Denistratos

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Denistratos

Denistratos

@Denistratos

@MIT Grad | Hedge Fund CIO & Head PM | Abu Dhabi | 44.7% 7-year CAGR | Probability-based | Objective TA | Live Portfolio Access → @StratosphereBot

Katılım Kasım 2023
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Denistratos
Denistratos@Denistratos·
Comments under my posts will be closed starting Monday, April 27. Need more details? See the “Official notice” post. In this post, you’ll find answers to most questions about my strategy and tactics in the stock market – how I think and how I trade. It’s a curated collection of posts I’ve shared over the past year on @X. You can also ask any questions under this post – about the stock market, if the answers aren’t covered in the posts below or anything else if you’re interested. I’ll try to answer all questions submitted before Sunday midnight. You can follow my trading in real time on weekdays via the Stratosphere service. My approach and how I read the market – in the private Telegram channel. Until May 20, only a simplified teaser version is available. Realized profit screenshots in Highlights. Always there. I know many of you haven’t used crypto payments before and some have had trouble joining the private Telegram channel. I operate on the assumption that there are no unsolvable problems – only situations that require more effort. Fortunately, we all have access to tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, etc. I’m confident that anyone who wants to can find at least a few simple solutions. My team is also always available to help via DM at @StratosphereBot. 🟢 Must reads 🔵 Good to know THE BASIS OF MY STRATEGY 🟢 A Sniper Approach: How I Actually Make Money x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Deliberate Aggression → Absolute Control x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 How I differ from 99.99% of traders x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 How I structure my portfolio x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Predict Indicator: Red or Green Days Ahead x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 My Trading Evolution: From Imitation to Independence x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Why I Trade Only the U.S. Market x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Why I Don’t Hedge (and Stanley Druckenmiller too) x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Why I Rarely Use Short Positions x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Answers to questions about my trading strategy. Part one x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Answers to questions about my trading strategy. Part two x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Important note x.com/denistratos/st… WHY I TRACK TRADING ALGOS 🟢 Power, Media, Money: Algos Against You x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Brokers in suits are out – AI runs Wall Street now x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 News and “accidents”… not so accidental after all? x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Jeffrey Epstein on Wall Street x.com/denistratos/st… WALL STREET: BRUTAL REALITY 🟢 All you need to know about Wall Street hedge funds. Q4 2025 x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Mutual & Hedge Funds: 2025 Disaster, Déjà Vu x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 All you need to know about Wall Street hedge funds. Q3 2025 x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 All you need to know about Wall Street hedge funds. Q2 2025 x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Everything You Need to Know About U.S. Hedge Funds – in a Single Brutal Chart. Q1 2025 x.com/denistratos/st… WHY I THINK WE’RE MORE LIKELY HEADING FOR THE COLLAPSE OF THE AI BUBBLE 🟢 The collapse of the AI bubble. Part one SPX/M2SL x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 The collapse of the AI bubble. Part two SPX/M2SL x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 The collapse of the AI bubble. Part three QQQ/M2SL x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 $MSTR: SEC, fraud, crash -62% in one day x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 IMF in panic? Reading between the lines x.com/denistratos/st… Continued ↓
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Denistratos@Denistratos

A SNIPER APPROACH: HOW I ACTUALLY MAKE MONEY IN THE MARKET Over the first four days of this week, I’m up 23%. That already far exceeds the S&P 500’s average annual return over the past 25 years – and is likely enough to outperform its full 2026 result. The specifics of my trading system are simple: I generate ~95% of my annual profit within two to four months each year. It’s basically a sniper approach. Long stretches of waiting and patience… then one precise shot. The rest of the time, I stay in cash and take light 3-5% positions, one after another – once the previous trade moves into profit and a breakeven stop is set. I then get stopped out at breakeven or with a small profit or loss. My task is simple – find the trend and make money on it. The rest is routine work, with no need for constant trading. If someone thinks you need to trade every day to make good money, that’s a serious misconception. At the same time, it’s important to understand: I mainly trade indices, sectors and megacaps. Sometimes I add big caps. I don’t need excessive volatility – it’s the second enemy after the constant urge to trade / FOMO. And then everything is simple: Want 1:1 index exposure? Buy $SPY. You’ll already outperform the index over time – with better drawdown recovery and higher Sortino and Sharpe ratios. Want 2x? $SPUU, $SSO. 3x? $SPXL, $UPRO. 5-10x? Options on $SPY. 20x? Options on $SPUU, $SSO. 30x? Options on $SPXL, $UPRO. 50-100-500-1000x? Options (which I won’t specify). Everything depends on your choice and risk tolerance. There’s no need to trade random junk, gamble on earnings or try to predict one-off events. The edge is in working with the trend – not the noise. If everything is so simple, why is my 7-year CAGR only a “miserable” 44.7%? And why was last year “only” 70% in my public portfolio? Simple – that’s enough for me. That’s my risk profile. I make money while staying comfortable. Every year. I don’t waste time watching who made 1000% last year, or who went from $10k to $300k… and back to $10k. You can fool others. You can fool yourself. But you can’t fool math or probability.

