@aroberts_andrew Terrific, I had my eye on this. I'm very much looking forward to this arriving in a few months.
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Milnerite
107 posts
Milnerite
@Milnerite
English, socially conservative and oddly curious about the career of Lord Alfred Milner (d.1925)
England, United Kingdom Katılım Ekim 2014
198 Takip Edilen18 Takipçiler
My new book, NAPOLEON & HIS MARSHALS, is published in October, but you can save 20% if you pre-order it between 13-17 May if you use the code: PREORDER20 Here's the link: uk.bookshop.org/p/books/napole… I hope you enjoy it
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@lfg_uk @lawrencenewport What is any of them's plan?
As much as I despise Starmer, this whole chibang is a case of opening Pandora's Box.
Streeting might be mildly better, but if he won would be in the same straitjacket as Keir.
Rayner/Milliband would be disastrous, Burnham has ambition without ideas!
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@Chris1966 @ClarkeMicah I suppose the irony now is that the gifting of the bell makes it incredibly unlikely there will ever be another HMS Trump.
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@ClarkeMicah HMS Trump served until 1971 When it was decommissioned and scrapped in Wales. The bell with the plaque etc was likely removed during decommissioning and stored either for reuse if another vessel named the same or stored to be a gift
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I am still keen to hear from anyone who can unravel the mystery of HMS Trump's bell. How and where was it found?
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@marchong_joanna Gosh, if only there was the option of putting £20,000 a year into a stocks and shares ISA and enjoying unlimited gains without being taxed...
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The government wants you to move your savings into investments.
Funny thing: they’ve cut the CGT allowance from £12,300 to £3,000 and the dividend allowance from £2,000 to £500.
So when you do shift, the Treasury keeps a much bigger slice than it would have a few years ago.
Politics UK@PolitlcsUK
🚨 NEW: The Government has launched a £50m "Savvy Squirrel" ad campaign to encourage more Brits to invest instead of saving
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@LuckyFYSA It's a regulatory thing, no avoiding those systems in Europe unfortunately, but they're very easily turned off.
Or, just buy a 2025 or earlier one which won't have those things.
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I was looking at the Ineos Grenadier Station Wagon but unfortunately it has adult training wheels. Here is the list of the ridiculous features neutered are craving:
Intelligent Speed Assist
Lane Departure Warning
Automatic Emergency Braking
Driver Drowsiness Detection.
Puke.
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@RobertJenrick If Reform can't even reform the Triple Lock what hope of reforming the country is there?
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@WomBat21204089 @CassiniJan1919 @ClarkeMicah Aye, point is though is people make all these 'what if' excuses for potential outcomes without considering how much worse many existing problems are made by ridiculous US policy.
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@Milnerite @CassiniJan1919 @ClarkeMicah There are too many moving parts to predict outcomes. It has become non-linear.
Similar to 17th Century Poland claiming the Swedish throne, starting a needless war in the north then having 1/3 of its' population killed or abducted by Tatars in the south
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I don't think so, .@cassinijan1919 Read President Trump's original statement of intent, especially thew bit calling on the Iranian people to rise up. Mad rubbish. He had no idea what he was doing, as was clear. Still doesn't. It's too *late* to pretend this was a thoughtful action.
Jan Cassini@CassiniJan1919
@ClarkeMicah Too early to tell, Peter
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@CassiniJan1919 @ClarkeMicah Sometimes the treatment is worse than the ailment...
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@ClarkeMicah Maybe. But what if the Iranian regime falls in the few years? What if China is reconsidering its plans re Taiwan? What if Europe is forced to take its own defence seriously and begins to divert real resources to it? What if the UK turns its own oil and gas back on? Let’s see
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@NigelForrester9 I don't think Gulf states will have to make deals with Iran, but with China, which will be able to easily become the guarantor of peace in the Gulf. This would be less politically awkward for them but won't come cheap. Saudis may avert this course thanks to the Red Sea pipeline.
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Ending the war without reopening the Strait is utterly insane. It would destroy decades of American (and Israeli) foreign policy in one fell swoop since the Gulf would ultimately, however grudgingly, be forced to come to some kind of accommodation with Iran, since they clearly cannot force Iran to back down militarily. Even if no accommodation is reached, the Iranian regime will be able to skim money off the global oil and gas trade indefinitely. America and Israel would (correctly) be viewed as the main agents of chaos in the region, making the justification for the current direction of Gulf foreign policy impossible to justify.
The main question is what Iran’s demands would be in exchange for reopening the Strait. Quite plausibly, they will want to close American bases in the region — though this will be hard for the Gulf to accept, as this would render them virtually defenceless. (Could some kind of ‘close-and-replace’ agreement be reached with another country taking America’s place as a compromise?) Or maybe they will seek to weaken the petrodollar system, perhaps by allowing sales in yuan, in order to render US sanctions largely ineffective? Or maybe they will have some more ideological demands, for instance regarding breaking diplomatic ties with Israel?
