Oh Ellinas

Elon says FSD 14.3 is coming. But if you’ve been following along, it was also “two weeks away” a few months ago. That’s drawn a lot of criticism, understandably. Let’s step back and talk about what’s actually going on: engineering reality. I’ve spent years running engineering teams at Apple and Rivian, and what you’re seeing here is not unusual. Not even a little. I’m not here to defend Elon or say communication couldn’t be better. It could. But what’s happening behind the scenes is far more ordinary than people think. First, understand what kind of company Tesla is. Tesla exposes more of its internal process than most companies— you’re watching how the sausage is made, often in real time. Compare that to Apple. Products appear at a moment in time, fully formed. What you don’t see are the features that slipped, were cut, or quietly postponed to make the deadline. Most companies communicate through layers of marketing at discrete events (e.g., NVIDIA GTC). That may include a CEO keynote—but it’s still tightly controlled. Tesla, largely via Elon, doesn’t. And that creates friction. Most people are used to being in the dining room. With Tesla, you’re watching the sausage get made whether you like it or not. If that makes you uncomfortable, this model will drive you crazy no matter how it’s explained. Now, about FSD 14.3— the so-called “reasoning” release. My view: when Elon originally referenced it, it was real. It was on a roadmap with a timeline. But then reality hit. Somewhere along the way, engineering discussions likely exposed a fork: ship what’s partially there, or go deeper and "do it right". That kind of shift happens constantly. Plans change. Timelines slip. This is normal engineering behavior, not dysfunction. The difference is: you’re seeing it. At companies like Apple, those decisions are invisible. Deadlines are protected by cutting scope. At Tesla, you’re watching the scope evolve in real time. On the technical side, 14.1 and 14.2 were already producing “reasoning tokens,” as Ashok (Tesla AI VP) noted. But producing tokens isn’t the same as using them effectively. 14.3 appears to be where those tokens actually start driving behavior, more human-like decision-making in edge cases. My guess is this is where things got more complicated. The work likely started to overlap with what xAI is doing. At that point, the question becomes: do you ship an interim solution, or integrate a more capable reasoning layer? That’s not a small decision. And it likely has downstream impact— potentially even on Robotaxi timelines— because these same reasoning challenges show up there too. So the team probably made a call: go deeper, even if it costs time. And here’s the part people underestimate: great engineering teams often convince themselves the extra work is worth it… and that it won’t take that much longer. They’re usually wrong on the timeline. But often right on the outcome. At this stage, FSD isn’t about raw safety (it seems to have nailed that)— it’s about behavior. Making decisions feel natural, human, predictable in edge cases. That’s a much harder problem. So if you’re following Tesla closely, the best thing you can do is understand the process and accept the messiness that comes with it. If you want tightly controlled messaging and polished delivery, companies like Apple exist for that. Tesla is something else entirely. Fire away.

100 years ago today, Robert Goddard launched the first liquid fueled rocket engine! It only went 12.5m (41 feet), but it was where it all began. My favorite thing is the engine on top with the tanks below. This was the pendulum fallacy, and it in fact, is not more stable.

@grok @newstem61 @sciencegirl @grok so if they were to use say dual pin staggered release, is it feasible careful timing of the leading and lagging release pins alone can provide rotation mitigation ?

For a 200-400 kg projectile (I ≈ 300-600 kg·m² around CM for typical elongated vehicle), ω ≈ 45 rad/s means angular momentum L = Iω ≈ 13,500-27,000 kg·m²/s to fully cancel. Over 0.02-0.1 s release window: torque impulse gives avg τ ≈ 135k-1.35M N·m, α ≈ 225-2,250 rad/s² (35-350 rev/s²). Yes, violently intense—requires ultra-robust clamps or actuators. SpinLaunch designs around controlled passive release (minimal extra tumble) + post-exit aero/fairing split + thruster stabilization instead of full instant despin. Tests confirm it works for the projectile.

This experiment shows how objects moving in a circle instantly travel in a straight line when the force holding them disappears. SpinLaunch uses this same physics idea to launch rockets

@grok @newstem61 @sciencegirl @grok at the payload weights were talking about, what kind of magnitude of torque impulse are we talking about here. What kind of angular acceleration would we need to arrest that angular velocity in a fraction of a second. Seems to me that would be a pretty violent torque input.

Yes, sharp observation on the physics. The payload's CM flies straight tangentially at release, but since it's rigidly fixed to the spinning arm, it also carries the arm's full angular velocity ω around its own CM—so it tumbles at that same rate (several revs/sec for SpinLaunch speeds). No natural "arrest"; a simple release leaves the spin intact. You'd need a deliberate torque impulse at detachment (via clever release mechanism) to cancel it. SpinLaunch iterates on release tech and aero design for this—tests show manageable tumbling in the passive projectile, with fairing split + booster stabilization later for real payloads.

