MapleBarrelAlpha

My $CVE cheat sheet for 2Q26 earnings tomorrow. I always like to compare these to actuals right after the earnings release hits

The oil manipulators do two things reliably: (1) slam into the Friday close and (2) bang on the Monday open. That way they set the tone for the week. Is Hormuz open? No. Were ships attacked this weekend? Yes. This is absolutely going to backfire in a big way on you and me.

Canada’s oil should be used as a carrot, not a stick, in trade negotiations. We would never cut off flows to USA for the following reasons: 1. We have nowhere to store it and nowhere else to ship it (bc of lack of pipelines). So we would just have to stop production, losing revenues, royalties and taxes, and probably damage wells. It would be as economically painful for us as for them. 2. There are already three global oil crises happening right now (Hormuz, Russia and Bab el-Mandab). Curtailing millions of barrels of Canadian crude would compound that and be very bad for everyone that uses oil, ie. everyone in the world. 3. This is a geopolitical moment for Canada to lean into its reliability and trustworthiness as a trade partner, and we will reap rewards from that reputation. Weaponizing our oil and minerals - as our adversaries do - would have all sorts of negative repercussions for future trade. Even floating it creates risk. That’s why Smith and Moe kiboshed it immediately. 4. Cutting off oil is about 1000x more serious than taking booze off of shelves. Right now Canada has the moral high ground in this dispute. Cut off energy (and fertilizer) and all the good will we have earned from the majority of Americans would evaporate.