Nabuh

OI spiked from 46B to 53B this week. Most people saw the price move. Few understood what was building underneath it. Here's what Open Interest actually tells you and how to use it with CVD to read moves before they happen 🧵:

@0xNonceSense Interesting, every prior cycle tagged it before a real bottom. Onchain supports the same story, NUPL and LTH SOPR haven't reset, Realized Price at $53.6K. The script hasn't changed yet.

$BTC FOLLOW THE SAME SCRIPT EVERY CYCLE Every. Single. Time. - Minimum 350 days of pain - Bottom doesn't form before MA350 gets touched - Price always falls further than the crowd thinks possible Here's the problem. $BTC is still holding around $80K while the 350-day MA sits near $47K, completely untouched. That gap doesn't stay open. It never has. Everyone is celebrating strength too early. The real flush comes when confidence gets too crowded, and right now the market is acting like the bottom is already in. It's not. When $BTC finally tags the 350-day MA, that's the moment I flip aggressively bullish. Not before. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll post it here first. Turn notifications on. Most people will follow me too late.

@mikealfred Options expiration pinning is real. Market makers defend max pain levels aggressively into the close. Adds another layer to why $BTC struggled at $82.5K all week. Structural resistance + options positioning + distribution orderflow all pointing the same direction.

@rektcapital Exactly. Calling the bottom here requires dismissing every historical cycle timing framework simultaneously. Bear markets don't end in 1/3 of the usual time without a fundamental change in how Bitcoin cycles. Onchain hasn't confirmed capitulation. Data doesn't support it yet.

#BTC If you believe the Bitcoin Bear Market bottom is in already... That means you believe some of the following: - The Bear Market has shortened to just 1/3 of the usual time it takes for Bitcoin to bottom - That there has been a drastic shallowing across Bear Market corrections by ~25% (whereas the historical difference in shallowing across Bear Cycles has been up to ~10%) - The previous Bull Market never ended, that price is currently recovering from a Bull Market correction and that the previous Bull Cycle has lengthened by over 200 days Effectively, the belief of "the Bear Market bottom is already in" assumes major invalidation of long-standing principles in Bitcoin market cycles which is probabilistically unlikely until proven otherwise (i.e. via price breach of Macro Lower Highs) $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

@Barchart 30Y yield at 5.12%, highest since pre-GFC. Bond market is pricing in persistent inflation and fiscal stress, not a soft landing. For $BTC, this is the macro ceiling getting reinforced in real time. Risk assets don't thrive when the cost of capital is at generational highs.

BREAKING 🚨: United States of America U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield soars to 5.12%, the highest level since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis 📈🇺🇸 Dear God 🤯

@TedPillows Coinbase Premium deeply negative = US spot sellers leading the move. Adds to the distribution thesis we've been tracking all week. spot CVD trending down, asks dominating, for now this looks more like distribution at the current levels.

Take a look at the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium. $BTC is getting sold like crazy.

@Washigorira Power Law lower bound aligns with onchain: Realized Price at $53.6K is a key magnet before we even get close to $42.8K. Capitulation would need to print first. The 2018-2019 case is valid, that bottom took months of ranging before the expansion began.

#Bitcoin BTC has never bottomed below the lower boundary of the Bitcoin Power Law V2.0. Even in a deeper flush below the February low, the model would suggest $42,800 as the lower bound. Not saying we get there. Current bottoming structure looks eerily similar to 2018–2019.

@KillaXBT Range. Capitulation. Expansion. In that order, and we're still early in the range phase. Onchain hasn't printed full capitulation signals yet. Most will get shaken out waiting for a move that takes longer than anyone expects. Patience is the edge here.

