Morris May

@Rebartic @CharlesOBarry ....half a dozen shots of Grey Goose as a hair of the dog, you mean

@CharlesOBarry He forgot to take his meds this morning!

He' said those who voted Leave are 'idiots' and are 'stupid'. I'm sure he once said he never called them these things. #OBINGO

@Rebartic The irony of attacking those in government in the US being unelected. Just wait until he hears about Hemer the first unelected Attorney General for a century, Sue Gray, Morgan McSweeney or Mandelson being appointed to a traditionally civil servant role...among others #OBINGO

Yet another hour on "Why did Trump go to war?" #OBINGO

@MenAtWork_MC I slightly exaggerated. Victims will be tracked via gps on their phones. Not tagging but certainly monitoring of their every movement. IMO that is punishing them twice

@MorrisMay Ah, right: "A pilot scheme costing £5m will also be launched where new proximity monitoring technology will be tested. It will create an alert when offenders convicted of crimes such as domestic abuse and stalking approach their victim." Not sure but implies victims connected 1/2

Can only see this reported in the T’graph - is there any truth to it?

@Rebartic if anyone is wondering who the victim is this hour, it is Jobby because there are those that dare call him out for what he is. Less so those being executed by a brutal terrorist regime, because reasons #OWANKER #OBINGO

@SheonaG @MenAtWork_MC They are tagging serious sexual predators and rapists but also tagging their victims so that they can ensure that victims aren't approached by their attackers

@MorrisMay @MenAtWork_MC Who are they tagging?

@Rebartic But he has revealed over the past few days that his news rag of choice is New World

10:35 - 1 caller so far and O'B is still waffling! #OBINGO

@MenAtWork_MC It isn't great. I am not sure what it says about a country that can only keep rape victims safe by tagging them, but here we are

@MorrisMay Good grief. Nightmare scenario

@MorrisMay One minute telling us the Kinks sang "Should I Stay Or Should I Go?"

This hour! #OBINGO

The big move in the short end of the Gilt curve (+90bp since Iran War began) has a lot of influencing factors right now, and there is a degree of selective interpretation depending on priors. But I would suggest a top five: 1. The UK is by DM standards a high inflation economy (because it rations energy, land and capital). Inflation has averaged 3%/year since 2010. An energy shock hits UK hardest, so inflation premia on short dated Gilts quickly emerges 2. UK rate cuts and an inflation slowdown were a consensus trade for Q2 so unwinding that positioning by allocators risks overshooting - particularly with a scarcity of institutional Gilt buyers (one of the legacies of the ongoing DB-DC pensions transition) and ongoing QT 3. An expensive bailout of household and business energy bills would likely result in an unexpected increase in short-dated Gilt issuance - so higher interest rates will be required to clear the market. I am surprised GBP has held up so well FWIW. 4. Rayner manoeuvres of recent days brings UK political change (with more issuance, more spending, more friction, institutional uncertainty) back on the table. Pricing that impact (comments about the OBR are classic bogeyman tactics) remains tricky, but qualitatively it certainly has been noticed. 5. BoE appears worried around inflation expectations - that remain elevated, at least in survey-based measures. A hawkish reaction that asserts low tolerance for any “look through” reprices the UK rate path. That kicked off yesterday’s move - but the qualitative MPC comments couldn’t justify, in isolation, the degree of repricing. Some of these factors unwind v quickly on anything that looks like a ceasefire - the benefits of being a high beta sovereign. Some are longer-lasting (political/structural) and should signal to Labour MPs demanding “rewritten fiscal rules” that the starting appetite for more issuance is already thin.

@Rebartic 26 minutes of deranged ranting. He is on something or hungover, for sure. Can we assume that he approves of decriminalisation of abortion to birth and sees nothing wrong with Mandelson's association with the world's most notorious paedophile, as he won't touch either subject?

After a brief two hour hiatus yesterday, during which he repeated the phrase 'bigoted idiot' 67 times, aimed at Nick Timothy and a determination to tickle the scrotums of a particular demographic, he's back on Trump. His happy place. "Dick by name" again. He's so edgy! #OBINGO

@notayesmansecon With a swing from -50 bps base rate cut now being replaced by+40 bps expectation this year, how badly will this effect OBR forecasts and hence pressure on RR amid calls for increased defence spending and intervention in household energy bills?

