RS

@blocktrainer @RomanReher @YouTube @Fidelity Wär cool, wenn du nochmal kurz auf den letzten Stream eingehen könntest, z.B. darauf, dass KI Bitcoin überflüssig machen könnte, denn das hat denke ich für etwas Unsicherheit gesorgt.

Heute Abend um 21:00 Uhr ist @RomanReher live auf @YouTube für einen Bitcoin-Stream! 🔥🎥 Themen werden dabei u. a. sein, dass sich $BTC laut @Fidelity in der Akkumulationsphase befindet, während New Hampshire eine BTC-Kommunalanleihe gestoppt hat. 👀 👉youtube.com/watch?v=8wUta9…

@blocktrainer @RomanReher @YouTube Ich gucke seit Anfang 2021 Romans Streams und bin von den Aussagen, dass KI Bitcoin überflüssig machen kann, auch durchaus kalt erwischt worden, zudem finde ich einen solchen Thumbnail für Anfänger auch echt schwierig.

Heute spontaner Nachmittags-Stream. 🙌 Um 16:00 Uhr teilt @RomanReher seine Gedanken zur Zukunft von Bitcoin. Viele Narrative der Vergangenheit wurden begraben, aber neue Wege eröffnen sich! Mehr dazu später bei @YouTube. ➡️youtube.com/live/qfopQPdjJ…

@aleabitoreddit @shusinsei Hi Serenity, big fan here and I have to agree, u above that iren shittalk and dont have to do that, your work speeks for itself and we appreciate it.

@shusinsei I didn’t even give an opinion here. The fact that you think sharing news about the $1.1B stock based compensation is “trashing it”. Speaks for itself.

@aleabitoreddit thx four your work ❤

I've reached 900k followers, thank you everyone! Just some reflection, it's actually a nightmare at higher counts... Which is new to me, since I started at almost nothing earlier this year. 1. Threats of safety, which I don't enjoy. - Random new accounts sending personal threats - Mysterious foreign accounts, sending coercive messages the moment I mention a foreign ticker If I hold an opinion about a stock, I'd prefer not to have anyone show up on the street with a knife at night since it's safety risk at this point... Never felt like I'd have to take that into consideration for holding an opinion. 2. Egregious media narratives - Lot of outlets try to dismiss my ideas like $RPI or $SIVE as "meme stocks" or me as "meme trader" when I talk about supply chain chokepoints or fundamental catalysts to revenue due to AI. Without ever covering the core ideas or hyperscaler mapping I've done. I let success validate my ideas, but it's annoying when they can just pretend their claims like "___ will imminently crash as a fact" which ends up not happening. Or that "___" is just a retail meme stock without mentioning $JBL, Ayar, $GFS or others for CPO scale up or pluggables. I'm grateful to some outlets, like in Belgium for $XFAB coverage, but many others try and paint their own narrative rather than covering a very nuanced thesis objectively. - When I mention a ticker in a foreign market, some try to frame me as some "adversarial account"! I'm just sharing ideas, and I'll always disclose positions/financial interest if I have them. If I say I have none, they just make up some narrative that I'm some foreign institution or random group inside their country that does. Some have even tried hilariously forging screenshots of me to harm my reputation, which was annoying to deal with. Since it's easier to textedit a photo and spread it around than it is to dispel disinformation. Lot of institutions know me personally by now. I just don't go broadcasting my identity to random people in the media/public, since personal security gets expensive and I just want to live about my day. 3. Endless X bot spam - I have endless hundreds of comments a day trying to link external communities pretending they're me. I manually delete, and block thousands of these accounts, sometimes hit regular people by accident. And it's extremely exhausting to the point my fingers cramp certain days. Even if I give the most blatant warnings in bio, people still get scammed and think it's me. Then I get blamed for it too. I actually had a conversation where someone asked if a scammer was me. I said no verbatim, then they double checked like 2-3 more times because they didn't believe I said no because someone had the same username on another scam platform. In another world, maybe we'll get automod type tools. But until then, it's mentally exhausting dealing with all of this. But I do so anyways since I don't want my followers to get scammed. 4. Endless engagement baiting - I have tons of people making up fake stuff about me, tagging me in posts, randomly bashing my ideas while missing any technical nuance in order to get me to comment or farm views. It's a catch 22 since the moment I reply, they get a lot of views, which was their goal. And if I don't reply it just looks like I'm avoiding something (which is not true). I'm very transparent, I always try and entertain people who disagree first. But when it gets into personal attacks or leading questions/disinformation rather than substance then I don't engage. It's a little sad though when people I've interacted with end up caring more about engagement over relationships down the road. 5. People missing the nuance - I share ideas pretty often and I always maintain I don't want people to copytrade or blindly follow, which is why I haven't set up any copytrading apps. Before it was just posting with a few $RDDT friends on ideas like $AXTI, $NBIS, or $ALAB, and people were more knowledgeable traders. Then seeing if markets validate my guesses like with InP substrate bottlenecks. But because many turned out directionally right, to the point it became a central talking point between China/US trade relations, lot of random folks started to follow my account last few months. But many of them miss nuances with float dilution, or material updates along the way such as rate hikes, and I get blamed if a thesis changes. Now since there's so many random people, even if I share an idea about $CBRS last Friday. At market open I had people panicking over a 2% drop, asking me if I did something to a $44B+ company, even if it went up 20%+ today. Now I have compliance review for posts, which delays things a lot but makes sure people don't get the wrong idea. And I have to be careful about my timing, so I post new ideas when markets close. Before, it was just sharing ideas the moment I had them during lunch or in the shower, so this is becoming a headache. 6. I post my core ideas for free. And I've always said this from the start. I actually made my subscribers chat literally by accident, and set the bare minimum amount on purpose since I didn't want to take people's money. But kept it so I could avoid the bots and not spam the main timeline with random thoughts/scrapped research. I think me becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X was literally by accident. But lot of weird narratives out there when media or others don't believe that I just genuinely want to share my ideas for free. And that people shouldn't need to pay $300 in a paywalled community to see them. _ Not sure if people want to read it all, but just some things I've gone through. It's not as much fun at higher numbers and it would be nice to go back to when I was smaller. Regardless, I'd rather not turn this into a job, or make it feel like one. Will probably take a break when I hit 1M as a milestone and do something else that will help out the community like sharing my research pipelines and such. Think a lot of my friends at 10-50K follower counts, seem to experience some of these issues too. But problems get magnified a lot at this level. I never needed the X creator fees or anything, just wanted to share ideas for fun if people wanted to listen. And didn't expect any popularity, but it's nice to see that people find my ideas compelling.

