. No matter how large the orders are, the gains will still be diluted away. As long as they do not stop diluting, the stock price will never go up.
Chris Ray@itschrisray
Months ago, bears said $ONDS needed orders, so they won a bunch of $1M to $20M orders… Then the bears said no no, they need bigger orders than that. … so $ONDS received orders for $50M two weeks ago and $68M today. I’m sure this still isn’t enough for them. 🤣 $118M in revenue so far this year from just these two orders… catching up to that $375M FY 2026 guide pretty quickly. 👀
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mike becker retweetledi
Goldman Sachs raised its Price Target on $NBIS from $160 to $205 and keeps a Buy rating.
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@EndicottInvests Not sure anyone realized how quick they would be scaling, with this precision.
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Another reason I love $NBIS is the international footprint.
16 sites across 7 Countries is the guide this year.
I bet we see an Asia DC in 2027 as well
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mike becker retweetledi
Major cheat code for life: Learn to delay your reaction. Anger, fear, and impulse will try to make you move fast. There's power in pausing. In the pause, you see clearly, you respond wisely, and you avoid decisions you’ll regret. Slow down to speed up.
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mike becker retweetledi
mike becker retweetledi
$ONDS - Just clearing things up after a quick chat with @CeoOndas
Yes, the amount of REGISTERED shares has been increased. But remember this is not an ACTIVE shelf.
Eric himself said: “I get one shareholders meeting a year, We always need a proper number of shares available. This is good corporate financial policy”
What he’s basically telling you is:
👉 “This isn’t about dilution right now, it’s about flexibility and standard corporate practice.”
$ONDS is just increasing their ceiling, so they can act IF necessary, throughout the year!
No reason to panic over this at all
Know what you hold
BMSInvests@BMSInvests
📄 $ONDS just filed their 2026 Annual Meeting Proxy Quick Breakdown: Annual shareholder meeting set for May 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET in West Palm Beach, FL. Key items up for vote: ✅ Elect 4 directors (including Chairman & CEO Eric Brock) ✅ Ratify BDO USA as auditors ✅ Advisory “Say-on-Pay” on executive compensation ✅ Increase authorized common shares from 800M to 1.2 billion – gives flexibility for growth, capital raises, acquisitions & incentives ✅ Add 20M shares to the 2021 Stock Incentive Plan (to attract/retain talent post-acquisitions) Board recommends voting FOR all proposals. Full proxy here: ir.ondas.com/sec-filings-em…
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@ive_m5 @Printer_Copier Great write up. Hope you are on to something here!!$$
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I’ve had a lot of people ask about $HUBC
Here is a 4 page write up that outlines my POV on the “bottom girl”.
drive.google.com/file/d/1q9sOy3…
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@cmsinvests Rocket lab is a great company , I just don’t follow it that closely.
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@MikeBecker24 it’s already ran a lot but so has aaoi. rklb looks like best value for me rn
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I’m looking to add one more HIGH conviction GROWTH play to my portfolio.
Deciding between $AAOI, $RKLB, and $NBIS
What stock would you pick out of the three?
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@cmsinvests I believe if they hit their 7-9Billion guidance this year, you are looking at a $250 stock. They confirmed on their last earnings call the revenue is on track. Longer term, I expect them to become a hyperscaller.
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@YoYInvestor Do investors not see how much value they have created? They could be at 1 Billion in revenue next year.
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$ONDS I can’t believe I have to explain such simple concepts on here, but here I am. This individual’s math is correct, but the story they’re telling is incomplete. This is just a lack of sophistication.
“Loyal 2020 holders have endured 23x share dilution.”
Accurate. What’s missing from this observation is what those shares actually purchased. The 2020 Ondas was a pre-revenue wireless network company with no defense contracts, no autonomous systems, and no clear path to institutional relevance.
You weren’t diluted out of a great company, you were diluted through the transformation into one.
The share count grew 23x. In return, shareholders received assets worth orders of magnitude more. Present the full picture or don’t present it at all.
“Equity ownership is down 95.9% since 2020.”
Mathematically correct, analytically incomplete. Percentage ownership is only meaningful when the underlying asset value stays the same. It didn’t. You own 4.1% of something worth way more than 100% of what existed in 2020. Measuring the size of your slice while ignoring the growth of the pizza isn’t analysis. It’s cherry picking.
“Higher market cap kills stock momentum.”
The numbers don’t support this. Here’s what actually happened.
2024: ~70M shares at $2 = ~$140M MC
Today: ~481M shares at $9.50 = ~$4.5B MC
Shares grew 6.8x, but MC grew 32x.
