NStPierre523

2026 Topps Series 1 Update Including Celebration Boxes If you enjoy content like this, please consider following me on Substack where you'll have access to my entire archive of product analysis breakdowns, many including editable Format Value Spreadsheets. open.substack.com/pub/slabsquatc… As the pre-order window for Series 1 Celebration Boxes is upon us, and with product surprisingly still currently available, Topps graciously dropped an updated odds sheet that includes the new format. At first glance, this might look like just another novelty retail SKU. In reality, Celebration Boxes are a legitimate contender in the retail landscape and offer a solid option for those looking for value in the ocean that is Series 1. Several metrics are affected by the new format, not the least of which is print runs. Because of that, after breaking down the highlights of this new format, I will also include a full set of updated print run estimates for unnumbered parallels at the end of this post. There are also some other interesting additions to the odds sheet you won't want to miss. Updated Total cards in product (Including Celebration Megas): 558,065,504 Up from 508,957,904 before adding Celebration Megas. The additional format added almost 50m new cards to the mix. Celebration Megas in total represent about 9% of total card production of 2026 Series 1. Updated Base cards of each player: 1,380,028 Up from 1,281,202 ea. Total production of Celebration Mega Boxes: 2026 Series 1- 258,900 boxes (12,945 cases) 2025 Series 1- 125,052 boxes (6,253 cases) YOY +107% This is unquestionably a major production increase, but it should not shock anyone. Celebration Megas replaced Opening Day last year and, by most accounts, was a runaway success. Demand was strong, the reception was positive, and Topps responded the only way manufacturers ever do when something works. They made more of it. Even with the added supply, I’m going to walk through why this format still goes toe-to-toe with Hangers and may very well surpass them as the best retail value in the product landscape. These Celebration Boxes feel very similar to the Target Black Friday Blasters from recent NBA Flagship. Those had a production run approaching 350,000 boxes and were designed for a single-day retail event. They were loaded with unique parallels and chase content, and they sold out quickly. That alone told us demand massively exceeded supply. Now compare that to these Celebration boxes, of which there are 33.5% fewer produced. They are one of the best retail formats for pulling many different parallels and most inserts. This includes rare, highly sought-after inserts like Homefield Advantage, Heavy Lumber, All Aces & All Kings. Additionally, there are entire subsets of inserts and parallels that can only be found in Celebration Boxes. These include case-hit level and tougher subsets like Dugout Peeks, Walk This Way, and Hidden Mascots, as well as elusive Mascot Autographs and Dynasty Auto Patches. The biggest bummer I noticed is the wildly popular "Big Heads" are no longer included. I've said it before and I'll say it again...collectors love Big Heads. I'm SHOCKED Topps nixed those from this product. Regardless, these are quite a bit better than typical Mega Boxes, and overall rival Hangers as the best retail format available. I'm honestly surprised they are still available on Topps website, by the box or by the case. Hit Rates: Autos should fall 1 in every 20.9 boxes (essentially 1 per case on average). Autos are slightly tougher to pull in these than in regular Megas, which produce a rate of 1:18.5 boxes Parallels/box- 11.7 (This represents the most parallels per box of any format, even more than jumbos, though 7 of them will be base confetti. This is slightly ahead of the number of parallels found in Super Boxes, which offer 11 parallels/box, with 5 being Silver Crackle Foils. Inserts/box- 44.5 (That is not a typo. Celebration Boxes offer many of the usual regular retail inserts as well as their own checklist of different inserts, with 3 of them being case hit level or rarer. You should see roughly 3 inserts per pack. Numbered Cards- should fall 1 in 1.3 boxes. Not quite 1 per box, but close. Most boxes should produce at least one numbered card. Relics- 1 per 6.5 boxes Conclusion: If you are hunting Series 1 value, Celebration Megas are one of the better places to look. But let’s keep expectations realistic. I am grading this on the Series 1 curve, not against the broader hobby. Series 1 retail has a long history of feeling like a desert with occasional cardboard mirages, so “good” here does not mean “loaded.” It just means your odds of not being completely disappointed are a little higher than usual. Through the Years Golden Mirrors: A few collectors recently showed off a confusing rare pull called Through the Years Golden Mirrors, which are separate from the Golden Mirror Legend Variations. Initially noted on the checklist, but not the odds sheet, their scarcity was unknown. Those posted included Throwback Rookie Variations with Golden Mirror backs of Judge, Ohtani, and Mantle. To the Original Posters, I estimated the print runs would be similar to the Legend Golden Mirrors at ~23 copies each. Hank Aaron and Ken Griffey Jr. are also on the checklist, though I have yet to see those pop up. The updated odds sheet has now confirmed that estimate, with Through the Years Golden Mirrors also landing at ~23 copies per card. Aside from the Celebration Exclusive items and TTYGMs, a few more line items popped up on the updated odds sheet: 1) Jerry Seinfeld autos are available almost solely in Hobby & Jumbo formats with the base auto having a print run of 25 with parallels of Black /10, Red /5, and Foilfractor /1. 