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How it started, how it's going. Furus like @anandragn don't like to talk about actual trades because those can be falsified. Better to just spout some nonsense mysticism.
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Occam's Retard
365 posts
Occam's Retard
@ObvsRetardation
"Retarditas non est ponenda sine retardetate"
Katılım Eylül 2025
66 Takip Edilen35 Takipçiler
@_Dsaffronbird @alc2022 Many do, they have a ton of competitions. They don't offer anything unique.
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@alc2022 Why can any other company not replicate them ?
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Today’s price decline is proportional to how misunderstood $HIMS is.
The market doesn’t know whether it’s a GLP-1 company, a peptide company or something else.
The asymmetry is vast as AI and consumer biotech come together and $HIMS becomes $COST for longevity.
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@ContrarianCurse so the shutdown and accelerating vaccination programs caused it to last longer? Tell me how that works
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@ObvsRetardation @steve2bacon Did you even read it? lol
I mean I’m not trying to gloat or anything but I called the bottom *and* when it would sharply rise
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Me: Ya I am a Biotech Investor how did you know?
Also me:
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The main thing is look how much growth came from a market disprution as massive as GLP-1s. That only contributed ~1B to revenue. All their random crap is like ~1.xB after years. You think they're going to find another 3.5B in random generic "peptides"?
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It's pointless but I did it anyway, $HIMS mgmt claims they can have 6B in revenue and $1.3 B in imigainary I mean "adjusted" ebitda by 2030 so I tried to bridge what that would be in real numbers. Wouldn't be horrible but I'd be surprised if they can actually do what they claim
Occam's Retard@ObvsRetardation
One challenge to the "peptides" narrative is they're fighting a kind of reverse selection bias. The Target customer needs to simultaneously have 1) the risk tolerance to inject clinically unvalidated drugs but 2) be risk-averse enough to pay a premium to avoid the gray market
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@bioinvestor24 I guess they are already running that: A Study of Macupatide (LY3532226) and Eloralintide (LY3841136), Alone or in Combination, in Adults With Obesity or Overweight and With Type 2 Diabetes share.google/OPnzjdPDirJYaK…
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@bioinvestor24 Lilly is developing a GIP mono. do you think GIP/amy combo could be viable?
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Perhaps boring u with many analyses but effective amylins beyond $NVO 11% wt loss cagrilintide and $zeal 10% petrelintide are associated with significant toxicity and DC rate.
Look at $LLy Elora alone from Lancet paper. DC rate due to AEs up to 21% in straight doses and 12% in 3-9 mg phase 3 dose. Significant difference 4-5% between efficacy and treatment estimands .. paper in lancet and I shared details before. Clearly double DC rate vs TZP despite market unwarranted confidence in tolerability .. seen that taking a toll in the high DC rate of Elora -TZP combo
While I am bullish on $PFE long term , I am concerned about GLP1 -amylin combo tolerability for later this year. Only small doses are likely combinable .. question how much efficacy they would generate .
Bioinvestor24@bioinvestor24
This analysts / journalists new focus on combinations reminds me of their focus on $PFE failed oral GLP1 .. on top of increased GI symptoms , there is an element of fatigue and “ not feeling good “ when GLP1 combined with amylin. Seen in $NVO CagriSema high percentage of patients not reaching top dose .. and poor tolerability of amycretin .. also high rate of DC seen in $LLy incomplete data disclosure of TZP plus Elona combination. What I want to hear from $VKTX mgt on ER , comments on vanquish phase 3 tolerability ,DC rate and even what they see in efficacy. They don’t have to cite numbers and it will not impact trial progress. @Doctor_Salomon Recall Metsera CEO even exaggerating numbers and didn’t harm VK poor spoken CEO is what is harming company value ( example when he mentioned phase 2B oral while knowing FDA approved phase 3) and they need more money to run more trials. The sector is clear now , strong price stability , high demand , very high cash pay , international growth and other mechanisms disappointing. U only need one excellent GLP1 GIP to succeed ( what’s novo missing ). U don’t need commercial teams when there is Trump Rx and u PR dept is drug performance on social media.
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@DueDoctor @steve2bacon I must be missing the part where you called the bottom. All I see is biotech is cheap and the market is not bottomed (it was bottomed). I told you over the summer that biotech was back in the bull market and you didn't believe me 🤷♂️
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@ObvsRetardation @steve2bacon This is a meme and I literally called the exact bottom
DoctorDueDiligence@DueDoctor
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@DueDoctor @steve2bacon I told you last summer that it was bottomed it's up like 80% since then. just don't buy the top.
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@steve2bacon So you’re telling me I can get the risk of foreign bonds with the returns of American bonds (non inflation adjusted)
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$MEDP conf call bullish commentary from mgmt which is unusual given CEO's constant pessimistic tone. Cancellations down but those have been more narrative than a real driver of their economics. analysts trying to understand metabolic mix effect on burn rate as if that matters 😂
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I made up the term reverse selection bias, that might not be the perfect word but the point is they would be trying to appeal to a customer pool that has already been pre-depleted.
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One challenge to the "peptides" narrative is they're fighting a kind of reverse selection bias. The Target customer needs to simultaneously have 1) the risk tolerance to inject clinically unvalidated drugs but 2) be risk-averse enough to pay a premium to avoid the gray market
Occam's Retard@ObvsRetardation
$Hims "peptides" narrative is just incoherent. They aren't compounding smth like sermorelin, which they could legally do now and be aimed at same crowd with similar economics. same for TRT. but you think if these gray market peptides get ok'd itd be a game changer? ok.
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@Ross__Hendricks How does that look as a percent of their total revenue?
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lifestyle support is just a fancy way to say they give you an app 😂 oh and you can message a doctor who will send you an AI-generated response, after all they did say that's what they're using AI for.
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$HIMS literally telling you that what sets them apart is they charge more than other platforms for access to the same thing 😂 "revolutionizing healthcare" my ass. "ongoing lifestyle support" the whole value prop of these drugs is you don't need intentional lifestyle modification
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@NighthawkTradez the slow grind towards its fair value of zero $hims
x.com/ObvsRetardatio…
Occam's Retard@ObvsRetardation
Long the aug 25p on $HIMS this shitco ran up and banged its head on the avwap from IPO. And it's not gaining on the stupid "peptides" news from the FDA. "When good news can't push the stock higher, sell fast"
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@A_May_MD Well, unfortunately, they will fall. I do not agree that the peptides haven't been researched; after all, manufacturers have laboratories and scientists who know exactly which amino acids are best suited for a blend and carry the lowest risk.
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Med mal lawyers getting ready for all the class action lawsuits over “licensed physicians” prescribing unstudied peptides through compounding pharmacies.
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Julia Belluz@juliaoftoronto
Americans want to inject unproven chemicals. They may soon get their way. An FDA advisory meeting voted to make it easier to access six experimental #peptides. But the meeting was never just about peptides. I wrote about why for @nytopinion nytimes.com/2026/07/25/opi…
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