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I suggested that if each resident chipped in $2k toward a lobby remodel, our unit values would increase by at least 10x that.
The room erupted with uncontrollable screams, and one guy literally fell out of his chair in pure anger.
Welcome to HOA!
StripMallGuy@realEstateTrent
How can a Homeowners Association possibly be qualified to manage a $100,000,000 real estate asset? Reality is, getting involved with my HOA was one of the stupidest decisions I’ve ever made, and the entire HOA system needs to be completely overhauled from scratch. They especially can’t stand the real estate folks, and you make instant enemies for making an actual intelligent suggestion.
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@EllliotttB If you’re going to defer the main benefit of real estate by giving money to someone else; which is depreciation
Then you should only give it to one of like 5 companies
And they happen to be the 5 largest REITs in the world
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My wife mentioned a nice private school over dinner this week
She said the campus was beautiful
I asked what's the tuition
She said we should look at it as an investment in him not a cost
I made a note
She said don't make a note
I said I always make notes
She said this isn't a deal
I said everything is a deal
She closed her eyes
She said we'd discuss it Saturday
I agreed
Saturday 7:02am
She came downstairs in her Saturday robe
Coffee in hand
I had my cargo shorts on
The dining room had been cleared
The projector was on
The analyst was at the head of the table
Quarter zip on, three iced coffees, a legal pad, and two laptops
He had been there since 6:44am
I texted him at 11:14pm Friday
The text said dining room 6:45am bring the model
He sent a thumbs up
My wife stopped in the doorway
She said what is this
I said you said you wanted to discuss it
She said this is not a discussion
I did not respond
She sat down anyway
The analyst stood
He said good morning ma'am
She did not respond
He sat back down
A printed deck in front of each seat
A fourth copy in case
Slide 1 Tuition Schedule
$38,500 per year
Thirteen years
$500,500 nominal
Before escalators
The school has raised tuition 4.2% per year for a decade
With escalators $648,000
My wife said okay
I said I'm not done
Slide 2 Opportunity Cost
Even before escalators
$38,500 invested annually
10% nominal return
S&P long-run average since 1928
By his eighteenth birthday $944,000
My wife said we can afford it
I said I know that's not the slide
Slide 3 Terminal Value at Age 65
$83 million
She was quiet
The analyst slid the sensitivity tables across the table
8% return $31 million
10% return $83 million
12% return $222 million
She did not look
She said this isn't about money
I said it's always about money
She said no it isn't
I said then what is it about
She did not answer
She said you can't put a dollar value on his teachers his classmates his environment
I said I can the analyst already did slide 6
He flipped to slide 6
She did not look
She said the school is the best in the city
I said best is a feeling
She said it produces the best students
I said the students were already the best before they got there
She said our son deserves it
I said our son deserves $83 million
My son walked in
He is five
Dinosaur pajamas
He looked at the projector
He looked at the open deck on the table
He looked at slide 3
He said are we modeling pre-tax or after-tax
The analyst opened a new tab
My wife looked at the ceiling
He said what's the discount rate
The analyst set down his pen
She closed her eyes
He said is this the same return assumption from the 529 conversation
The analyst stopped typing
He looked at me
I did not say anything
She stood up
Sat back down
He said dad can I help
I said yes
He pulled up a chair
The analyst handed him a printout
He started reading
My wife watched him read
She watched him for a long time
She said his name
He looked up
She said do you like school
He said the work is too easy and the kids don't ask questions
She did not respond
She looked at the ceiling
She walked out of the room
The analyst started packing up
He said should I follow up Monday sir
I said no follow up needed
He'll be fine
Sent from my iPhone

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@TicTocTick TicToc should make an etf; or one of his followers should.
Simple, TicToc ETF
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Anyone who tells me what the bond market will do loses all credibility immediately.
Evan Weir - Retail Buildings@evanweirCRE
In the cab leaving ICSC. What is the word on the 10-year moves this week? Had dinner with a CRE legend last night. He thinks rates are going higher and staying higher. Too much debt. What are you hearing?
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@OInvests @antibearthesis There will be a multiple “re-rating” on the whole space eventually
They need to build out first. Once they’re more like a REIT where dev capex = max 15%, then they’ll get re rated. For now it’s execution.
These are long term holds
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@Notorious_B0b @antibearthesis I haven’t looked into Talen enough to comment but I’ll take a look, thanks for the suggestion.
$VST is looking strong especially at current prices. Although, I don’t think the sector rotation is yet. I still think these names have more to drop first
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$NVDA CEO is telling you to buy energy stocks
He is literally saying demand will 1000x
Stocks positioned to benefit:
- $CEG
- $VST
- $OKLO
- $BE
- $GEV
- $IREN
“This is the best time in the history of humanity to invest in sustainable energy”
In 2025, he was early on semis and neoclouds:
- $NBIS at $22 → +600%
- $INTC at $23 → +500%
- $SNDK at $275 → +400%
- $CRWV at $40 → +200%
- $TSM at $240 → +80%
He’s not guessing. He’s showing you the roadmap.
Are you going to ignore him again?
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@OInvests @antibearthesis I liked VST already, but spent the last 24 hrs looking into them more - I’d agree with you that they’re likely the #1 option. But I’d prob equal weight Talen as well. More upside at current EV and multiple based on forward guidance. Strong execution
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@Notorious_B0b @antibearthesis What do you like about Talen? What makes it stand out for you?
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@OInvests @antibearthesis Why does nobody ever mention Talen TLN?
I agree like VST best of this list but like TLN better
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@antibearthesis I like $VST the most out of this list.
$CEG 2nd and $BE would be slightly different category
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@JD_Patrick They’d all be cool if the logos and font were 50x smaller
Every club even the nice ones buy merch from same place it seems with logos and font 50x too big
Bryson’s merch dealer
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