2) We now have separate entries for ultra-tough "Iconic Topps Buybacks Redemption Cards", and "75 Gifts for 75 Years", which were already called out on the odds sheet. There was some confusion about these as we were not sure if the Graded Buybacks were a part of the 75 Gifts (Tickets to Events, Sizable Gift Cards, Stadium Experiences, etc). Now it appears they are separate. Topps announced 75 Buybacks will be distributed within the three 2026 Flagship releases. For Series 1, it looks like there are 19 of them inserted, 10 in Hobby boxes & 9 in Jumbos. Similarly, 21 of the 75 Gifts look to have been inserted into Series 1 products. These are distributed into most formats, both hobby & retail, but are exceedingly scarce. Updated Value Landscape: Prices are based on MSRP for retail formats, aside from Floor Display boxes as I haven't seen those anywhere except ebay for $160. Unfortunately, it appears $140/hobby and $300/jumbo are here to stay. $/card: 1) Fat pack- 19¢ 2) Hanger- 25¢ 3) Megas & Celebration Megas- 26¢ $/parallel: 1) Fanatics Value- $3.00 2) Super Box- $3.62 3) Celebration Mega- $4.27 $/Auto: 1) Jumbo- $300.00 2) Hobby- $411.76 3) Hangers- $660.00 $/# Card: 1) Celebration Mega- $63.00 2) Hangers- $72.30 3) Megas- $95.00 Updated Print Runs: Unnumbered Parallels: •Silver Crackle Foil- ~2,335 ea •Diamante- ~6,300 ea •Opening Day (Celebration Megas)- ~650 ea •Holo Foil- ~8,500 ea •Pink Diamante- ~300 ea •Rainbow Foil- ~11,460 ea •Aqua Rainbow Foil- ~520 ea •Aqua Holo Foil- ~235 ea •Pink Holo Foil- ~1,170 ea •Spring Training- ~7,085 ea •Confetti (Celebration Megas)- ~5,180 ea •Pink Confetti- ~100 ea •Lime Green Confetti- ~50 ea •Sandglitter- ~1,110 ea •Topps Logo- ~1,445 ea •Golden Mirror- 83 ea •Golden Mirror Legends- 23 ea •Team Color Border- ~1,440 ea •Player Number Variation- print run equal to player's jersey number •True Photo Variation- ~100 ea Inserts: •Cover Athlete Cards (10 card CL)- ~70 ea •2025 All Topps Team (12 card CL)- ~96,700 ea •All Topps Team Pink- ~960 ea •Topps Profiles (25 card CL)- ~99,790 ea •Profiles Pink- ~960 ea •Big Ticket Players (26 card CL)- ~96,050 ea •Big Ticket Players Pink- ~960 ea •2025's Greatest Hits (28 card CL)- ~93,400 ea •Greatest Hits Pink- ~960 ea •First Pitch (9 card CL)- ~97,120 ea •First Pitch Pink- ~965 ea •1991 Topps (100 card CL)- ~105,275 ea •1991 Topps Pink- ~970 ea •1991 Topps Crackle Foil- ~10,400 ea •1991 Topps Pink Crackle Foil- ~460 ea •Stars of MLB (30 card CL)- ~503,940 ea •Stars of MLB Crackle Foil- ~480 ea •Titans of the Game (20 card CL)- ~529,750 ea •Titans of the Game Crackle Foil- ~480 ea •Home Field Advantage (20 card CL)- ~460 ea •Heavy Lumber (20 card CL)- ~480 ea •All Aces (10 card CL)- ~300 ea •All Kings (15 card CL)- ~230 ea •Funko Base Cards (5 card CL)- ~490 ea •Oversized Base Cards (16 card CL)- ~15,325 ea •Companion Card (16 card CL)- ~15,325 ea •Through The Years Golden Mirror (5 card CL)- 23 ea •1952 Variation (25 card CL)- ~90 ea •1991 Topps Koi Fish (100 card CL)- ~3,000 ea •Dugout Peeks (30 card CL)- ~230 ea •Walk This Way (50 card CL)- ~230 ea •Hidden Mascots (20 card CL)- ~230 ea •Mascots (30 card CL)- ~60,410 ea •GameDay Drip (20 card CL)- ~60,410 ea •Perennial All Stars (25 card CL)- ~72,500 ea •8 Bit Ballers (25 card CL)- ~72,500 ea Autos: •Funko Base Autos- /10 •Major League Materials Autos (86 card CL)- ~80 ea •City Connect Swatch Auto Relic (16 card CL)- ~80 ea •Heavy Lumber Auto Relic (60 card CL)- ~25 ea •Baseball Stars Autos (83 card CL)- ~940 ea •1991 Topps Autos (185 card CL)- ~460 ea •First Pitch Autos (9 card CL)- ~100 ea •75 Years of Topps Die Cut Autos (77 card CL)- ~75 ea •Flagship Real One Autos (48 card CL)- ~170 ea •Cover Athletes Autos (10 card CL)- ~20 ea •Mascots Autos (20 card CL)- ~100 ea Relics: •Major League Materials (87 card CL)- ~2,525 ea •City Connect Swatch Relic (50 card CL)- ~415 ea •1991 Topps Relics (91 card CL)- ~2,190 ea •Real One Relics (80 card CL)- ~235 ea •Mascot Relics (20 card CL)- ~405 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsSeries1CelebrationMegaBoxes #2026ToppsSeries1

just got offered the only sequential set in the world i’ll take one, you take the other? 👀 @MINHxDYNASTY

A PSA 10 Mega Gengar ex Special Illustration Rare just sold on eBay for $3,100. Is Mega Gengar one of the most underrated modern chase cards right now? #collectr #gengar #pokemoncards #psa10 #pokemontcg