
Daniel Kotek
3.1K posts







This is Tesla’s Battery Day on steroids. And if you’ve been following how that turned out, you should be very skeptical. In September 2020, Musk stood on a stage and promised a revolution in battery manufacturing with the 4680 cell. Tesla was going to ramp to 10 GWh within a year and eventually reach 3 TWh by 2030 — enough for 20 million cars annually. The dry electrode process was going to cut costs by 50%. Five and a half years later, the 4680 program has been a disappointment. Tesla’s own top battery supplier said Elon doesn’t know how to make battery cells. The dry electrode process needed six or seven revisions. It took years longer than promised, and the 3 TWh target is a distant fantasy. Tesla is estimated to be at only about 2% of its original cell manufacturing volume goal. Now Musk wants us to believe he’s going to build a chip fab. Not just any chip fab — the biggest in the world, at 2nm, producing 70% of TSMC’s total output from a single building. Battery cell manufacturing is difficult. Chip fabrication at the leading edge is on another planet of difficulty. TSMC spent $165 billion over years to build six fabs in Arizona, and those won’t reach 2nm production until 2029. A single 2nm fab with 50,000 wafer starts per month costs roughly $28 billion, and it takes about 38 months just to build in the U.S. Tesla has zero semiconductor manufacturing experience. The timing tells the real story. Tesla’s auto business is in freefall — sales declined for the second consecutive year in 2025, with a bloodbath in Europe and its first-ever annual decline in China. SpaceX, by contrast, is about to IPO at a potential $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation. This announcement is clearly designed to attach Tesla, a business in decline, and SpaceX, a business about to go public, to the AI hyperscaler narrative, a boat Musk has already missed with xAI, which he admitted “was not built right” and had to be bailed out by SpaceX. And the cherry on top, or in space, rather, is the plan to put 80% of this compute in orbit. Data centers in space. Powered by solar panels. Launched by Starship. This is the kind of vision that sounds impressive on stage but has essentially zero connection to any near-term business reality, or any possible reality at all, according to most credible experts. The whole thing reeks of desperation. Musk is hyping an 8th-gen AI chip while he still hasn’t delivered on the promises made with the 3rd generation. He’s promising to do in a couple of years what TSMC has spent decades and hundreds of billions of dollars building. We’ve seen this movie before with battery cells, and we know how it ends. electrek.co/2026/03/22/tes…



What's your AI adoption level? (according to Steve Yegge)


JerryRigEverything snapped that Galaxy S26 Ultra S Pen like a KitKat 💀



Startup idea: fridge that uses hot exhaust air as house heater





The S26 Ultra has made great progress in professional video. I tested its anti-shake ability and found it to be significantly better than the S25 Ultra. Now you can use the 4K 120fps HDR video shooting capability for daily use, because its image stabilization has reached the level of normal mode, which is very stable.


If you’re a 23, 24, or 25 Ultra user, just buy this… and congrats, now you have the S26 Ultra 🤣🤣



Why did school never make it this simple?


german tourists when it's time to walk 6 miles next to a highway in los angeles in july for the world cup



'Engineering is the closest thing to magic that exists in the world.' - Elon Musk






@differentdoktor No pokud nevíte co je časový integrál v jednotkách výkonu tak je potom zbytečné pokračovat debatu. Nikdy bych vám nevysvětlil podstatu rozdílu GWh, GW a proč se v tom mýlíte. Naštěstí mám rád fyziku a Space X, takže ve svém volném čase tu udělám malou vsuvku reality 😁