@AdamBLiv We could easily go under 40k and I wonder what happens to Strive and Metaplanet then, if MSTR drops that much at 41k already.

MSTR Stress Test - Bitcoin crashes to $41.5k and mNAV gets cut in half: Starting Balance Sheet: Stock price: $103.79 Shares: 358.90M BTC held: 847,363.00 ₿ BTC spot: $62,042 Cash: $1.40B Debt: $6.71B Preferred: $15.48B Current CEBE sats/share: 142,733 Current CEBE mNAV: 1.17× Claim ratio: 39.5% Wrapper fee: 3.39% Stress Assumptions: Horizon: 6 months BTC drawdown: 33% Drawdown duration: 6 months Price path: linear recovery Bottom mNAV: 0.70× Recovery mNAV: 1.00× Preferred capacity: $0/mo Common capacity: $0/mo Payment method: cash first Shortfall fallback: sell bitcoin Result: Stress result: SURVIVES Months to failure: Survives full horizon Worst BTC price: $41.57K Ending BTC: 847,363.00 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 90,002 CEBE sats/share change: -36.9% Max claim ratio: 61.9% Cumulative dilution: 0.0% BTC sold: 0.00 ₿ BTC purchased: 0.00 ₿ Ending implied stock price: $21.92 Company survives the stress but ends with lower CEBE sats/share. Educational modeling only - not investment advice.

@ZynxBTC I like the QQQ, but im little worried about the new fast entry rule, whats your thought on these recent changes?

@MoormanFan Great question. I have recently been contemplating 20% of my wealth into something like QQQ to capture the AI trade.

Bitcoin in self custody will always be my priority and my largest position. The ability to move capital in a censorship resistant and decentralised way is unmatched by anything else in existence. It is the only asset where true property rights can be held entirely in your head with just twelve words. Everything else is built on top of this foundation.

Ich denke, dass Strategy, Strive und Metaplanet im nächsten Bullrun grosse Chancen bieten und gerade ein super Einstieg möglich ist, speziell Metaplanet entwickelt sich gerade enorm stark und hat in Japan quasi eine Art Monopol.

