Matthew Cappucci@MatthewCappucci
Have weather forecasts seemed less accurate lately? There's a major contributing factor: nearly half the morning weather balloons in the Lower 48 are "missing."
This is an ongoing crisis that is degrading critical severe weather forecasts that we all rely on. It's having real, tangible impacts on degrading forecast quality.
If you work in transportation, agriculture or commerce, this should matter to you.
Regardless of the causes, this negatively affects people of ALL political backgrounds. Weather affects everyone. And it's impacting ALL of us negatively.
We can't look at weather balloon data that doesn't exist. We can't pump nonexistent data into models. We can't rely as heavily on models that don't "know" what's happening above our heads.
This is especially concerning for severe weather forecasts. We can't go 18 hours without ascertaining how the atmosphere is layered, how much storm fuel has built up and if severe thunderstorms are going to erupt. The Storm Prediction Center has even acknowledged forecasting frustrations in at least one public bulletin.
As an atmospheric scientist myself, I can say firsthand – the forecasts I'm able to offer you are less accurate than they would otherwise be. I'm not able to predict severe weather with the confidence I normally would. That is extremely concerning.
The United States is "supposed" to launch balloons at 0Z and 12Z ideally – a.k.a. around 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. Eastern time. That's not happening. Many sites, due to staffing issues stemming from broader political and organizational issues, have pushed to 18Z, or early afternoon. That's not helpful for morning severe weather forecasts. In other words, you get less lead time. Less advanced notice. Quicker ramp-ups and ramp-downs to the forecast.
We're not able to get jet stream, temperature, moisture or wind profiles of the atmosphere each morning like we otherwise would.
Moreover, the World Meteorological Organization encourages 12Z soundings; that data is shared via the Global Observing System (GOS) under the World Weather Watch (WWW). That's not happening.
