@yieldsearcher @McClellanOsc I would think that higher input prices is inflationary
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Mr.Monster
10.2K posts
Mr.Monster
@MrMonsterLLC
I post images of stocks I think are tradable. News junkie, earnings junkie. IAAGG Not investment advice. My thoughts are random and are not recommendations.
Katılım Ocak 2023
340 Takip Edilen447 Takipçiler
I am old enough to remember my old economics lesson where central banks hike rates to cool an overheating economy.
I must have missed the part where they taught that a supply-shock driven increase in oil prices is massively stimulatory.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
TRADERS BOOST ECB RATE BETS, PRICE 59BPS OF HIKES BY YEAR-END
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Listening to the talking heads on TV discussing what President Trump will do with Iran. All described well reasoned and well thought out options. That’s not how Trump rolls . No plans , no reason, that’s how he rolls .
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@TrendSpider Gold was a hedge , gold was a central bank asset. Now I see gold was just the next speculation .
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$KO
Still room to the downside here after hitting the 50ma and $75 psych level today.
Puts paying.
Grime@CoreyxTrades
$KO Bear flagging right off the 9ema. 50ma + 75 psych below.
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🚨 TRUMP: I TOLD ISRAEL NOT TO HIT OIL AND GAS FIELDS
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@TheShortBear Likely Trump just walks away when he is tired of this .
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The main question you have to ask yourself is this.
What is likelier?
A multi month war against an enemy that can guerilla fight and take oil hostage, which will go full kamikaze if it doesn't have a choice in the end.
An under the table deal with Iran that will unsanction their oil and allow through non-intervention a tax on using the strait.
I mean this is exactly the type of deal that allows the US to save face and allows Irans conditions to be met.
Futhermore the US has achieved its goals, the nuclear program is gone (probably never was there this time around), the missiles are mostly gone, the military position is weakened...
What are we still doing there?
The US could never accept direct payments and reparations, not in front of China and the world right as it consolidates power.
That leaves the door open to leave and essentially say that they wont get involved in Iranian business anymore and its on allies to take care of it.
Allies will have agreed to the Iranian terms through non-opposition to get Oil and Gas flowing again.
No guarantees this is what is happening and Israel & US might choose to quadruple down but there is a path out here being built potentially.
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Wouldn’t be surprising if we end up seeing Iran’s off-ramp terms quietly accepted, at least in part.
Something along the lines of:
A ~10% levy on shipping through the Strait
Partial or full relief on sanctions for Iranian oil
The shipping levy alone could generate roughly $70B annually, helping offset wartime damage, especially when combined with renewed oil revenues.
At first glance, today’s developments look contradictory, with the U.S. escalating militarily while potentially easing pressure economically.
But that may be the point: create maximum leverage upfront, then offer a structured exit that both sides can accept without appearing to back down.
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Unreal how propaganda works on the masses.
I’m not telling you a secret here, it’s not my opinion.
Either the USA attacked proactively and Israel joined or Israel made the US believe that the threat was bigger than it appears so they’d attack.
Both cant be true.
Of course if Israel is left alone to deal with this they‘ll have 10x the job to finish so of course they‘ll try to keep the US involved by making it harder to find an end to it.
We saw similar behavior for the Iraq war. This isn’t new behavior.
Rubio March 2nd:
"We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action; we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties,"
"I might have forced their (Israel’s) hand," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office as he met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
1. Rubio’s Account (Entrapment/Reactive): The U.S. had to attack to protect its troops from the fallout of an Israeli strike that was going to happen regardless.
2. Trump’s Account (Proactive/Strategic): The U.S. drove the timeline because Iran was allegedly preparing to strike first, and the U.S. essentially brought Israel along.
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Israel got the US to get involved, and now does all it likely can to keep it in the fight.
Dominic Michael Tripi@DMichaelTripi
NEW: Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly focused on blocking Trump’s pathways to a ceasefire and follow-up talks with Iran by killing members of leadership most likely to negotiate according to European Council on Foreign Relations director.
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@MarioNawfal WTF is Israel doing? The US should quit that attack now. Have a plan, follow the plan or get the F out !
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This video is going viral claiming it’s from the strikes on Qatar tonight
It’s not
It’s actually Oman last week
BS being spread all over the place for clicks without verification
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
Tonight will be a bad night for the Gulf Iran will retaliate hard for the strikes on their largest gas field
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@TheShortBear I don’t have trumped arrangements syndrome, but I think I have Trump fatigue
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Feels like the US has gone from avoiding NATO involvement in Iran, to quietly seeking it and not getting it, to now effectively putting the Gulf and parts of Europe into a high-stakes all in grand finale.
With Iran’s assets being directly targeted today, the situation shifts materially.
The U.S. is essentially calling Iran’s bluff: signaling that it’s willing to escalate even if allies and partners are exposed.
There’s an implicit message, if others didn’t step in earlier, they’re now part of the risk envelope anyway.
In practice, that means accepting potential spillover damage across partnerships while daring Iran to respond.
We are actively gambling with allies/partnerships now, using them.
That leaves limited paths:
NATO and Gulf states are either pulled deeper into the conflict or forced into alignment, there’s no realistic scenario where they side with Iran.
Iran, in turn, faces a strategic decision:
Either escalate with asymmetric tools, disruption, proxy pressure, maritime threats or pivot toward an off-ramp, potentially trading de-escalation for security guarantees or sanctions relief.
The real downside scenario for the U.S. isn’t a single large escalation, it’s a prolonged, low-grade conflict.
Not directly but because partnerships will turn to China and away from the US and the damage will be slower and stretch for multiple years/decades.
A drawn-out campaign resembling Afghanistan or Vietnam dynamics, persistent asymmetric pressure, continued destabilization of the Gulf, and a slow erosion narrative aimed at the U.S. and the dollar system rather than a decisive confrontation.
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@gregrieben The market is my dedicated instructor and he will teach me a lesson I need to learn as many times, as it takes for me to learn it
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@realpristinecap Oils shipping stocks which had taken solid profits for 2 weeks may be starting to turn back up. Is this the market wondering if this Iran issue is going to last longer than expected ?
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@801010athlete people buy extended stocks and then blame the market. without focusing on getting low risk entries.
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I took an .18c loss on $NBIS today, yes .18 cents, absolutely devastating, at 8% of my acct size, RIP guys, I wasted yrs to be blown up.
I risked .30c yesterday on RKLB @ 10% size. Thankfully that worked so I survived until today. Blow ups suck.
Just wait to chase breakouts, extended, that’s how you manage risk.
PBA@801010athlete
If you take 3-7% losses of course you hate this market, duh.
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@NirAoo7 I was searching posts by the symbols I follow and didn't realize how fast posts get old
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@mark_to_mkt I couldnt help myself. I bought that today. I'm like a dog chasing a ball, a relentless chaser. haha
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$ARM gap up after falling wedge breakout. Clear change in character.
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@JayWoods3 @NicholasABrown_ There is no plan with Trump. There is never a plan.
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@NicholasABrown_ What's the schedule that we are way ahead of?!?!
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* TRUMP ON IRAN: A COUPLE WEEKS, NOT MUCH LONGER, WE'RE WAY AHEAD
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@FranVezz Francesco I considered just buying $GEV here today rather waiting for the BO because BO’s have been failing . Have you ever explored that ?
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