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MrBates🐂
4.9K posts
$BTC
We should now be looking for lower levels in the coming weeks/months.
#Bitcoin breaking the previous low COMPLETELY changes the outlook now when it comes to the primary counts. Bulls had every chance to keep it alive after completing 3 of the 5 necessary components of the triangle in a WXY sideways combo that we originally assumed as it continued to distribute in 3-wave moves.
Scenarios:
1️⃣ Flat (currently in wave C)
Don't like this, but it's the last distribution pattern if we use the macro 5-wave move into an intermediate degree wave (1). The entire range would then be classified as a sideways structure that we originally anticipated, but C wave now breaking market structure hitting the $60K regions.
2️⃣ Macro Ending Diagonal
Working as a WXY to the downside using the ATH as the cut point to help give the current price action the necessary wave separation. Target is also in line with the $60K regions as the flat idea.
In easy terms, both are giving pretty much the same medium timeframe targets.
Now, in terms of organizing the next wave structure and prepared alternatives, we resort to a shorter timeframe bearish bias, and macro top to be made before a possible massive blowoff top to occur near the end of the decade.
It's best to now assume the move from ATH is separated price action to help give the move down its necessary wave structure more room from a Fib Extension point of view to understand minimum and maximum target zones.
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N64 Zelda Ocarina of Time remade with Unreal Engine
SuperSisi@SuperSisi
If Nintendo's NES Super Mario Bros was made with Unreal Engine
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AI has killed Bitcoin forever.
It became Bitcoin mining’s biggest competitor.
Not another crypto.
AI.
Because both industries compete for the same thing:
electricity.
And right now, AI is willing to pay much more for it.
Bitcoin mining revenue per MW:
$57 – $129
AI data center revenue per MW:
$200 – $500
Same electricity.
But up to 8x more profitable.
That’s why miners are starting to pivot.
Core Scientific signed a massive AI hosting deal.
Hut 8 signed a $7B AI infrastructure agreement.
Cipher Mining cut its hashrate 51% to focus on AI compute.
So a new question is emerging:
If AI becomes the highest bidder for electricity, what happens to Bitcoin?
In my new video, I break down:
• Why miners are switching
• What it means for hash rate
• And the two scenarios that could play out for Bitcoin
[link in comments]
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@macrojack21 No. I bought more in 2018 and wasn’t scared. Not scared now either
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MrBates🐂 retweetledi
In collaboration with @unchained, ARK Invest's new paper on Bitcoin and Quantum computing is live!
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Bitcoin and Quantum Computing
This paper assesses whether and how advances in quantum computing (QC) pose a risk to Bitcoin. Our two central arguments are as follows:
1. Quantum is a long-term risk but not an imminent threat. The community must continue to research and make plans for protecting the network as quantum computers improve.
2. If quantum computing were to affect Bitcoin’s cryptography, the process would be protracted and undertaken at a cost to the attacker.
Today’s quantum systems lack the capabilities required to compromise Bitcoin. Meaningful breakthroughs would disrupt internet security first, triggering coordinated responses well beyond Bitcoin. In our view, quantum development will be a gradual technological progression—not a sudden “Q-day” event—giving markets and the Bitcoin network time to adapt.
Quantum computers use qubits that can exist in superposition, enabling quantum algorithms to scale more quickly than classical algorithms. Their performance is measured by parameters like the number of logical qubits and the degree of logical depth, both of which must be high and error-corrected to have an impact on Bitcoin. Today’s systems operate in the so-called “NISQ era”—roughly 100 logical qubits and circuit depths in the hundreds—both well below the thresholds necessary to break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography (ECC). To do so would require at least 2,330 logical qubits and tens of millions to billions of quantum gates.
Of the Bitcoin supply currently exposed to the quantum threat, ~1.7 million bitcoin (BTC) lie in vulnerable P2PK address types and are believed to be lost, and ~5.2 million BTC lie in migratable re-used or P2TR addresses—adding to ~35% of total outstanding supply.
That said, quantum risk is unlikely to surface as an event but as a protracted sequence of observable milestones, as follows:
Stage 0: Quantum computers exist but are not commercially useful. Today’s quantum computers operate with limited logical qubits and high error rates, presenting no threat to Bitcoin.
Stage 1: Quantum computers become commercially useful in fields like chemistry and materials simulation, well before cryptographic applications manifest.
Stage 2: Quantum computing becomes powerful enough to break weak keys or deprecated cryptosystems.
