PanDrak
14 posts
Micron is the headliner for most American investors but you are by far not bullish enough on Samsung. SK and Samsung outweigh micron by magnitude in my personal portfolio. $MU $SKHY $005930.KS
Jukan@jukan05
“Nvidia’s CMX is equipped with 576 SSDs, providing a total storage capacity of 9,600 TB. Industry estimates suggest that NAND demand for CMX will surge from 35 million TB this year to more than 100 million TB next year.” Nvidia’s Rubin CMX will quite literally soak up NAND supply like a sponge absorbs water. To put 100 million TB into perspective, it is roughly equivalent to adding another Apple-sized source of demand to the NAND market.
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Why are semiconductor stocks falling, and when will this correction end (if it ends at all)?
Both were called in Stratosphere on July 2.
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Denistratos@Denistratos
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@RiversSmith3 Bro I just came out from surgery, unfortunately I'm not able to listen to $AEHR earnings call while bleeding out thx.
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$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings!
2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer).
Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M.
- Lead AI processor wafer-level burn-in customer is significantly ramping their products.
- Engaged with additional AI processor customers who are evaluating wafer-level burn-in.
- Benchmark customer, which was a “major supplier of AI accelerators, CPUs and network processors” “exceeded their expectations.
From management: The potential revenue opportunity from one of these devices is "significant to Aehr". So another benchmark win for potential HVM in the future.
- Wafer level burn-in benchmark with a "global leader in NAND flash completed". Now evaluating a development agreement for HBM/NAND
Seems like $SNDK since there was HBF related discussions from last quarter I think.
- "Our package level burn-in business for AI processors also gained momentum over the year … from our lead hyperscale customer for Sonoma systems"
- Silicon photonics customer already ramping, newer networking customers has forecast additional systems
Basically the amount of global semi companies that map to $AEHR is pretty ridiculous across silicon photonics, memory, AI processors, and others.
I don’t quite think that $130-$150m guidance is representative of actualized revenue for 2027 if these hyperscalers/semi companies convert to HVM.
Typically with these types of qualification into HVM players, markets don’t really judge it by current quarter, but what’s to come.
And it looks very positive so far in terms of reactions...
$116 -> $60 -> $94 all in the span of a month is pretty insane volatility tho, so good to know what you're holding.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.
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Anyone have defensive stocks under their radar? Stocks that tend to do well when semis sell off?
Industrials? Healthcare?
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PanDrak retweetledi
$SIVE 03.07.2026
BULLISH BALANCE SHEET MOVE
Bootstrap converts the full $12M convertible loan into equity 🚀
✅ $12M debt removed
✅ 10.85% interest burden eliminated
✅ No repayment pressure until 2029
✅ Stronger balance sheet
✅ Lower refinancing risk
It is a major debt-to-equity clean-up that strengthens Sivers ahead of its next growth phase.
Less debt. Lower interest. More financial flexibility.
Very bullish for the long-term $SIVE story 📈
sivers-semiconductors.com/press/sivers-s…
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@PepInvestStocks And closing around 63.70 SEK would be a strong signal, let’s see🤞
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$SIVE has unlocked a massive growth catalyst by expanding its oversubscribed directed share issue to SEK 700 million (~$73M USD) due to exceptional institutional demand.
This capital injection completely de-risks the company's balance sheet, funding the critical high-volume manufacturing phase for its next-generation InP lasers, SATCOM, and defense tech.
Backed by a rapidly expanding $800 million opportunity pipeline and under the strong guidance of CEO Vickram Vathulya, $SIVE is now fully funded to accelerate its fab-light model and seamlessly convert its massive backlog into soaring revenues for 2026 and 2027.
Anders Storm@StormDirac
Great news with a Direct share issue that was oversubscribed multiple time. What started as a planned SEK 600M (+$61m) raise was upsized to SEK 700M ($73m) thanks to strong institutional investor demand. That's a clear vote of confidence in $SIVE and the ramping within AI photonics, SATCOM and defense. SEK 700M is roughly US$73M in fresh capital, providing even greater financial flexibility to accelerate execution and scale the business. Strong demand. Strong balance sheet. Exciting times ahead. Great work by the Sivers team! Congratulations! $SIVE #AI #Photonics sivers-semiconductors.com/press/sivers-s…
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PanDrak retweetledi
Sivers $SIVE upgrades US listing plan from evaluation to execution
Market is missing this big news
$SIVE NASDAQ US listing is expected in late 2026 to early 2027
TopInvestor@Matrix_B0SS
Very bullish news for $SIVE , issue set price at 57 SEK oversubscribed multiple times means more demand than supply wow Strategy to expand business, CEO said they intent to complete the US listing process in next quarters SIVE to 150 - 200 SEK soon 500 SEK by eo 2026
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PanDrak retweetledi
Great news with a Direct share issue that was oversubscribed multiple time.
