@GOBLINCLAN2025 @__Con_ If you had to pick the one you like best, which one would you choose?
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c bc
45 posts
I hope you listened, because most of the short-term trades are performing great:
$RYCEY - up 2.3%
$VKTX - down 2.3%
$IQE - up 20%
$ONDS - up 10%
$JOBY - up 4.6%
$CYPH - up 12%
$VELO - up 5%
$ZM - down 4%
$OUST - up 15%
$LYFT - down 1.6%
$ZETA - up 3.4%
$SOLS - up 1%
I still believe all of these stocks continue to go much higher.
This is just the start for the trades, then I will rotate into other trades.
The long-term positions remain untouched, of course.
Anything I'm missing here?
Con@__Con_
Here are the price targets for my short-term trades and long-term investments: Short-term trade targets: $RYCEY - $22 $VKTX - $35 $IQE - $82 $ONDS - $14 $JOBY - $16 $CYPH - $3 $VELO - $52 $ZM - $165 $OUST - $48 $LYFT - $24 $ZETA - $25 $SOLS - $101 Long-term investment targets: $NIO - $60 $COIN - $550 $GLXY - $60 $IREN - $100 $DGXX - $13 $HIVE - $7 $HOOD - $206 $RDDT - 360 $AMBA - $206 $CELH - $65 $SNAP - $16 $PLTR - $200 $JD - $146 $TEAM - $320 $NOW - $230 $RIVN - $40 $CRCL - $320 $OXY - $104 $MU - $1000 $DUOL - $200 $RBLX - $75 $HIMS - $95 $SEYE - $220 $BRUN - $44 Am I missing any good trades/investments?
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@cbc1758030 @mkfilko I think lower around 74 will be decent to add very lightly. And then more as it dips further. But NFA DYOR.
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$SIVE $SIVEF $SIVE.ST $LPK TA Interim Update 250526
$SIVE
SIVE still riding strong inside the channel, trading around 81.35 SEK. On the 1 hour chart, the 10EMA sits at 81.80 and the 20EMA at 77. Those are the cleanest add zones on any intraday dip. 77 to 81.80 SEK is the zone I'm watching.
$LPK
LPK holding up nicely, trading around 27.80. On the 1 hour chart, the 10EMA is at €27.80, which lines up almost perfectly with the 0.786 fib at €27.40. That €27.40 to €27.80 area is the cleanest add zone.
Just my 2c.
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@mkfilko @OGCapital25 It accounts for one-sixth of my portfolio, with an average price of 49 SEK. Is this a good time to add to my position?
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$ORCL 甲骨文的財報定在06/10日，隱含波動率雖然還沒看到「財報峰」但是基準值不斷震盪上移。從左上黃線圖表，可以看到兩年期的隱含波動率可以說是去年七月就確立了持續震盪上行的基本型態，這是2024年第四季以前沒有的現象。
如果武斷一點推測，$ORCL的隱含波動率穩定上移，很可能自去年四月川普解放日行程的低點就開始展開。
我們常說股市有一個基本現象，量比價先行。其實所謂的量就是人氣的意思，上漲需要真金白銀的資金持續推升，先有人氣漸漲的格局，才能形成上漲的條件。
隱含波動率其實也是一種人氣的指標，像 $ORCL這樣隱含波動率持續性推高，就是越來越火熱的交易氛圍，這是藏不住的 !
但公允的說，事實上隱含波動率本身不帶有方向性。所以隱含波動率節節升高，到底市場的態度如何?
我們還得看右上圖，短期Put/Call波動率差值趨勢。自四月初，波動率差值就走了一個穩定下降的型態，觸及零線時有稍微盤整五個交易日，但現在又可以看到穿越零線，向負值前進的趨勢。
從什麼時候開始?
四月初 !
你現在回頭看左上圖，四月初是當時股價局部低點，同時也是$ORCL股價反彈的起點，隨著股價自四月初反彈至今五月中旬，隱含波動率震盪向上，Put/Call波動率差值震盪向下。這可以說是我們期權版本的量價先行。
數個指標的方向一致: 看多 !
