@88888sAccount Victoria, known for its forward thinking energy security policies.
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MrQuick_
2.9K posts
MrQuick_
@MrQuick_
Popular opinions only. On Vacation. Never got my pen licence. https://t.co/rsvrETmOkF
Katılım Ağustos 2011
2.8K Takip Edilen1.6K Takipçiler
@TRAVmoneyofmine @respeculator JKM up, NCF is correlated positively all the time. Now you can watch correl go to 1.
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Can we all pretend we were 100% thermal coal today
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Build Beetaloo
Build the flippin qld-nsw connector
Hugo@lowlandsapien
We're gonna have to bump these numbers up
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@RhinoTroy @SowingAlphaSeed Cost converges to ffr for >2yr on spy calls
I’ve been approximating to BBB spreads over ffr and has been a good approximation
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Thought experiment on using constrained leverage. I think you can fairly efficiently get 3x leverage using long-dated $QQQ calls. Suppose you want to run a beta of 1.2.
Option 1:
60% SPY
20% QQQ calls
20% cash
= 1.2 beta
Option 2:
120% SPY
-20% cash
= 1.2 beta
Now suppose the market crashes 50%.
Option 1:
30% (of initial account value) SPY
0% QQQ calls
20% cash
= 0.6 beta, down 50%
Option 2:
60% SPY
-20% cash
= 1.5 beta, down 60%
Obviously not a free lunch, you pay for the leverage and there are other risks. But it definitely has some attractive portfolio construction properties.
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@toy59496 Represents a target & catalyst rich environment as an asymmetric short.
So much for them to resolve and leadership changes not inspiring. Any substantial raise now needs a big (20%?) dilution to get it across the line.
Surprised still being shorted here despite MCap
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Quiz : Mayne Pharma
Interpret this substantial holder notice today.
Note that MYX will be removed from ASX300 on 23 March.
Extra points for determining the role of the three Citi Group entities, each of which is serving a different function.
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$IFL.AX : Arbitrage
Quick update on this one given it has a 4.35% gross yield which annualised is about 33% and closes in April.
The risk with this arbitrage has always been APRA approval and that remains outstanding although we have comforting words from the company at the end of January
"CC Capital, which is responsible for lodging various regulatory applications including with APRA and FIRB, has been encouraged by its regulatory engagement process to date and anticipates the required regulatory Conditions Precedent to be resolved in a timeframe to allow for Insignia Financial shareholders to vote on the Scheme in the first half of 2026,”
The break price could be quite low with a substantial loss particularly given recent grim experience with $MYX and $AUB and the $IFL predeal price being significantly below the prevailing price.
The drop dead date is in July so the acquirer can exit at that time if there are any delays with APRA approval.
Some very big positions by the larger players that like the yield.
I had a very large position but sold out last week as I needed the cash for an activist play, but frankly looking at the above I don't like the risk benefit and would sell out. We have all been screwed by regulators one too many times in the recent past, looking at you $MYX.AX.
Interestingly there was a little burst of short interest that quickly went away -- probably after the announcement that APRA dealings were constructive.
x.com/toy59496/statu…
@BaileyHLAM @trade4a_livin @99Proble
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@pastperformerAU Absolutely 100% agree, should be a rush from mid cap managers buy on back of proper earnings too, so much upside.
Purely for arguments sake, core business is rooted however. Lost a PM and funds are run by unimpressive people. Marketing machine no longer impress either.
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The legacy $MFG has some of the best bones to work with in the market. Barrenjoey with a balance sheet and track record says don't bet against them. They could do a hell of a lot with very little. Paying 12x for something that is going to grow very fast, look at L1 and platinum
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@compound248 @FrancoOlivera I’m currently half way through the wiki page for it haha
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When someone with two kids tells me they’re thinking about a third (or three a fourth), I always answer the same way:
I’ve never met a person who regrets any of the children they have.
I’m sure they exist (and they probably live in Manhattan), but in the real world:
More Children = More Long-Term Happiness.
Long-term happiness doesn’t mean always easy or joyful or stress free.
Quite the opposite.
But there is a real sense of eudaimonia
New York Magazine@NYMag
Sooner or later, everyone has to decide whether to give up lazy weekends, disposable income, and overall peace of mind to have a baby instead. For many of those on the fence, one anxiety looms large: What if I make the wrong choice? Parent regret is more common than you might think — the r/regretfulparents sub-Reddit alone gets around 70,000 weekly visitors who anonymously commiserate — though stigma makes it hard to admit in real life. Writer Bindu Bansinath speaks with three moms of young children about why they wish they could go back to their old lives: nymag.visitlink.me/Sv0c_9
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@ResearchQf Mechanically I agree but I’m deathly worried we’re wrong and we’re just frogs in a pot.
No sign of adults in the room, no de-escalation.
So isn’t the 7mth merely pricing in complacency?
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WTI crude backwardation (7th vs front month in % terms) hit -21.7% today, surpassing the Ukraine invasion peak.
Since 1972, backwardation neared or exceeded this level only ~ half a dozen times. This is unusual even with structural changes.
Not a short term forecast but just an observation of what's priced in this market slice. What scenarios seem more likely (or not)?
QF Research@ResearchQf
1) Record backwardation in #oil a few days ago. #WTI 7th vs 1st month. Extreme backwardation usually near a price peak. Extreme contango usually near a low. Remember crude closing at -$40 4/20/20? 7/1th contango was $69. $SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities twitter.com/ResearchQf/sta…
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@gbrl_dick Here a shit take for you, was it wrong because specialisation means you can overfit in the nicest manner possible
And that “overfitting” can’t be done by the large models because they’re missing domain expertise context
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in 2024 i was very persuaded by the takes of my big lab friends that large models would just end up better than everything.
was this wrong because structurally there are better returns to specialisation than we realised, or was it wrong because compute became a constraint earlier than expected?
Jamin Ball@jaminball
Awesome job by the @databricks team My summary: They trained a model called KARL that beats Claude 4.6 and GPT 5.2 on enterprise knowledge tasks (searching docs, cross-referencing info, answering questions over internal data), at ~33% lower cost and ~47% lower latency. The key insight: instead of throwing expensive frontier models at enterprise search, you can use reinforcement learning on synthetic data to train a smaller model that's faster, cheaper, AND better at the specific task. RL went beyond making the model more accurate. I t learned to search more efficiently (fewer wasted queries, better knowing when to stop searching and commit to an answer). They're opening this RL pipeline to Databricks customers so they can build their own custom RL-optimized agents for high-volume workloads. I think we'll continue to see data platforms become agent platforms. Databricks' KARL paper is really an agent platform play. The pitch: you already store your enterprise data in the Lakehouse, now Databricks will train a custom RL agent that searches and reasons over it, tuned specifically for your highest-volume workloads (workloads = apps = agents). The business move is closing the loop: data storage → retrieval → custom agent training → serving, all on Databricks. They're turning "your data lives here" into "your agents live here too." Kudos @alighodsi @matei_zaharia @rxin
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@ShitValueFund @respeculator @Geologo_Trader Vancouver?
Worst fucking place ive ever been to in my life. Failed leftie state.
I saw multiple junkies getting revived in 3 days.
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@respeculator @Geologo_Trader Last time I went to Canada (2025) I saw junkies smoking meth in pipes in public in broad daylight in the downtown area.
They are about 10 years ahead of Australia on the fukt scale
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