What started as a planned SEK 600M (+$61m) raise was upsized to SEK 700M ($73m) thanks to strong institutional investor demand. That's a clear vote of confidence in $SIVE and the ramping within AI photonics, SATCOM and defense.
SEK 700M is roughly US$73M in fresh capital, providing even greater financial flexibility to accelerate execution and scale the business.
Strong demand. Strong balance sheet. Exciting times ahead.
Great work by the Sivers team! Congratulations!
$SIVE #AI #Photonics
sivers-semiconductors.com/press/sivers-s…
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PanDrak retweetledi
Power is one of the biggest design challenges in #mmWave systems. As bandwidth demands increase, so do power consumption and thermal constraints.
At Sivers Semiconductors, we're addressing these challenges through advanced beamforming, highly integrated RF architectures, and optimized antenna designs, helping customers deliver higher performance with lower power consumption.
Learn more: sivers-semiconductors.com/wireless
#mmWave #RF #Wireless #Semiconductors #Beamforming
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@aleabitoreddit Thanks as always for your excellent notes!! What are the most compelling Robotic companies you are currently viewing?
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$GM cuts 1,000 workers and replaces them with 50 robots (Jun 22nd report)
Reports also show GM is working on a deal with $NVDA on factory robotics.
This is industry validation for robotics, since it likely demonstrates increased opex margins + efficiency from employee automation.
Especially from companies like $AMZN to General Motors with assembly/warehouse lines that have high headcount.
I think the technology is already here and use cases are already proven. Robotics/Humanoids are just pre-scale right now.
The wording from large companies is “assistive robotics”… But in all honesty, it’s here to automate away the human workforce and increase profitability.
I don’t think companies want to be paying insurance, salaries, etc. when robots can do a better job, and 24/7, so very sad to see potential job losses in the future from robotics automation.
Whether people like it or not; seems like the inflection point for robotics is here.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Robotics is next. Both deal count and investment amounts are skyrocketing per pitchbook March data (source: a16z) Good thing is: the same AI DC exposure often has cross-exposure to humanoid ramp. Like DRAM/NAND with memory (on humanoid inference/storage) or DFB lasers with photonics (FMCW LiDAR vision/sensing). Right now most exposure is upstream component parts… or programs within large players like $AMZN or $TSLA. So global IPO season H2 into 2027 for pure play humanoids/robotics companies is going to be fun.
