NRL Backyard Bets

Best win I’ve ever had as a punter 🏆 2019 NRL Top Try Scorer — Maika Sivo Idea came from a mate (mate that lost the 20 legga) We did the homework. Then went all in. Biggest hurdles: • Would Brad Arthur pick him Round 1? All signs said yes. • There was no market — we literally rang books and asked them to price it. He opened 150/1. We piled in: 150s, 130s… even grabbed some around ~25/1 during the season, we didn't need to stake that much! Came down to the final round: Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sivo was 1 try behind Ken Maumalo. We booked 12 tickets at the Cumberland Lounge, shouted a bunch of our tradies along. Confidence high… then halftime hits — no Sivo tries. Second half? 💥 Hat-trick. Game over....was an awesome night (man I drank some beer) Between us we cleaned up around ~$70k. I lost $1500 covering a Maumalo hat-trick hedge against the Raiders (never happened)… Who's your 2026 top try scorer? #NRL #NRLBetting #Punters #BackyardBets #LongOdds

Congrats to the “visiting team”

I did tell you 🤣 ⬇️

So Storm beat Parra then Parra beat Broncos then Broncos beat Storm…does that make Parra better then both? 🤣

@9_Moley @PenrithPanthers @sydneyroosters Bit if both I think Moley

Are @PenrithPanthers that GOOD... or @sydneyroosters that BAD??? #NRL

Brian Too 👌

Round 2 continued... Panthers by 6 Broncos by 4 with absolutely no confidence just want to see Gordy Tallis v Michael Maguire next week! BYB Model Panthers by 2 | Exp Points 42.5 | Exp Tries 7.2 Storm by 12 | Exp Points 51 | Exp Tries 8.7 #NRL

Roosters vs Panthers | Rd 3 Tryscorer Angles 🎯 The top tryscorer plays across both teams, combining form, opponent history, venue data and defensive weakness signals. (Penrith don't have many 😳) 1. Brian To'o (Penrith Panthers) — 5t in 7 vs Roosters is a premium head-to-head record. Roosters leaking 0.48/g to right wings adds the positional tick. 2. Daniel Tupou (Sydney Roosters) — 67t in last 5 seasons, 0.90/g in last 20, 24t in 31 at Allianz — best strike rate on the park, targeting a Panthers side that leaks 0.54/g to left wings. ROUGHIE Isaiah Papali'i (Penrith Panthers) — 1t/1g in H2H, venue AND combined metric — thin but perfectly stacked. Roosters leak 0.32/g to left edges. At market price this is the value play.

@champingyon Graham out replace him with Bula and fire it back up

This has a better chance of winning but is not nearly as much fun as watching the previous one win.....

@LeagueScenePod Yeah only when its certain referees and certain home ground fortress venues!

Cowboys coach Todd Payten has gotten clarity from the NRL for his side’s poor first half discipline. Payten told reporters in Townsville that “I had some dialogue with the referees and they’ve been given directives to stamp their authority on the game in the first 15 minutes”

@SuthoDan2 He is the Golden child 🤷‍♂️

Everything you all thought Nathan Cleary, Reece Walsh etc were, when it came to referee protection and bias, that is actually Stephen Crichton 86 nitpick 6agains yet the worst one of the night is ignore cause it's the golden boy Two games in a row now

@dezodeez Did the same thing, didn't take the that tight a Try bands though...great work.

S/o Nate 🫡 Fed the People

NRL Round 3 - Salmon vs Ricky Round 👀 Only do tonight's game been super busy BYB Raiders by 4 BYB Model Raiders by 2 | 44 Exp Points | 7.5 Exp Tries Good luck ✌️ #NRL

#Sport MarketWatch Podcast NRL Game Previews! Best Bets 👌 #Racing #NRL Plus our 3 Anytime Try plays! All here! #Tristan @Betr & #Jimmy @ThatJimmySmith & #MrG @ReadingThePlay chat Racing, NRL, insights and plays for the week! #Racing #NFL + tips #TuneIn ✅ 🐎 🏈 All Here ↘️ open.spotify.com/episode/0wzqX8…

@ReadingThePlay Imagine Henry Perenania in the six again era 🤣

#NRL Round 3 Game Tips Raiders by 4 Panthers by 8 Storm by 10 Warriors by 8 Sharks by 10 Rabbits by 6 Eels by 4 Cowboys by 6 Free Game Notes below readingtheplay.com.au/nrl/expert%20t…

@ReadingThePlay @MikeMeehallWood Yep I loved the take a couple of Journo’s had showing Storm and Penrith leading the way in set restarts yet 2 from 2…its about when and where you give them vs when and where you get them. Have some interesting data from first two rounds.