數個指標一致性看多，這在股市技術分析中喜歡稱作「多頭排列」。如今我們在$ORCL的期權交易數據中，也能挖掘出一個廣義的多頭排列趨勢。
再看左下圖，這是週五交易中的倉位變動圖，不意外地以看漲期權的新開倉為主導，看跌期權的開倉規模相對較小。
財報周目前預計是六月十日，右下圖是財報周的期權倉位分佈圖。看漲期權(綠bars)的倉位規模較多，而且可以在價外210美元的地方看到一根超1300口的累積量。
210美元的倉位算是一個上漲方向的蓋子，而目前股價無論是上漲和下跌所會遭遇的阻力都不算多。現在離到期日還有一段時間，後續我們將持續注意財報周的倉位分佈圖。
Curry_TW@KotlinerBTC
$ORCL 甲骨文的多頭並未因股價漲勢停歇而放鬆，右上圖可見未來一個月到期的期權，每一期的看漲期權波動率都大過看跌(Put)，財報後(DTE=36)的看漲期權目前也已經升到所有期權中最高的位子，肯定還會再升高。 大家可以參考我在05/12發布的分析，當時圖表中最遠期的看漲(Call)波動率還沒有升到今天的高度。現在財報當週以及財報下一週的看漲期權波動率已經持平了。 這些訊息你在短期的期權數據中是看不到的。DTE=9/DTE=16這兩期的隱含波動率都尚未升高，因為有資金跳過這兩週，將籌碼直接押注在財報周，而且相當強勢地以做多為主。 左下圖可以看到期權倉位變動，若是只看這張圖表而沒有參考其他數據，你還會以為大家都在防守而積極買Put，因為這張圖表顯示最近兩周的期權以看跌期權的開倉為主。 但實情是，根據左上圖近期波動率差值，即便是最近到期的期權，其Put/Call波動率差值也未因大量的Put新增倉位而上移，最近一個交易日反而往更負的值震盪。 這很清晰地說明了，上一個交易日出現的大量看跌期權(Put)，有相當高的成分是賣Put而非追價買Put所形成。 $ORCL的股價最近六個交易日似乎熄火了，但我對後勢依然是樂觀的。 下次股價什麼時候啟動? 我當然沒有本事預測，不過 ! 右下圖，四個不同到期日的期權，其最大痛點價格正在朝股價接近。 如果接下來幾個交易日，最大痛點價格能持續接近股價，將會給股價的上漲鬆綁束縛。
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@Frenchie_ Certaines personnes disent que le prix d’AOOI est trop élevé. Qu’en pensez-vous ? Est-ce que le prix actuel vaut la peine pour entrer ?
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Mes 5 plus grosses convictions actuellement sur le stock :
$STMPA - MCAP ~$51.5B / ~€43.8B
Semi européen sous-valorisé.
Exposition auto, industriel, Datacenter, power semis. Le marché price surtout le cycle faible, mais pas assez le levier en cas de reprise industrielle + électrification.
$GOOGL - MCAP ~$4.69T
Le meilleur mix qualité/prix du Mag 7 selon moi.
Search, YouTube, Cloud, TPUs, Gemini, Waymo. Le marché à tendance sous-estimer la capacité de Google à monétiser l’IA tout en gardant une rentabilité massive.
$AMD - MCAP ~$740B
Le principal challenger crédible de $NVDA sur l’IA. MI300/MI350/MI400, CPUs EPYC, custom silicon, hyperscalers. Exposition à la demande de compute énorme de l'agentic au travers des CPU.
$VPG - MCAP ~$1.13B
Petit dossier industriel sous le radar.
Capteurs de précision, measurement, industrial automation, défense, aviation, weighing systems.
Si le cycle des robots humanoïdes commence, rerating massif (contrats avec 4 fabricants).
$AAOI - MCAP ~$14.3B
Pure play optique/datacenter avec levier direct sur la demande de networking. Si les volumes 800G/1.6T continuent d’accélérer, AAOI peut bénéficier d’un effet opérationnel violent.
Plus risqué qu'un $LITE , $COHR , mais upside asymétrique.
En bref, ça donne une exposition à 5 thèmes :
>Souveraineté sur les semi EU + MCU
>Chaine de valeur IA + rentabilité de cette dernière
>Challenger CPU/GPU
>Robotique et capteurs de précision
>Supercycle Optique
Et ceci sont il me semble les acteurs les plus intéressants.
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$SIVE.ST $SIVE $LPK 150526 Interim TA Update
Quite ugly price action on both. Looks like the whole market wants to take a breather today.
For $SIVE, anywhere between 47 - 50 SEK are good areas to add imo, but watch for close above 47.56 SEK as that is 10EMA on daily chart. Chart still looks quite good.
For $LPK, broke below 10EMA on daily chart, watch if it goes to test 20 and see if it can close above it. Chart looks quite bearish in the short term now, and looks like it wants to consolidate/pull back for a bit like what $SIVE just went through.
If you are a trader, probably good to take some profits, but if you are a long term holder, maybe it'll be good to add at 20 euro and see if it can close above the 20EMA today.