The truth is, People want to believe it’s over before it actually is. After being down for so long, most naturally gravitate toward whatever short term price action is showing, usually optimism after the first strong bounce. The reality is that market structure almost encourages this behavior. The more participants believe the bear market is over, the more liquidity enters the market. Historically, markets spend months ranging before true expansion phases begin. This cycle will likely be no different. Ranges allow larger players to scale large positions and build leverage before the next major move. What we don’t see are instant recoveries. People want to make back everything in one trade, but markets rarely work that way. The market chops, ranges, and exhausts participants long before the next real expansion begins. Most get shaken out emotionally or financially before the larger move finally arrives. Range. Capitulation. $BTC

@rektfencer Bear market rally thesis is valid, structure from $126K top still intact, no real trend reversal confirmed. Onchain support that we have lower to go as well as historical bear markets data. Until structure is broken, down remains the most likely outcome.

THIS IS THE FINAL BULL TRAP It was easy to see coming. $BTC is never going up only. Zoom out. See you below $60K.

@WhaleInsider Structure suggests this could still be a bear market rally before real capitulation. S&P 500 at ATH with 10Y yields at 4.54% screams euphoria, not sustainable growth. Cycle timing doesn't support a sustained move up either. 82% for $75K before $100K makes sense in this context.

JUST IN: 82% chance of $BTC hitting $75,000 before $100,000, per Kalshi traders.

@TheMoonCarl BTC dominance pushing higher with $BTC still below key resistance, that's capital rotating to safety within crypto, not risk-on rotation. Alt season doesn't start until dominance rolls over with conviction and BTC structure confirms. When it does, opportunities will be there.

$BTC.D may have one more pump left. After that, you'll get generational entries on alts. Are you ready?

@BullTheoryio Bond market pricing higher for longer while equities chase AI earnings, that's the disconnect. Historically the bond market wins that argument. For $BTC, rising yields across all maturities = tighter financial conditions. Not the ideal setup for a sustained risk rally.

🚨 THE U.S. BOND MARKET IS SCREAMING A MASSIVE WARNING. While the S&P 500 just hit a fresh record high of 7,501, the bond market is pricing in higher interest rates for longer. The 30 year yield is at 5.085%. The 20 year is at 5.092%. The 10 year is at 4.538%. Every maturity is rising at the same time. Stocks are at all time highs because the AI boom is driving earnings and the market is pricing in years of continued growth. Bond yields do not care about AI. They care about a $2 trillion annual deficit, oil at $100, persistent inflation and a government borrowing more money every single day to fund a war. Both cannot be right. And historically it is not the bond market that is wrong.

@IT_Tech_PL @kiyotaka_ai Perp-driven moves without spot confirmation are usually unreliable. Spot CVD trending down the entire move + asks dominating throughout, no real foundation behind the push. Until spot buyers step in and CVD flips, every bounce is just futures chasing.

$BTC rallied 3K. Spot buyers didn't show up. CVD: - Spot: -79M (sellers dominated) - Perp: +590M (futures led the move) Funding: 0.0013% - positive, longs paying shorts Order Book: - Spot: -747 ask-side - Perp: -118 ask-side The entire pump came from perps. Spot volume stayed passive. Perp-driven moves without spot confirmation don't stick. If the spot keeps fading, watch for this to unwind fast.

@AshCrypto BTC is a risk-on asset with a fraction of S&P 500 liquidity. 10Y yields at 4.54%, bear market bottoms take longer than expected. Good news gets sold into when structure isn't ready. $83K is a wall for a reason.

The biggest crypto bill in US history just advanced to the Senate. Stocks just hit a new historic high. And $BTC still can't break $83K. Can someone explain this?

$BTC HTF structure update — price is currently sitting at a decision point, a major resistance cluster. The $82.5K–$86K zone is stacked: - Anchored VWAP from the October top - Previous range breakdown area - $86K: major low before previous range breakdown + Value Area low of the prior range acting as resistance This is not an easy area to break through. To the downside: 1) $80.6K needs to hold for any real shot at those levels. Lose it and $79.2K comes back into play (local lows + previous double top). 2) Below that, we have a major $77–78K liquidation/stops cluster. 3) If we were to break below, $74–75K is the next major zone, Value Area High of the current range + multiple support/resistance flips. This is a key level, going below it we make visiting the range lows a highly probable scenario. Flipping 86k as support would be extremely bullish and give a solid hint that we can expect higher prices until at least $92.5-100k. However, this is a very tough resistance so being cautious is important here. The structure is clear. We're at a decision point.