All of these will be very hard for the Gulf to swallow. But surely it is even harder for the Gulf to swallow the compete destruction of their economies thanks to the utter idiocy of their supposed ‘partners’. And even if they refuse to swallow these demands, Iran still wins and the world, especially the Gulf, loses…
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@KobeissiLetter Given Gulf Oil is largely going east, this would be an incredible diplomatic bargaining chip for Iran ally China. Suddenly, if the Gulf countries buddy up to China, they'll get the additional boon of getting their oil through the strait again. The US is done in the Middle East.
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BREAKING: President Trump is willing to end the Iran War even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, per WSJ.
Details include:
1. Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to reopen Hormuz would push the conflict beyond his timeline 4-6 weeks
2. Trump believes the US should achieve its main goals of destroying Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles
3. Trump thinks he can wind down current hostilities while pressuring Iran diplomatically to resume the "free flow of trade"
4. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the Strait, US officials say
US stock market futures are rising on the news.
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@RobertJenrick Rather a populist suggestion no? Fuel prices in Britain haven't yet increased enough to justify dramatic intervention. Slashing fuel duty would only reverse any natural fuel saving that has happened and set people to gallivanting around and only increasing demand. You know this.
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Now Australia too has halved tax on fuel.
As petrol and diesel surge, Reeves does nothing.
Elect a bunch of people who barely drive and this is what you get.
This can’t hold.
Daily Mail@DailyMail
Reform calls for emergency HALVING of VAT on fuel for three months as Brits get battered by 'Trumpflation' at the pumps trib.al/pnE175f
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@OldSovPub I'd say Seven Pillars of Wisdom but the early editions themselves are so plentiful and beautifully produced that perhaps it isn't needed
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@MRJKilcoyne Given how easily Starmer bent over re: Chagos islands you can't blame them for having a crack.
Though given that the island remains divided and Britain maintains a peacekeeping operation I would say this is extremely ungratious of the Cypriots. But yes, sovereign land, bog off.
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@JackHadders @AcademicAgent_X The Tories have already lost the ground game that they relied on for so long.
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I don’t agree. Reform are still not ready for a general election today, but they will be soon. In experience terms, these people have been running parties since the UKIP days, and this current infrastructure is 7 years old. Yes the established parties have better infrastructure, but you don’t need to be better at this moment in time, just to be good enough to wipe them out politically.
Reform will keep going strength to strength, mark my words
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And for the avoidance of doubt @JackHadders , the key reason taking over the Tories is even a plan at all is because realistically neither Reform nor Restore will be able to replace 200 years of infrastructure and ground game. Eventually someone will need to “seize the means”.
Academic Agent@AcademicAgent_X
I mean it was a long shot, it almost happened: still might. For me, the doomsday scenario (Reform-Tory merger) has always been the most likely one mathematically. I was coming up with ways to wreck it. All this is completely open information I discussed with Harrison Pitt on The Forge.
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@MRJKilcoyne Brilliant, thanks.
Some other thoughts. It'd be good to have a ranking so you know how far down in the list you are as you go. And perhaps a stretch, but some sort of lifestyle scoring would be interesting, so you could compare tradeoffs.
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How much is your salary worth and what does it feel like in other cities?
Let me know what you'd change or add, or make your own. Have a play.
salaryworth.netlify.app
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@Fibonacci_TA Yeah, I think Lewis and, maybe LeClerc, have given up on it too.
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@Milnerite That’s the reasons Max isn’t in it anymore as well right? Over dramatisation.
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@Fibonacci_TA This one sensei: x.com/i/status/20302…
Fibby.@Fibonacci_TA
$ASTS (Max Pain $96 | Price $89) — Mar 13 expiry Trading $7 under max pain with a heavily call-skewed structure and an accelerating ladder from $130 to $180. Hedging flows pull toward $96 but the gap needs momentum to close. What this means in plain English: Options dealers positioned for ASTS around $96. Price is sitting $7 below that, which means dealers aren't under pressure yet. But if price grinds up toward $96 and breaks through, a massive wall of call options kicks in above $130. At that point dealers are forced to start buying shares to hedge, and the ladder structure means that buying feeds on itself all the way to $180. 🎯 Verdict: Squeeze candidate with a $7 gap to close first. The structure rewards any sustained push toward $96, but the real fireworks live above $130 where the call ladder accelerates hard. Satellite launch news or contract announcements are the spark, without a catalyst this stays a slow grind.
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@Fibonacci_TA Ahah, thanks. I clearly misunderstood your earlier post about call options.
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