Derrick Dao

612 posts

Derrick Dao

Derrick Dao

@derrick_dao

CEO @ Nuclear Vision Limited (CSE: $NUKV) Developing the largest manganese deposit in Slovakia for the EU battery supply chain

Katılım Nisan 2020
546 Takip Edilen241 Takipçiler
Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
Price running well ahead of FY1 EPS like this last happened into the 1999 mania and then in early 2021, and both cycles ended with the multiple re-rating lower rather than earnings catching up. The clean read from that chart is capital has already priced the AI narrative and will increasingly discriminate toward businesses with real tonnes of copper, lithium, or uranium on the balance sheet rather than forward token revenue.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
The Macron-Starmer Hormuz summit is the tell — two G7 heads flying in to coordinate a waterway that carries roughly 20% of global oil and the bulk of Qatari LNG means Europe now prices energy security as a national security line item. Any ceasefire bid on Iran compresses the crude risk premium short term but cements the medium-term Western push on domestic uranium, copper, and refined rare earths as the only hedges against the next chokepoint event.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
Interoperable digital bills of lading would shave a conservatively estimated 20 to 30 billion a year in trade friction and materially tighten provenance on critical minerals moving through Singapore, Rotterdam, and Shanghai. That provenance layer is the missing rail for downstream content rules on battery metals and rare earths, and it is why the EU CRMA and US 45X credits cannot actually audit supply chains today.
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Blake Herzinger
Blake Herzinger@BDHerzinger·
A move to mutual recognition or, better, a globally interoperable standard for digital bills of lading would achieve incredible efficiencies in trade, in addition to eliminating a vector for fraud that costs the global economy billions a year. Trade is cool again, btw. x.com/typesfast/stat…
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
The semi boom is functionally a bet on 100+ new gigafactories, hyperscaler capex, and sovereign silicon programs that all require copper, gallium, germanium, and heavy rare earths at scale. Software margins compress when the AI capex cycle outruns token pricing, while the picks-and-shovels thesis keeps migrating upstream to the metals that physically enable the transistors.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
Paulson's framing matters because the ex-Treasury acknowledgment validates what the debt service curve has been screaming since 2022 — interest costs now exceed defense spending and are on track to overtake Medicare by 2027. That math forces financial repression, which historically drives real rates negative and pulls physical metals plus producing mining equities into the only portfolio hedge that actually works.
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James Turk
James Turk@FGMR·
Don’t ignore this warning from former Treasury Secretary #HenryPaulson. If the gov’t should be preparing, so should you. Here’s my analysis of the US govt’s financial position & the inescapable math of #overindebted gov’ts. Own physical #gold #silver to help prepare.
James Turk tweet media
James Turk@FGMR

This chart reveals how the #US #government managed to increase the national debt by 43X from $908 billion in 1980 to $39 trillion (and growing) with only an18X increase in the amount of interest paid by it annually on the debt. That trick ended in 2020 when interest rates could not be manipulated any lower by the #FederalReserve & started rising. An overindebted US gov’t is now hurdling toward the #TippingPoint, historically the mathematical trigger to #monetary chaos & gov’t #insolvency when interest expense is more than 30% of revenue, as explained here: fgmr.com/get-ready-for-…