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伴随着今天 $sive继续的下跌，质疑声和看空的声音也越来越多，那我们往回看 $sive到底能不能支持现在的股价：
1. 技术层面上：稀缺的独立ELS供应商
InP DFB激光阵列是CPO架构外部光源（ELS）环节的核心器件，Sivers是少数具备量产能力的独立供应商，不依附于英伟达供应链
在当下 $LITE 和 $COHR 产能被锁定的背景下，超大规模云厂商有强烈的多元化供应商动机
技术路线覆盖800G+可插拔光模块和未来CPO/NPO两条并行赛道，不押单一技术路径
Jabil、O-Net、Enablence的合作从侧面验证技术认可度，CEO原话：AI数据中心光网络需求-供给存在多年结构性失衡
在无线方面和 all.space 合作，并且美国国防部也长期有合作关系。
2. 合作伙伴以及客户：多条产品线同步进行
GlobalFoundries ：最新的合作以及是目前最具战略意义的合作。Sivers的激光阵列已整合进GF的SCALE™ CPO平台，双方共同瞄准AI数据中心互联市场，技术整合验证完成，这是Sivers技术被顶级晶圆代工厂背书的直接证明，这意味着后续大批量的客户会省去验证的时间。
Jabil 方面：1.6T LRO合作将Sivers直接绑定进超高速光互联的量产链条，Jabil作为全球顶级EMS厂商的选择本身就是技术背书。
汽车LiDAR客户：这方面也已签订多平台协议，生命周期收入潜力在$53M至$138M之间，覆盖乘用车、商业车队和工业机器人三个场景，预计Q4 2026开始量产爬坡。
ALL.SPACE被York Space收购后：新的生产订单即将落地，预计2027年进入爬坡阶段，这一部分也能更直接和美国国防部有着联系。
Tachyon Networks FWA方面：28GHz产品已完成爬坡，新增60GHz双产品线并行，两条产品线均预计在2027年进入产能爬坡，同时Tier-1电信运营商的FWA项目预计2026年底启动。
国防端：我们也一直在以及这一部分，EW Star项目获得CHIPS Act资金续约确认，Q1/Q2因美国政府关门推迟的国防收入已明确将在H2 2026回补，全年增长计划不变。
O-Net与Enablence ：联合开发面向AI数据中心和HPC系统的外部光源模块，这是Sivers在ELS赛道上的又一个生态位锁定。
Ayar Labs ：他们的合作持续推进，进一步巩固Sivers在CPO生态中的上游位置。
LioniX International ：合作聚焦激光技术联合开发，强化技术储备。
所以，我们总的来看会发现，Jabil、O-Net、Enablence、GlobalFoundries的同步布局，从多个维度交叉验证了Sivers InP DFB激光阵列的技术认可度。CEO也明确表态：AI数据中心光网络需求与供给之间存在多年结构性失衡，而Sivers在800G+可插拔和CPO/NPO两条路上均有布局，不押单一技术路径，另外在无线领域，sive也能拿下订单虽然增长潜力不及光学方面，但也不可忽略。
3. 潜在合作对象
$NVDA ：我们需要注意LiDAR客户有可能是Aeva Technologies，而Aeva已被选入英伟达DRIVE Hyperion自动驾驶参考平台，目标2028年量产 ，这意味着Sivers的激光器有可能通过Aeva间接进入英伟达生态。
$amd： AMD是OCI联盟（Open Compute Initiative）成员之一，联盟成员还包括Broadcom、Meta、微软、英伟达，该联盟持续推动CPO标准化。Sivers同时布局OCI生态和Marvell生态。 AMD既是Ayar Labs的背书方，也是CPO需求的终端推动者，与Sivers存在间接但清晰的供应链关联。
$NOK ：伴随着芬兰地区营收暴涨，我们有理由怀疑诺基亚和 sive存在合作关系，再加上Sivers与一家Tier-1欧洲电信OEM有持续合作，业界普遍认为就是诺基亚，双方合作开发5G毫米波波束成形收发器，目前第三代产品正在联合研发，GlobalFoundries 22FDX制程。 诺基亚的Daybreak FR3波束成形器同时开辟了进入6G前传市场的路径。 诺基亚是目前确认度最高的潜在大客户之一，只是双方都未公开点名。
$MRVL ：Marvell以32.5亿美元收购Celestial AI，直接验证了光子互联赛道的价值，而Sivers通过POET Technologies的合作已进入Marvell/Celestial AI生态，在CPO路线上形成布局。
$AAPL ： Sivers官方披露了一个”未具名Fortune 100可穿戴客户”，初始合同130万美元，全面量产后年需求超过数百万颗芯片。符合这三个条件——Fortune 100、可穿戴、年需求数百万颗——的公司，苹果几乎是唯一选项。苹果的供应商保密文化也与Sivers”未具名”的披露方式高度吻合。
4. 资本市场结构：系统的重新定义
指数纳入双催化：MSCI指数和OMX Stockholm Benchmark指数纳入
期权市场开放：
纳斯达克6月29日启动标准化期权/期货，7月6日正式交易
大量机构基金因无衍生品市场而被排除在外，这一壁垒正式消除，Delta对冲需求将产生间接购股压力
三份2X做多ETF同期申请：
T-REX 2X Long SIVE（5月8日）：与三星、软银、任天堂同批，清一色”即将美国化”海外标的，SIVE排名第一
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SIVEF（4月10日）：等待期最短，最快月底可获批
Leverage Shares 2X Long Sivers（5月26日）：三份均为纯做多，无对应空头产品，做市商delta对冲需求将产生≥2倍间接购股压力
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