Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱 TRUMP’S HARDEST JOB IS TO KEEP NETANYAHU FROM RESTARTING THE IRAN WAR
Trump got the headline he wanted with the two-week Iran war ceasefire, backed by Israel, though Netanyahu’s office immediately stressed that Lebanon was not included.
That matters because the hardest part for Trump is no longer getting a ceasefire, it's keeping it alive, and the most dangerous variable now may not be Tehran.
It may be Netanyahu, a leader who has every domestic incentive to avoid looking constrained, cornered, or politically diminished. That risk is heightened by fierce criticism from Israel’s opposition over Netanyahu’s handling of the war and ceasefire.
The trap is obvious. If Netanyahu decides that a limited pause makes him look weak, or that renewed military action helps him politically, Trump’s “peace” can vanish in a day.
And if the war reignites, Americans will not parse the fine print about which ally broke discipline first. They will see another Middle East blowup, another oil shock, and another president who claimed control and then lost it. That's why this ceasefire is so fragile.
While further talks are due in Islamabad on Friday, military activity has not disappeared from the region, and Israel has already made clear its campaign in Lebanon continues.
Trump’s political problem is that the economic damage has already landed.
Oil did plunge after the ceasefire news, with Brent falling to $94.76 and WTI to $95.79, but that only erased part of a much bigger surge caused by the war. March saw the steepest monthly oil rise on record, and prices remain far above their pre-war level.
At the pump, the pain is even stickier.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that fuel prices could stay elevated for months after Hormuz reopens, because restoring flows takes time and markets keep pricing in risk. The U.S national average for gasoline is $4.14 a gallon, after rising more than 70 cents in the past month.
So Trump does not get instant relief, he gets a narrow window, a few calmer market headlines, and a gradual decline in gas prices.
That's not the kind of overnight reset that rescues a shaky political narrative. Trump’s approval is already at a record low, while the U.S is sharply raising its one-year inflation expectations and expecting much higher gasoline prices.
That is the danger for Republicans heading toward the midterms. Voters tend to feel foreign policy through prices, not communiqués.
They do not reward a ceasefire that lasts 14 days and then explodes. They punish chaos that empties their wallets.
Which means Trump now has one job above all others: keep Netanyahu from freelancing the region back into war. Because if Netanyahu reignites this fight, Trump inherits the relapse.