@MaxCrypto $USDT.D breaking above the bull market support band = capital still parked in safety, not rotating into risk. A rejection would be bullish for $BTC but it needs to happen with conviction. Until USDT.D rolls over and starts trending down, the bid for crypto isn't there yet.

$USDT.D is now trying to break above its weekly "Bull Market Support Band." A rejection means BILLIONS will flow into $BTC and alts.

@MerlijnTrader Death Cross as a long term buy signal historically is valid, but the drawdown in bear markets before the recovery is the part most skip. -49% to -67% first, then the opportunity. Onchain hasn't confirmed capitulation yet. The pain part of the playbook may not be done.

WARNING FOR BITCOIN BUYERS: Every Bitcoin Death Cross was the best buy signal in hindsight. With all the good news. I'm still bearish. CLARITY Act advancing. Trump-Xi deals. Nvidia chips cleared. All real. All bullish. But the chart doesn't care about narratives. Fourth Bitcoin Death Cross forming. $77K Ichimoku: the line that decides everything. 2015: Death Cross. -67%. Then 10,000%. 2018: Death Cross. -57%. Then 2,000%. 2022: Death Cross. -49%. Then 650%. For bears: confirmation incoming. For cycle buyers: the greatest setup of this cycle. Pain first. Then opportunity. That's always been Bitcoin's playbook.

@cryptomanran $79K holding is critical, lose it and the $77-78K liquidation cluster is the next stop before $71K comes into view. Structure from the $126K top is still intact, no real trend reversal confirmed yet. Onchain also hasn't printed a bottom signal either. Data supports caution here.

NOT HAPPY ABOUT THIS. DOWN MORE LIKELY. Let's look at the set up, Yesterday Bitcoin made another attempt to break out of the flag. The attempt was Saylor have a great last day before STRC went ex-dividend. The attempt failed. Now Saylor is out of the market on STRC for a while (3 weeks). Without him I don't see how we break the flag and if we don't break it - its down from here! First level: $79k must hold. Second Level: $71k. I don't even want to talk about anything after that...

@cryptoquant_com @MorenoDV_ STH whales flipping from sellers to holders would remove significant overhead pressure. But that needs $BTC to hold above their cost basis consistently, not just bounce into it. Spot CVD still trending down and asks dominating suggests distribution hasn't stopped for now.

Short-Term Whales Decide the Next Move “If BTC can stabilize above this cohort’s cost basis, unrealized stress disappears & these whales may transition from defensive sellers into passive holders again, removing significant sell-side pressure from the market.” – By @MorenoDV_

$BTC orderflow update We bounced from the $79K level to $81.8K, and now retesting $80.6K (one of the key level on this range) The move up wasn't so clean: - Spot CVD trending down: spot players not backing the move so far. Looks like distribution from their side. - Asks were dominating and contained the price at ~$81.8K. Adding to the local distribution thesis. - Funding flipped negative at the top of the move up, actually leading: shorts opened into the rally and price has been retracing since then. Funding is now neutral. - Some longs added from the local low. Open interest has been slowly increasing but nothing significant, no new conviction. As mentioned, $80.6K holding matters. Lose it again and $79.2K comes back into play fast. If it holds we might get another shot at those highs.

@CryptoHayes 10Y at 4.54% and climbing .. Higher yields tighten financial conditions regardless of what the Fed does. More pressure on risk assets. $BTC at key resistance while yields spike is not the setup bulls want.

Common Buffalo Bill Bessent do something!!!!!