If there are any more questions for my weekly economics and financial markets podcast then please let me know.

"So you want the UK to join the EU?" "Yes" "So you want to give up the Pound and accept the Euro" "No" "So you want to join the Schengen area and allow completely open borders" "No" "So you want to be part of the EU Migration Pact, another 100k illegal migrants to the UK a year" "No" "So you want to re-introduce the testing of cosmetics onto animals, required by EU law" "No" "So you want to re-introduce live exports of animals for fattening or slaughter" "No" "So you want to give control of UK fishing waters and quotas back to the EU" "No" "So you want to reverse the protections of UK marine birds like puffins, who were endangered due to EU overfishing of the main food source" "No" "So you want to give up the better trade relationship the UK now has with the USA, Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Singapore, and countless other countries" "No" "Well it sounds like you don't want to join the EU then"

@julianHjessop Keep an eye on US Treasuries v UK Gilts 10 yr spread. Now 58 bps up from +50 overnight

After January's bumper surplus (because people are paying a lot more tax), the public finances came back down to earth in February... The government borrowed £14.3bn last month, £2.2bn more than in February 2025. This is not a big miss, and borrowing in the year to date is still down. But worryingly, the increase in February was due to higher debt interest costs - even before the fallout from the Iran war. The figures were also still flattered by higher CGT receipts as people sold assets to beat the tax hikes in Labour's 2024 Budget. Above all, any improvement under this government still depends on further increases in the tax burden, rather then spending restraint... 🙄

@notayesmansecon Bond vigilantes love it. US Treasuries v UK Gilts 10 yr spread now +58 bps up from +50 overnight

Sadly the better UK public-sector borrowing figures in January were not repeated in February. "Borrowing: the difference between total public sector spending and income was £14.3 billion in February 2026; this was £2.2 billion more than in February 2025,"

Abortion time limit; 12 weeks: Germany, Italy, Greece, Denmark, Austria. 14 weeks: France, Spain. 24 weeks plus no penalty for mother aborting up to full term: Britain. Vying for the Infanticide Cup with People’s Republic of China.

For progressives, a collision with brutal reality in the world they created…

Here’s Albanese, the PM of Australia, getting mobbed and screamed at at a mosque while he talks about how he’s fighting ‘Islamophobia.’ This is a matter of weeks after Muslim gunmen went on a deadly Jew hunt on Bondi. Something so slapstick about this. This guy, and his party, are the perfect embodiment of cowardly, craven, dogmatic progressivism. As has been absolutely standard in mainstream liberal circles for many years, they responded to a jihadist atrocity against their own people by point blank refusing, wherever possible, to even mention that this attack had anything to do with Islam. They refused to use the words ‘Islamism’ or ‘jihadism’, and condemned generalised ‘hate’ and generalised ‘antisemitism’ etc, to obfuscate and unfairly tar the whole of Australian culture with the crimes of a radicalised Islamist minority. Then they pivoted, immediately, to focussing on Islamophobia, and did stuff like ban jewish speakers, who were flying to Aus to discuss the massacre on Bondi, from entering the country because they’d been ‘offensive’ about Islam. Then they visit mosques, and get absolutely hounded by big groups of angry men, some shouting ‘Allahu akhbar’, others calling them ‘dogs’ etc. But none of it will change their behaviour because they are motivated not by a desire to protect their citizens or pursue truth, but rather to uphold their cultish quasi-religious mainstream-progressive narrative at all costs, always, forever.

@Danjsalt that Boriswave has resulted in UK importing a whole lot of unhappy, ungrateful people. Canada's record immigration seems to have the same issue. Maybe it is just immigration as things turned up once Biden was given the boot, in the US👀

@Marblechops79 @danielfoch @Mrleeebeee This actually goes back to the Boriswave for the UK. Interesting to see what happened in the US when Biden was kicked out...with Canada also having record immigration, is there a theme?

@danielfoch @Mrleeebeee Unsurprising really with Carney & Starmer in charge

Canada has observed the largest decline in happiness in the world (along with the UK)