Stage 3: Quantum computers can break elliptic curve cryptography of the kind used for bitcoin keys, but they take a long time to do so. Quantum-vulnerable bitcoin is now at risk.
Stage 4: Key-breaking occurs more quickly than Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time, network viability requiring protocol-level, post-quantum cryptography upgrades.
Against that backdrop, the most important investment-related questions are:
1. When will quantum computing break an elliptic curve key for the first time, and when will the subsequent break take place?
2. Who will control early quantum capability, and what will be their incentives?
3. What will quantum attacks cost relative to other more profitable or rewarding efforts?
4. How effectively will the Bitcoin community coordinate governance decisions and implement post-quantum cryptography?
This paper argues that quantum risk will evolve over an extended period of time, with many intermediate warning signals and decision points. An abrupt single point of failure is unlikely.
ARK Invest@ARKInvest
Is quantum computing a risk to Bitcoin? @dpuellARK and @Unchained's @dhruvbansal and @tom_honzik dive into this question in a brand new white paper. Read here. ark-invest.com/white-papers/b…
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🇺🇸 Trump has called for a $1.5 trillion defense budget in 2027, a $500 billion jump from this year's $901 billion.
That's the biggest peacetime boost ever proposed, aimed at funding his "Dream Military": Golden Dome air defense, new battleships, precision munitions, and more.
Source: Reuters
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 HOW IRANIAN MISSILES WOULD TRY TO REACH ISRAEL Missiles launched from Iran have to pass through several defense lines before reaching Israel. They can be intercepted by U.S. systems in Iraq, by Jordan’s air defenses, by Israeli fighter jets, and even by U.S. warships in the region. If any missiles still make it that far, Israel’s own multi layer air defense tries to shoot them down. But during large barrages, a few missiles can still slip through the system. Source: @HashimKhan-m4z - Y
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Wow, what happened in the early/mid 1940s?
Amazing Maps@amazingmap
The last time each European country was invaded
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THE U.S. HAS STARTED PRINTING MONEY AGAIN
THE DOLLAR WILL CRASH AND BITCOIN WILL PUMP 🚀
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Energy. War. Bitcoin.
The global power shift is already underway.
Our 10-part miniseries drops Monday.
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@RonSwanonson @Mi_halb You should block him instead so he can't see your posts
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@Mi_halb I’m going to continue and I encourage you to continue to comment on all of my stuff
You’re gonna go back on mute now, but your comments are still buying me bitcoin, so thank you
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It’s ironic to me that people say Bitcoin is “backed” by nothing…
When in reality, Bitcoin requires energy to create, and energy is one of the only things you cannot fake in the entire world
So when people say this, they are really touching on the subject that makes Bitcoin so incredible in the first place
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Don’t get me wrong. I’m totally fine with Saylor pumping my bags to nine figures one day. But at this point, he’s not doing Bitcoin any good anymore.
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@_The_Prophet__ I'm going to play the identity game and build some proof in public together with attaching my output to a number that matters. Awesome! I'm good!
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⚡️Gen Z is the first cohort to enter adulthood after the ladder broke and before the new ladder is built.
The meme lists symptoms. The signal is the mechanism.
The mechanism is margin collapse.
Rent and housing eat the margin.
Debt eats the margin.
Entry level compression eats the margin.
War noise eats the margin.
AI eats the margin by turning “starter tasks” into software.
When margin collapses, three things happen.
First, risk dies. You cannot move, quit, experiment, or fail safely. You become obedient to the paycheck. That is why anxiety is the dominant emotion. It is not weakness. It is accurate accounting.
Second, the credential loses its magic. A degree without margin is not a key, it is a heavier backpack. The market still pays for competence, but the old badge no longer guarantees access. That feels like betrayal because it is.
Third, the social contract flips. The old deal was effort plus time equals security. The new deal is leverage plus positioning equals optionality. If you do not have leverage, you are not just underpaid, you are replaceable on a shorter clock.
AI is not the whole story, but it is the accelerant. It hits the exact layer Gen Z historically used to climb. The first two years of spreadsheet work, analyst work, junior dev work, coordinator work, basic marketing ops. That used to be the apprenticeship. Now it is a feature. So the pipeline narrows and the remaining seats require proof, not potential.
This is why aggregates can look fine. The economy can be “okay” while the entry and middle feel like a meat grinder. The pain is concentrated. The winners are quiet. The losers are numerous. The average lies.