Price went up 4.75x despite the dilution. Market cap expands through both price appreciation and share count growth. These are not opposing forces. A larger company built through accretive acquisitions commands a higher price per share.
The warrant structure makes institutional conviction clear. 196M warrants at $20 and $28 strike prices represent a $1B investor’s judgment that this stock reaches levels 120% to 210% above today.
“Future outsized returns become less and less likely.”
Only when dilution outpaces growth. In 2025 it didn’t. Revenue grew 7x while shares grew 4.7x. Revenue per share expanded. If 2026 guidance of $375M is achieved against roughly 500M shares, revenue per share hits $0.75 vs. $0.15 in 2024. That’s not erosion. That’s expansion.
“Negative compounding of ownership — shares growing on shares.”
Negative compounding is genuinely destructive under the right conditions. Those conditions require the underlying asset pool to remain the same while ownership units multiply. That’s the model where compounding works in reverse, but that’s not what happened here.
Every share issuance deposited a new operating business into the asset pool. Yes, your proportional claim contracted. But the pool itself grew substantially each time. The question isn’t whether your percentage shrank. The question is whether the absolute value of your position increased.
2024: $7.2M revenue / 70M shares = $0.10 per share
2025: $50.7M revenue / 329M shares = $0.15 per share
2026 guide: $375M / ~500M shares = $0.75 per share
That’s not negative compounding. That’s the opposite.
“Claiming dilution is accretive is moronic.”
Dilution is accretive when the value of assets acquired exceeds the value of shares issued. That’s not a controversial position, it’s a fact.
It would be great if people who don’t understand this business would get off their soap box and do more research.
Weary Centurion@weary_centurion
$ONDS DILUTION EXPLAINED 🚩 Further to the below post which claims: “Are you really being “diluted” as an investor if you own less of the company than you used to, but each share is now worth more way more?” Here is how much investors have been diluted since IPO: SHARE COUNT (year end) 2020 - 20M 2021 - 34M 2022 - 42M 2023 - 53M 2024 - 70M 2025 - 329M 2026 - 481M (so far) Loyal investors who have held since 2020 have endured a 2,300 increase in shares or an increase of 23x 14x since 2022 9x since 2023 6.8x since 2024 1.4x since 2025 (so far) If they fill all authorised shares to 1.2B that will be 6000% dilution since IPO or 60x more shares EQUITY EROSION Example: An investor in 2020 bought shares representing 100% of their equity ownership at the time Here is how much of that 100% equity they retain as time goes on: 2021 - 58.8% 2022 - 47.6% 2023 - 37.7% 2024 - 28.4% 2025 - 6.1% 2026 - 4.1% Full capacity shares - 1.7% Currently, loyal shareholders holding since 2020 have had their equity ownership trashed by 95.9% Yes the share price might be marginally higher than IPO (for now) But for every extra share, that means: - Higher market cap - Kills more stock momentum - Valuation increases by stealth - More growth required to offset Even if the growth does offset the dilution, this does not change the trajectory of your returns It is like compound interest in reverse Instead of money growing on money Shares are growing on shares The official term is “Negative Compounding of Ownership” In simple terms, in a normal savings account, your balance grows by a percentage each year In a dilutive stock, the total share pool grows by a percentage, which exponentially shrinks the "weight" of each original share It’s not just that they are adding shares, they are adding shares on top of a dramatically overinflated share count In 2021 a 70% increase added 14M shares But in 2025, a 70% increase added 259M shares This is why when people claim “last time they doubled the share count the stock doubled”, it does not mean the same will happen again Each new round of dilution compounds erosion of share ownership overtime, making future outsized returns less and less likely THE PIZZA IS GROWING BUT YOUR SLICE IS SHREDDING Because the share count has grown 24x since IPO, the company’s total value had to grow 24x just for your single IPO share to remain worth exactly $6.00 This is not sustainable for future returns So whilst it may be true that the companies growth outpaces dilution in the near term, this becomes more and more difficult over time The same is true for the likes of $IREN who just announced a $6B fresh ATM I see the same justification on every stock like this. It’s always the same People experience a rapid increase in share price over a short period of time and expect it to continue indefinitely The reason I keep highlighting these stocks is because most people don’t even properly understand what dilution is Some of the most popular accounts on here are posting false info continuously Claiming dilution is somehow “accretive” is just one example I hope I have explained why that statement is so moronic I am not telling anyone what to do, just raising concerns and posting information (for free). I earn no money from X and have no position in $ONDS Not financial advice
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