Mike Stringer
208 posts
#ARS judging by volume, looks like deal sign off getting close....
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@Trisseswe We're now in month 6. Not far away from the long stop date. Do you get the feeling somethings gone wrong?
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#ARS
I expect this to conclude way before the LSD. My consistent black swan might have already passed. Beutong grows more and more relevant each day in this market.
Update on Proposed Sale of Indokal (KSK Project) | Company Announcement | Investegate investegate.co.uk/announcement/r…
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@leighwright45 @JB_MiningAfrica @MarulaPlc Anyone who supports an EGM is a moron of epic proportions.
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@BigBiteNow I wish you luck I'm not brave enough. I just can't trust the management to NOT issue more discounted confetti which I think will happen next year to fund saudi or some other pie in the sky exploration project.
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I undertook a review of Montage Gold Corp yesterday to compare how #KEFI's journey may fare post financial close.
They have also employed Lycopodium, and the project is in the 7th quarter of its build and remains on time and on budget.
In March 2025, 3 months post-FID, Montage reported the first tangible construction progress. These were earthworks and concrete foundations prep progress.
That is when their share price started to take off.
The company valuation at that time was c. $700m
12 months later, it is now running at c. 6x that value. So not far off your thoughts.
It is worth noting that Kefi's build programme is shorter. c. 23 months vs. 29 months.
There are other factors in play, such as the gold price, so it isn't an exact science. But the indication is that a clear on-budget, on-time run should deliver at least 5x over the next 12 months, and the action should commence once tangible construction progress is demonstrated.
I have a nice holding already, but have been happily snapping more up today on the pullback.
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With today's #KEFI vote now successful, the financing is finally complete, and the share register has added "a number of shareholders who are themselves multi-billion-dollar financial institutions."
I look forward to seeing the names if their holding size indeed warrants it.
It may well take a few months of construction to get things going, but assuming Lycopodium delivers as they have for the likes of Montage Gold Corp, then a huge re-rate should come through over the next 12 months or so.
Looking forward to it.
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@Trisseswe Ooops, the pound weakens against the dollar the sale value is now £77m and will likely drop further. Better revise down the returns.
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@MikeString24639 Tax situation differs on where you tax. Prob ways to plan that better.
If it’s 3p gross and you pay 30 % and get 2.1p. And all before eoy, sound like very good deal to me. Buy now 1.45 or so. Get 2p within 8 months.
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@derrick_dao @JB_MiningAfrica @Share_Talk @MarulaPlc The only thing Marula will mine is shareholders pockets, it's a slow motion train wreck.
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South Africa holds ~80% of global manganese reserves — making assets like #MARU strategically important as LMFP battery chemistry scales. The bottleneck isn't ore volume, it's upgrading from metallurgical-grade to battery-grade HPMSM. Projects proving multi-operation scale on the ground are exactly what downstream supply chains need to de-risk.
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Thanks @Share_Talk
Great to see the progress first hand here in Kenya and also what is being progressed in South Africa.
Some stockpile there in South Africa.
@MarulaPlc #MARU #Manganese
Share_Talk ™@Share_Talk
@MarulaPlc Great to see the progress being made following #MARU's recent RNS announcements in February 2026 regarding our proposed manganese expansion through multiple operations and resource acquisitions in South Africa. @JB_MiningAfrica
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@Trisseswe If it's a special dividend the sp will drop by that amount. So if they pay say 30% the sp will drop by 30%. So after the 30% is paid you'll get back the exact same amount minus dividend tax. It's a raw deal.
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@MikeString24639 Let’s say 10 % in fees. Let’s say they need 10-15m to progress Beutong for a sale / next step. That leaves $80m. I would be very happy with that. No point in spending more on B if they didn’t see a reason for it either. When all done and dusted I’m hoping for around 3p.
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@BigBiteNow @dmarklangford This will be a very slow burn until the mine is built in two years. Won't see 2p anytime soon.
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There is some really interesting detail in this latest #KEFI presentation, including a build programme.
The NPV numbers, even after adjusting for a potential 25% uplift in diesel prices, offer really substantial returns (hence why I have stayed put through the financing shenanigans).
This was helped by the fact that the increased dilution now means Kefi retains 86% of the project (previously 83%). That's why I wanted more dilution when they raised in December rather than these expensive gold royalties.
For me, one of the most telling slide is the one showing lead contractor Lycopodium's track record in Africa and who they have built for. With the finances finally sorted, this is what it now comes down to.
Get it built on time and on budget, and those shareholder riches can be realised.
kefi-goldandcopper.com/files/presenta…
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As suspected, MINTEX has delivered an update on #KEFI's project launch, including some pretty specific timelines.
"One week to optimise the equity capital structure and then one week to finalise any remaining detailed definitive documentation required for finance closing and launch."
"Full Project development is planned to commence by year-end 2025."
Even at 70% project ownership, the current valuation upon construction start does not make sense. But there is a good chance they come in higher than that.
We will find out soon enough.
londonstockexchange.com/news-article/K…
BBN@BigBiteNow
Also taken a chunk of #KEFI these last few days. From where I am sitting, the final $60m equity tranche looks about as certain as it can be. 3 separate interested parties, all capable of delivering it on their own. Gold prices are very supportive of such financing being closed. One broker is calling for 3.3p a share when construction starts, which should be shortly after financial close, which itself is due by the end of this month. “The project is expected to generate average EBITDA of US$493 million per year,” continues Orior, “in the first three years of operations.” My take is that KEFI retain 70% ownership post equity finance (latest projection is 70-85%). That means +$1bn in net EBITDA in the first 3 years of operation against a current valuation of just $185m. That's super attractive, so I am on the pullback.
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@baroninvestment Lots of time here 2 years to production, if they get there.
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KEFI GOLD AND COPPER (KEFI) at £132MILLION is very cheap here.
Will they deliver?
Allocated a smaller sum should they achieve it (and if they do I will of course wish I had 5x the figure)
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@Trisseswe So if they were to sell Beutong with KSK then they could then return all the money to shareholders.
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@JB_MiningAfrica @MarulaPlc So the very late accounts aren't close to being completed with the 2025 accounts soon to be published.
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Ms Ndeto will work with Marula’s finance team in the UK, South Africa and East Africa, to concurrently finalise the publication of 2024 and 2025 Annual Reports.
Having already worked with her, I have seen her turnaround complex audits and accounts seamlessly.
@MarulaPlc #MARU
Jason Brewer@JB_MiningAfrica
Pleased to welcome Ms Ndeto as Marula Group CFO. ✅ enhance financial management and governance ✅ oversee financial planning and reporting ✅ budgeting and capital allocation ✅ regulatory compliance and internal controls ✅ audits and financial strategy @MarulaPlc #MARU
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@Trisseswe Would've thought Beutong is too under developed to sell they haven't even done a feasibility study to my knowledge no permits either. Many years to wait.
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@MikeString24639 Before Beutong. Yes. If you value it as 0, sure. I really don’t. My 3p is 100 % up. And I can’t see all this taking too much time.
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@Trisseswe Yes I believe most will be paid to shareholders but how much? Manini is dodging the question. For the record I haven't bought any as yet, but could be worth a punt for a quick 40% return by summer.
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@MikeString24639 Then you should sell/not buy. Mcap is what, $65m. Most of the cash to shareholders and leave some to work with + fees.
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@that_stocks_guy A big shafting for investors coming Manini will trouser the $105m for himself. Lifestyle company this.
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