@bumlebi @PunterJeff @Strive As a Shareholder im very concerned about that scenario, the stock will have a hard time under 40k and selling ASST or SATA could go very rough there...

@MoormanFan @PunterJeff @Strive Yeah. They are talking about their cash on the balance sheet. They have other means like selling ASST or SATA to cover dividends. Again this only works if you believe that Bitcoin go up over time. The cash is a cushion to manage the volatility but over time Bitcoin need to go up

If capital markets access were completely shut off, the @Strive balance sheet can pay SATA dividends until December 2027, without selling a single Bitcoin. That’s 4 months before the anticipated 2028 halving.

@bumlebi @PunterJeff @Strive "Did you know Strive's current balance sheet could withstand a repeat of the 2022 bear market without needing to sell a single Bitcoin? That would equate to a ~$40k $BTC bottom & not sustaining above the 200 WMA until Oct 2027." Thats what he said on his Timeline 🤷

@MoormanFan @PunterJeff @Strive No. He has never said that that. He won’t have to sell until he run out of cash or buyers of MSTR or STRC

@bumlebi @PunterJeff @Strive He said they would not have to sell Bitcoin if the price goes to 40k, so that suggest they would have to sell Bitcoin under 40k, right?

@MoormanFan @PunterJeff @Strive They have cash on hand so bitcoin price wouldn’t matter that much as long as it goes back up again within a timeframe compared to other bear markets. If it goes to 25k stays it is hard for everyone

@bumlebi @PunterJeff @Strive Thats true but as a shareholder I want to know how Strive is preparing for difficult scenarios.

@MoormanFan @PunterJeff @Strive Hi RS, Please define easily. The 60k got heavily rejected last time we were in that area. If you are not DCA’ing right now when would you be a buyer? There are a lot more avenues into Bitcoin than during the last cycle when we saw 69k.

@ColeMacro Hi Matt, you said that Strive would not have to sell Bitcoin, if Bitcoin bottoms at 40k, but Bitcoin could likely bottom beyond that, so how is Strive prepared for a price Target like 25k?

Deep dive this week on risk and how high the data suggests Strive could take amplification given our balance sheet. The data can almost "feel" uncomfortable, but it's critical to understand and make business decisions based on data, not feelings. Enjoy!

@AdamBLiv Hi Adam, Matt Cole said, that Strive would not have to sell Bitcoin, if Bitcoin hits a 40k Bottom, but how is Strive prepared for a lower Price Target like 30k, what do you know about that?

With Bitcoin dropping under $66,000, $ASST is now 60% amplified Bitcoin. Get ready for MAX VOLATILITY. They can’t default. IT’S TIME FOR WAR. BULLISH ASST.

@CorvusBTC @diglloyd @IIICapital Even sooner, they are about to raise 4,2 Billion.

Today's $BTC malaise looks bullish as hell for $ASST and $MSTR price action. PREDICTION: Strive $ASST is gonna rip heads off this money even if Bitcoin languishes in the low $70K range. @IIICapital

@JonathanLittle fish on a heater 😬

A 69-year-old walked into a $200K buy-in poker tournament. No experience. No logic to his play. 4 days later, he walked away with $8M, and left only a mysterious note on a notepad. Here's what happens when you face a man with no rules (and how to deal with him): 🧵

@RomanReher Ich bin seit Jahren Blocktrainerfan und das bleibt auch so, aber das klingt schon schwer nach Sektengequatsche, nichts für ungut Roman.

Blocktrainer ist eine Reise in unseren Verstand. Es ist der Weg in die individuelle Freiheit. Es ist eine Leidenschaft und meine Berufung. Danke, dass wir diesen unglaublichen Pfad zusammen gehen. 🧡

@Michael80085635 @RomanReher Jesus? Calm down bro...

@RomanReher GM Roman, Du warst gestern wieder Jesus! Deine Darstellung wie eine Welt unter einem btc Stnd sein würde und daß wir alle in ein uns permanent enteignendes FIAT System hereingeboren werden, das wir für vollkommen normal halten war 👌 btc mach diesen Betrug erstmals sichtbar

@GofackYorself @RomanReher Klingt wie dieses Botgequatsche.

@RomanReher Roman Reher, ein Gegenmittel zum Gedankenvirus. Ein Vorbild, ein Lehrer der seinesgleichen sucht, einer der sein Wort hält und mein Begleiter und Mentor zugleich. Danke an alle Blocktrainerlinge. Danke an den Mensch Roman.