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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
Diversifying imports is the polite framing — the harder read is Beijing has decided Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab are uninvestable at current geopolitics. Reserve builds plus pipeline diversification show up directly as long-term offtake agreements in Central Asia and African copper, cobalt, lithium and uranium, which is exactly where Western juniors compete for the same molecules.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
Each of those lost decades started with CAPE above 25 and real yields near or below 1%, which is almost identical to today's CAPE 42, real yield 1.8% setup. The historical playbook from those windows is allocating away from paper toward hard assets — gold at 1970s levels of 10-15% portfolio weight and real producers of energy and metals doing the heavy lifting on real return.
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Steve Burns
Steve Burns@SJosephBurns·
Here are the lost decades for 60/40 portfolios: (60% stocks, 40% bonds)
Steve Burns tweet media
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
Norway pocketing a 68% earnings bump while EU buyers pay the tail risk is the clearest tell that Brent is no longer a commodity price but a geopolitical rent. Every incremental dollar flowing to NBIM gets recycled into equity — including mining and energy equities — which quietly re-rates the same juniors Europe needs for its own critical minerals independence.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
Europe shuttered roughly 3.8MMBPD of refining capacity since 2008 while banking on imports that now arrive via Cape of Good Hope detours costing an extra 14 days of floating inventory. The same demand-first logic is gutting European copper smelting and rare earth separation, which means the next energy shock hits a continent with neither refined hydrocarbons nor refined metals on the shelf.
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
Several European governments are now learning — the hard way — why letting most of their national oil refining capacity to close was, how to put it, a bit of a mistake. (Another example of why shapping demand first, rather than supply, is important for the energy transition)
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
A move to $115 on Bab al-Mandab stress implies the West loses another 2.1MMBPD of heavy-sour seaborne alongside whatever Iranian barrels stay sanctioned. The mechanical consequence is refining spreads widening further and uranium + copper term contracts repricing off a sustained crude shock, not a spike.
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constantin savin
constantin savin@savinfamily·
I’ve just entered LONG on #Oil contract for May 2026, with $115 target, given the news that #Iran will begin blocking the Bab al-Mandab strait starting tomorrow at noon. It’s my 5th speculative trade on #Oil since #IranWar started. Very comfortable to date with the money made.
constantin savin tweet media
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
Türkiye as an EU critical minerals corridor is the underpriced piece of this story — Eti Maden's boron monopoly and rare earth deposits near Eskişehir give Ankara real leverage that Brussels needs in a post-China supply chain. Look for the Ballıkayalar and Kızılcaören rare earth projects to feature in any 2026-2027 off-take announcements.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
Rail and grid infrastructure absorbing the shortfall in consumer and export demand reads directly as Beijing leaning harder into the domestic electrification cycle. That means sustained fixed-asset demand for copper, lithium, and rare earths even as the headline trade surplus shrinks — a bullish mix for upstream miners.
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Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis·
1/3 NYT: "Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year." This is exactly it. nytimes.com/2026/04/15/bus…
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
@TheEconomist $6trn of Gulf SWF capital cannot stay parked in Treasuries and US mega-caps if the war premium becomes structural. PIF and Mubadala have already been rotating into upstream critical minerals and battery supply chain deals — that pace accelerates from here.
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The Economist
The Economist@TheEconomist·
The longer the war drags on—and the deeper the scars it leaves—the harder it will be for Gulf states’ sovereign-wealth funds to pretend that nothing has changed economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
521MM barrels is the line where onshore draws force refiners into term contracts at spot-plus pricing. Freight and insurance premiums compound the loss — marginal cargo runs 15-20% above headline crude. Feeds directly into input cost inflation for lithium refining and rare earth separation.
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Amena Bakr
Amena Bakr@Amena__Bakr·
Update from @Kpler: Cumulative crude and condensate supply losses in the Middle East have reached 521 million barrels. The continued rise in barrels lost is increasingly leaving its mark on global onshore inventories.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
Record Q1 gold ETF inflows into a pullback is structural retail capitulation into hard-asset demand, not a trading blip. Same flow profile is showing up in physical silver channels and select battery metals ETFs onshore — Chinese households treating strategic commodities as the real safe haven this cycle.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
@dlacalle_IA Asymmetric dependency cuts the other way for critical imports too — Iran's lithium and copper concentrate flows are routed through the same chokepoint on the inbound leg. A Hormuz stress event redraws the China-Asia metals supply map almost as fast as it does the oil one.
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Daniel Lacalle
Daniel Lacalle@dlacalle_IA·
Hormuz. From Iran's "ace" to is its biggest weakness: Iran is completely dependent on Hormuz. 90% of its oil exports –80% of all exports– transit the strait, almost 25% of Iran’s GDP, 60% of government revenue. The closure means hundreds of millions of dollars lost per day.
Daniel Lacalle tweet media
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
@M_C_Klein Look-through on Hormuz works for crude pass-through, but sticky core services is the real signal. Ex-housing above 4% keeps the Fed from cutting even if oil retreats. Rate path is the binding constraint on sponsor cost for upstream critical minerals capex.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
@Sino_Market Tech Index cutting deeper than broader HSI reads as foreign allocators trimming mega-cap exposure into weekend headline risk. Battery metals and rare earth sub-sectors have been the one consistent bid under risk-off China sessions this quarter.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
The 26.4% renewables share still leaves 73% on thermal and oil, and that thermal share is where the Iran crude losses hit hardest. India's 5MMBPD import basket has no real substitution path off Middle East heavy-sour inside the next two quarters. Renewables are the headline, but the crisis trade is in the residual fossil dependence the chart does not show.
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Trinh
Trinh@Trinhnomics·
India electricity generation from renewable sources are rising to now 26.4% of total, so that's an offsetting factor for the crisis.
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Derrick Dao
Derrick Dao@derrick_dao·
A 0.98% rutile grade at that tonnage scale is what kills the China titanium dioxide feedstock monopoly, not incremental pigment capacity adds. Rio Tinto and Iluka have been offtake-hungry for two years while Chemours and Venator ran down inventories. The DFS prints the capex number, but the strategic premium on non-China titanium feedstock is where the reprice sits.
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Robin Mayes
Robin Mayes@Robin25461631·
#svml $svm ⁦@sovereignmetals⁩ “DFS a starting gun, the queue is already forming” Tier 1, multi generational asset, will dominate supply in two critical minerals , rare earths ‘kicker’, World Bank financing, US government want it, the Japanese want it, who will buy it?
Robin Mayes tweet media
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