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Serenity 就是传奇！
每次看他的分享都有新的感受！持续买入！一直持有！
GIF
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
To make things even spicier. $SIVE is run by UC Berkeley CEOs and $LITE executives. And the ownership cab table is now controlled by American institutions/investors. I’d expect things to speed up on NASDAQ listing as American institutions are heavy fond of executive teams + cap tables like this. US/Silicon Valley is now speedrunning a Swedish in name photonics company.
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@cbc1758030 You had like the past 4-5 days to load up! If you really want to get in maybe start a small position but I would suggest against going in fully
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$SIVE $SIVE.ST
Printing a giant F U candle to all the bears 🚀🚀
It has reclaimed the 10EMA on the 1D like I was watching for and did not open with a gap. Let’s not get too excited, watch for the close today to confirm we’re in the next leg up after consolidating for a week.
leki ⚔️@mkfilko
$SIVE $SIVEF $SIVE.ST $LPK TA Update 120526 $SIVE Closed at 43.14 SEK today, below the 10EMA on the daily (43.77). Not a bullish sign. On the 4h, also closed below both the 10EMA (45.44) and 20EMA (45.12), which we had just reclaimed yesterday. Also not bullish. We want to see the 10EMA on the daily reclaimed in the next session or 2, otherwise the next stop is the 20EMA on the daily, currently at 37.09 SEK. 37 to 43.80 SEK is the broader watch range. $LPK LPK pulling back too, closed at €23.1 on the daily, sitting just above the 10EMA (€22.4) which is the line we want to defend. On the 4h, closed below the 10EMA (€25) and 20EMA (€23.8), short term trend has cracked. If the daily 10EMA holds we are still in good shape, but if we lose it the next stop is the 20EMA on the daily at €18.77. Watching €22.40 closely. Position accordingly. Just my 2c.
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@cbc1758030 你这个确实太可惜了！ 财报我感觉大家都蛮害怕的 毕竟涨那么猛，万一数据不好也很难接受， 但你也别太难得！ 起码也赚了15%左右吧 赚到手的才是钱
中文
I am out of $AAOI it was a good swing trade with 30% up in a couple of days
$AAOI is one of the stocks l like to swing trade due to its high volatility
Will buy it back again if it goes back to 140s to 150s
TopInvestor@Matrix_B0SS
My $AAOI is doing well while waiting for $SIVE to explode like that and hit 80SEK People panicked and sold then I added $AAOI I am up 34% already
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$SIVE is not a only stock which is down but its % up and down always high due to high beta
Get used to it
All Semis stocks in my list are down today
TopInvestor@Matrix_B0SS
We have seen this pattern many times before Morning drop Afternoon higher high Will $SIVE break 50 sek today? Lets find out at the end of market close
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$LPK $LPK.F
Dedicated TA post for 110526
Another strong day for LPK, closed at €27.9 (+4.10%) on the daily. The stock is still trending well above all the major EMAs, with the 10EMA at €22.2 and 20EMA at €18.31 sitting comfortably below price. No daily retest yet, this thing just wants to keep going.
On the 1 hour chart, the 10EMA (€27.3) and 20EMA (€26.4) continue to serve nicely as bounce levels (marked by the yellow boxes). Yesterday's lows tagged the 20EMA exactly and bounced. €26.40 (20EMA), €27.30 (10EMA) on the 1hr is the cleanest add zone for any retest. Position accordingly.
Just my 2c.
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They were close to a deal with $SMOL in the past. Today the deal is not confirmed, but highly likely in my opinion. Multiple NDAs signed, and 1k hour, and 2k hour capacitors tests performed by "top component manufacturer" recently. This is screaming imminent licence deal to me. Then you look at all LinkedIn posts of the Yageo event in Taiwan. And the fact that cash runway is being extended with expensive bridge loans, as if management knows a share issue can be made at much higher valuations soon.
Crazy Investing@Craaazy1231
@MisterMCAP Is the Yageo partnership 100% confirmed?
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@Ren_aramb @hagardzzz Thank you. I’ve also made a profit on AAOI. I was wondering if it’s still too late to buy LPK now?
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$SIVE
It would be too funny to accidentally bankrupt a hedge fund huh…
I always live my life by the funniest outcome…
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Today I learned $SIVE was so actively shorted... That the price going up accidentally might take down hedge funds? A hedge fund Colosseum is down -19.8% last month largely due to their short position of Sivers. They now face infinite losses as CPO ramps up parabolically over the next two years. Sivers was never a short squeeze play since fundamentally, it's one of the most compelling CPO related longs. But it's an interesting effect as a byproduct, especially now that they might need to buy back % of the float.
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