Here is the real signal.
For the next 12 to 24 months, the world will keep telling Gen Z the problem is attitude, attention span, hustle, or entitlement.
The real problem is that the economy is repricing human labor from “default input” to “premium edge.”
Only two classes keep pricing power.
People who own an outcome.
People who can drive a loop.
Own an outcome means your name sits next to a number that moves. Revenue, retention, cost, risk, quality, time to ship. If the number moves, you are harder to delete.
Drive a loop means you can take ambiguity, turn it into an action, run the action repeatedly, and compound the result. AI makes loops cheaper, so the winners are the ones who can design them and aim them. Everyone else becomes a passenger on someone else’s loop.
So what do regular people do.
They stop playing the identity game and start playing the leverage game.
They pick a domain where results show up weekly.
They build proof in public or in receipts.
They use AI to multiply output, then attach that output to a number that matters.
The meme feels like doom.
It is actually a sorting function.
Gen Z gets crushed if they keep trying to win the old way.
Gen Z becomes lethal if they learn leverage early, because the older cohorts are still playing by rules that no longer exist.
Bark@barkmeta
The life of Gen Z: - College degree is worthless - Rent is half your paycheck - AI is replacing your job - Houses cost 20x your salary - WW3 started and you might get drafted - Boomers asking why you're stressed
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@EtherRawl Of course this is how it works. I thought that was common knowledge
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Someone asked me recently even before the conflict officially started and told me “If a war between Iran and Israel happens, then the DXY should go down because they will print money"
I told him “No, that’s not how it works” In times of war or major geopolitics shock, the DXY usually rises because the USD is considered a safe haven asset compared to other currencies, investors tend to pull their money out of regions affected by the conflict and park it in the USD instead.
That’s why we see the DXY rising, and if you think this is healthy, you’re wrong because it means that something somewhere is about to crack, even worse than what we’ve seen so far.
The good news is what happens next, the bad news is what’s happening now.
Rawl@EtherRawl
One of the best looking charts right now is the DXY. A quick summary of what happened is that we took liquidity below the lows each time followed by a bounce, without reaching my lower target between 94.6 and 93.3. This suggests that a move back to higher levels was only a matter of time. Either way, as I mentioned earlier in the year in another post, I expect us to revisit 100.8 or slightly higher, where a local top will likely be printed again. In theory this may initially come with some turbulence, potentially leading to market capitulation while Bitcoin gets its BOS. From there on the DXY a move down to new lows will positively impact the markets, fueling aggressive moves among risk-on while risk-off assets will provide good hedging opportunities.
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@TimKotzman Never sell is a stupid take. Of course you can sell to diversify, buy a house, buy a horse or whatever
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@RomainHedouin @elonmusk If you are this lazy just use FSD or Autopilot in EU
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Self-driving is cute, but I will donate 2000€ to children with cancer if my Tesla gets a speed limiter feature in a software update
Your move, @elonmusk
Tesla@Tesla
Teslas are the only vehicles you can buy today that drive you to your destination with the tap of a button FSD Supervised handles all your driving, from navigating city streets to maneuvering freeways to finding a free spot & parking itself
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@TheMoonCarl Looks like your jeans may have had some kind of ballistic missile interaction
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@FinanceFreeman You guys are kind of cute for thinking Kaspa has a chance. The POW KING is Bitcoin, no one else
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Not buying Kaspa at these levels would be a disservice to my kids.
My target for $KAS is 2.3 cents, but who knows?
What I do know is that I was happy buying a big bag at the top when KRC20 launched, so I am extremely happy now.
Everything about Kaspa is better now than it was at any point previously.
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@VinnyLingham Of course they aren't going to sell all of it. Thought you were sharper than that
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They should do a deal with Saylor and just sell it to him OTC. Dumping this much BTC on the open market would be very painful.
Coin Bureau@coinbureau
🚨 BREAKING: LARGEST PUBLIC BITCOIN MINER MARA HOLDINGS TO CONSIDER SELLING ITS BITCOIN RESERVES MARA, the second-largest public Bitcoin holder, has updated its treasury policy to allow potential sales of its stockpiled Bitcoin. The company currently holds 53,822 $BTC, ranking just behind Saylor’s Strategy.
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Neither is #Bitcoin / $BTC.
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno
Silver is not a geopolitical hedge, but oil, nat gas and gold are
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