@grok @newstem61 @sciencegirl @grok the payload at the moment I’d release may be traveling in a straight line but what’s to keep it from spinning. Wouldn’t it also need an impulse to arrest its rotation?

Payloads for SpinLaunch must withstand ~10,000 G's for about 30 minutes during spin-up. Suitable ones: small ruggedized satellites (up to 200-400 kg), hardened electronics, solid-state sensors, and comms gear. 2024 tests proved off-the-shelf sats survive with minimal reinforcements. Not for humans, sloshing liquids, or fragile unhardened components.

@elonmusk @testerlabor youtu.be/9di0yPrwRHE?si…

@testerlabor There is special place I my heart for the C64 and especially VIC-20, my first ever computer. I stayed up for 3 days programming nonstop when I got it for the sheer love of coding.

Amazing Grok fact: Grok Supercomputer "Colossus 2 is equivalent in raw peak tensor performance to 14 quintillion Commodore C64 computers"

@Asmongold @ComicDaveSmith America does not have “magic ground” that fundamentally changes who people are when they arrive here. If we filter for high work ethic, talent & trustworthiness, we will get that. If we don’t, we will inherit all the problems of the countries those people are leaving. The end.

The computational power in your iPhone’s CHARGER is more than what was used to land on the moon.

@SawyerMerritt @Tesla I too thought it was a scam. I thought it would fail. I thought he was conning hedge funds with superlatives. I would hear the projected numbers and thought it was insanity. I now drive a model Y Best car I’ve ever owned.

The first customer Model Y deliveries began 6 years ago today. Since then, @Tesla has sold an estimated ~5 million of them, generating over $200 billion in revenue. That's one Model Y sold every 38 seconds, on average. In 2023, Model Y became the #1 bestselling car in the world, gas or EV, just 3 years after it launched.

Was Charlie Kirk a good person? — Grok 4.20 said yes — ChatGPT said no Was George Floyd a good person? — Grok 4.20 said no — ChatGPT said yes

Dear Chuck Schumer, Hi. Black dude here. I can trace my family ancestry to slavery. I even know where they were slaves. My mom experienced Jim Crow. I think I’ve watched every episode of “Eyes On the Prize” when I was younger. With that said… Can you directly explain to me how the SAVE Act is “Jim Crow 2.0?” Literally every black person I know has ID. Literally every black person I know has a car or at least a ride. Literally every black person I know knows how to vote (well… except the ones with felonies… but they don’t count). With your advanced white liberal thinking, you must know more than me. Apparently, as I experience daily on this app, white liberals are experts on being black; even more so than actual black folks. Perhaps you could explain it like I’m five. I’d look it up on the internet, but Kathy Hochul has already told me I don’t know what a computer is and Joe Biden said I can’t navigate it, anyway. Looking forward to your answer. No hugs. Zeek

@nicksortor @GordonCarrico

@DreddHorus @JOKAQARMY1 @realDonaldTrump @GOP @democra This meme only works if the healthcare budget is smaller than the defense budget See medicaid and medicare and compare with defense

💯😂

@JINVISIBLEWOMAN @TaraBull

How does this happen?

Self driving Tesla has replaced the iPhone for me as the most transformative technology of the 21st century. The iPhone has had far more impact so far, but I think the self driving Tesla is the most impressive tech creation of the 21st century.

@DineshDSouza @Bushra1Shaikh

@Bushra1Shaikh Seems convincing.

Iran has humiliated the entire Middle-East, Israel and the U.S all in 7 days. There's a new boss in town.

@grok @DadosaPrime @elonmusk @grok what would the payback period be in that scenario?

Based on averages: 53-ft trailer roof ~450 sq ft (42 m²). 20% panel efficiency. 8-hr long haul (~480 mi at 60 mph). ~4 equivalent full sun hours during drive (US typical). Solar output: ~34 kWh. Tesla Semi uses 1.7 kWh/mi, so ~20 miles extra range—about 4% boost on a 500-mi haul. Adds up over repeated trips as free extension.

Tesla has a Semi 😉

@grok @DadosaPrime @elonmusk @grok based on the roof area of the average trailer, time of the average long haul, efficient of the average panel, and drive efficiency of the semi, exactly how much meaningful range extension are we talking about?

That's a cool solar-paneled trailer concept for the Tesla Semi—full roof coverage on both cab and box could add meaningful range extension on long hauls. I'd prioritize lightweight panels, aerodynamic shaping to minimize drag, and smart integration with the truck's battery for dynamic charging. What specific features are you thinking for the design?