What we can see from these two (Raiders & Bulldogs) is that, alongside the Broncos and Storm, they are the best at manipulating a stupid rule. How to watch the set restarts in NRL Round 3 c/ @MikeMeehallWood open.substack.com/pub/mikemeehal…

@FOXNRL That was their intention…🤷‍♂️

'FREEDOM TO MAKE THAT CALL' 👀 The Bronson Xerri saga has the the potential to allow the Bulldogs a spine switch if their attacking struggles continue... But there is a $2m reality Cameron Ciraldo and the club can't ignore. TALKING POINTS 👉bit.ly/4bvhhuH

@Jonty07 Dogs will go left more then right though I suspect

@NRLBackyardBets Im guessing this doesn't take into account that kiraz and critta are now on the left?

Raiders vs Bulldogs | Rd 3 Tryscorer Angles 🎯 The top tryscorer plays across both teams, combining form, opponent history, venue data and defensive weakness signals. 1. Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 0.75/g H2H vs CBY, 0.60/g at GIO, Bulldogs leaked 0.71 tries/g to Right Wings in 2025. Three signals, one play. 2. Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 9 tries in 6 H2H games vs Canberra (1.50/g). 3 from 3 at GIO. Form is down but no one scores against the Raiders like Crichton. 2 Tries v Raiders at GIO did come when play'n for Penrith & is now left centre, Caution. 3. Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 12 tries in last 20, 3 from 5 H2H, scored both GIO trips, Raiders leak 0.71/g to Left Wings. Four signals all pointing the same way. BIG ROUGHIE for your longshot multi Jaeman 'weak gutted dog' 🤣Salmon Career rate of 0.12 per game tells you to look away — but Salmon has scored in every GIO appearance (3 from 3) and has 3 tries in 4 H2H meetings vs Canberra. The sample is small and the base rate is low, so price will be juicy. The specific GIO/Canberra combination is the angle. Good Luck. Choose wisely BYB ✌️ #NRL #NRLRaidersBulldogs

@Jonty07 Yeah both would have scored those tries playing on the right.

#NRL Round 3 Went this way! Game Tips Raiders by 4 Panthers by 8 Storm by 10 Warriors by 8 Sharks by 10 Rabbits by 6 Eels by 4 Cowboys by 6 Game Notes Raiders v Bulldogs Ricky Stuart milestone of 300 games as Raiders coach. Raiders have a handy head-to-head record here, have won 5 of last 6 H2H when at this ground, and won 7 of their last 9 home games. Also enjoy a good record of covering 10 of the last 14 when at home. Raiders off back to back away games return home, and enjoy a very good record responding in such circumstances when off a loss. They were in the contest for far longer than it looked on paper last week, and that Warriors form line is starting to look ok. Bulldogs off long post Vegas break and prep, attack was very clunky first up, and while they dominated field position, they did not convert. Like the Raiders first up at Home. Roosters v Panthers Roosters have found the Panthers a very tough nut to crack for a number of years now, have lost 11 of the last 12 match ups with all 11 of those wins each by margins wider than 4.5. Allianz Stadium has also not been a factor with Panthers having won 6 of their last 7 here. Roosters much better last week, certainly far more physical and committed to their D, and while things got close late then did enough to win, Robson back a key in. Panthers are such a well coached, well oiled machine, conceded just the one try to date and toweled up what we would expect to be top 6 contenders to open the season in Broncos and Sharks. Liam Martin a nice key in for them as well. Can’t be against the Panthers. Storm v Broncos Off so many top of list outs through the off season Bellamy once again turns water into wine with the graduation of players like Leo, Chan, Lisati and Clarke as they now get their chance in the starting 17. Not sure yet how these opening two games form strength stands up; the Eels were a walk (all free notes below ↘️) readingtheplay.com.au/nrl/expert%20t…