Arun

Let me start this post with a clear Disclaimer: Predicting election outcomes is even more imprecise than predicting the weather. I have been lucky in predicting the last several Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections right and am due to get it wrong. Over the last 2 months I have spoken with thousands of people trying to gauge the mood of the electorate and have visited several of the constituencies too. In my analysis I have relied on the 2024 LS elections data rather than the 2021 data as I believe this may reflect the ground situation better. I have given TVK an overall vote share of 20%, (higher in the urban areas and lower in the rural areas) though I am not convinced that is how much vote share they will get overall. I have factored in VIP constituencies, the intra party issues in some seats, the weakness of the alliance partners and a number of other variables. I have made one assumption: The TVK will take more or less equal vote share from both sides though I have geographically segregated this. A slight deviation to either side may not have much of an impact, but a large deviation will change the projections drastically. While doing all this my focus was on seeing if the incumbent party the DMK would be able to hold on or not. The reason is, when there is a third player there is a natural slight edge for the incumbent. When in doubt about a seat I gave it to the DMK alliance. The numbers I arrived at are as follows: 1.DMK Alliance: 100-115 2.AIADMK Alliance: 118-133 3.TVK: 0-3 Could this be totally off the mark? Of course it can. If TVK takes much more of the AIADMK vote then the situation can reverse and the DMK Alliance could secure a majority. Also if AIADMK can hold its dominance in the Kongu belt and if the PMK pulls its weight in the Vanniyar belt and if the allies of the DMK implode (Cong, DMDK, VCK), it could push AIADMK+ higher. For the DMK alliance to win Vijay has to take a lion's share of his votes from the AIADMK alliance and a low proportion of votes from the DMK alliance. My gut feel is that there seems to be a slight edge for the AIADMK alliance. However, I do not see a total sweep for either alliance unless Vijay takes his votes totally from one side and wrecks the other side. I do not know as yet what the Exit Polls are going to say tomorrow. Once I get further inputs will update. PS: The TVK factor has made predicting this election the toughest one in recent times. There is more than a fair chance I could be getting this wrong. #tamilnadulegislativeassemblyelection2026 #TamilNaduElections2026 #TNElections2026 #tnelection

Pushed Claude Opus 4.7 past pre-poll surveys into social sentiment and ground reality for #TNElections2026. Each round of pushback, especially on TVK’s true pull, sharpened the projection. This is what reasoning with AI looks like, not querying it. So here is what it says: Stalin returns. Vijay rewrites the opposition. AIADMK at its weakest since 1989. Disclaimer: Just a model’s read. The voter has the last word on May 4.

Let me start this post with a clear Disclaimer: Predicting election outcomes is even more imprecise than predicting the weather. I have been lucky in predicting the last several Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections right and am due to get it wrong. Over the last 2 months I have spoken with thousands of people trying to gauge the mood of the electorate and have visited several of the constituencies too. In my analysis I have relied on the 2024 LS elections data rather than the 2021 data as I believe this may reflect the ground situation better. I have given TVK an overall vote share of 20%, (higher in the urban areas and lower in the rural areas) though I am not convinced that is how much vote share they will get overall. I have factored in VIP constituencies, the intra party issues in some seats, the weakness of the alliance partners and a number of other variables. I have made one assumption: The TVK will take more or less equal vote share from both sides though I have geographically segregated this. A slight deviation to either side may not have much of an impact, but a large deviation will change the projections drastically. While doing all this my focus was on seeing if the incumbent party the DMK would be able to hold on or not. The reason is, when there is a third player there is a natural slight edge for the incumbent. When in doubt about a seat I gave it to the DMK alliance. The numbers I arrived at are as follows: 1.DMK Alliance: 100-115 2.AIADMK Alliance: 118-133 3.TVK: 0-3 Could this be totally off the mark? Of course it can. If TVK takes much more of the AIADMK vote then the situation can reverse and the DMK Alliance could secure a majority. Also if AIADMK can hold its dominance in the Kongu belt and if the PMK pulls its weight in the Vanniyar belt and if the allies of the DMK implode (Cong, DMDK, VCK), it could push AIADMK+ higher. For the DMK alliance to win Vijay has to take a lion's share of his votes from the AIADMK alliance and a low proportion of votes from the DMK alliance. My gut feel is that there seems to be a slight edge for the AIADMK alliance. However, I do not see a total sweep for either alliance unless Vijay takes his votes totally from one side and wrecks the other side. I do not know as yet what the Exit Polls are going to say tomorrow. Once I get further inputs will update. PS: The TVK factor has made predicting this election the toughest one in recent times. There is more than a fair chance I could be getting this wrong. #tamilnadulegislativeassemblyelection2026 #TamilNaduElections2026 #TNElections2026 #tnelection

#TheNumatrix | The TVK’s impact could be more significant in rural areas where it may eat into AIADMK’s vote base, while in urban constituencies the DMK’s position is likely to remain relatively stable with less dramatic disruption: @sumanthraman, Political Analyst @politicalbaaba, Founder, Votevibe explains how crucial is TVK’s entry, and how could it reshape vote shares and disrupt the existing political equations @AnchorAnandN and @RShivshankar decode #TamilNaduElections

Seems like @TVKVijayHQ is gaining a good vote share in seats where alliance partners of both #DMK and #AIADMK are contesting. Swing voters, and even a section of core voters from the main Dravidian parties, appear to have shifted towards #TVK‌ in such constituencies. However, the key question remains: - Can TVK convert this vote share into actual wins by securing 35% vote share, or - Will it end up indirectly benefiting the main Dravidian party contesting on its own symbol ? This will largely depend on: - Strength of the local candidate - Support from the parent Dravidian party machinery - Money power and last-minute poll management This has happened largely in North, west and central zone seats. #TamilnaduLegislativeAssemblyelection2026

திண்டுக்கல்: கொடைக்கானலில் தங்கியுள்ள முதல்வர் மு.க.ஸ்டாலின், ஏரி சுற்றுச்சாலையில் நடைபயிற்சி மேற்கொண்ட பின் சைக்கிளில் உலா வந்தார் #Kodaikanal | #MKStalin