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Denistratos@Denistratos·
Now absolutely obvious that in today’s “lottery” the right trade was a pair: long $GOOGL + short $META 😉
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
Half a year on @X. Time to sum up and get acquainted. I’m Denistratos, Greek, MIT grad, 44, with 21 years in the markets. Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager on Wall Street, managing $1B+. $873k in profits since June in the public portfolio – tracked live (screenshots in Highlights) from open to close of trades. No subscriptions, no payments, no outside services. Full transparency. Why manage a public portfolio? Words mean nothing. A system’s effectiveness is proven only by results. For 7 years, I’ve traded a system inspired by Jim Simons / Medallion Fund / Renaissance Technologies. Every year in profit. Outperforming #SPX by 30-100%+, while beating it on Max Drawdown, Sharpe, and Sortino Ratios. Posts worth reading to understand my philosophy: 🟢 Priority reads 🔵 Secondary reads WHY I THINK WE’RE MORE LIKELY HEADING FOR THE COLLAPSE OF THE AI BUBBLE 🟢 The collapse of the AI bubble. Part one x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 The collapse of the AI bubble. Part two x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 The AI bubble – or how the market is losing its mind in real time x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 Oracle: record AI-cloud growth with margins lower than retail x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 The AI bubble just closed the loop x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 MSTR: SEC, fraud, crash -62% in one day x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 IMF in panic? Reading between the lines x.com/sojustfollowme… WHY I DON’T USE FA & TA 🟢 What you really need to know about FA if you follow me x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 Fibonacci, Elliott, and Patterns: A Beautiful Lie That’s Easy to Believe In x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 Q&A. Part one x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 Q&A. Part two x.com/sojustfollowme… THE BASIS OF MY STRATEGY AND WHY I TRACK TRADING ALGORITHMS 🟢 Brokers in suits are out – AI runs Wall Street now x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 How I structure my portfolio x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 Answers to questions about my trading strategy. Part one x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 Answers to questions about my trading strategy. Part two x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 My actions and attitude during market stress (on the example of Oct 10, 2025) x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 My actions and attitude during market stress. Lessons from volatility x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 What to check before you buy – Common Sense x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 What to check before you buy – Greed & Stupidity x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 Terminator 2: Judgment Day Lessons for Traders x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 Price pinning x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 Market Algorithms: Which Timeframes? x.com/sojustfollowme… WALL STREET: BRUTAL REALITY 🟢 All you need to know about Wall Street hedge funds. Q2 2025 x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 Everything You Need to Know About U.S. Hedge Funds – in a Single Brutal Chart. Q1 2025 x.com/sojustfollowme… WHY I DON’T CONSIDER LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS 🔵 Investing in blue-chip stocks and long-term holding – what’s the catch x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 Long-term stock holding? x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 WHY I DON’T CONSIDER DAY TRADING x.com/sojustfollowme… WHY I DON’T TRADE CHINESE STOCKS 🟢 Variable Interest Entities x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 Real GDP & Equity Index x.com/sojustfollowme… WHY MY CRYPTO ALLOCATION NEVER EXCEEDS 2% 🔵 Planned crypto crash? x.com/sojustfollowme… 🔵 Crypto selloff. What was that? x.com/sojustfollowme… 🟢 THINK I’M WRONG? ITCHING TO PROVE IT? DON’T RUSH – WORDS MEAN NOTHING. PROVE IT → $25k FOR 36 MONTHS x.com/sojustfollowme… I make money. No portfolio full of losers. No averaging down. No sitting through losses. No FOMO, no greed, no fear of cutting losses, and none of that “conviction” that clouds judgment and forces self-justification. Read. Think. Decide for yourself. Facts over opinions.
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
@fabrisiq @JuanCar40406185 I’ve read Taleb - Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game. Great author, no doubt. But frankly, a pretty poor money manager if you look at his track record.
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
Thank you for your words, Enrico: I have shared, I share and I will continue to share educational content here. It will just be without feedback from now on. I cannot give an answer as to which one will suit you better, but I can explain the nuances and you will have to make the decision yourself. First. For investing for 10 years, neither of the services will suit you. Firstly, I consider long-term investing a dangerous activity with uncontrollable risks and I have proven this many times in my posts (take a look at the section WHY I DON’T CONSIDER LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS in that post). Secondly, I trade swing. And I never know in advance how long it will last. Historically, these were periods from two months to one and a half years (one time in my practice). To summarize - my task is to make money, fix the profit and wait out the following correction/bear market in cash, opening light positions. And so on until the next swing. Second. The service that is available now - shows how I manage a hedge fund portfolio and my personal portfolio on a daily basis. With limited drawdown and historically annual returns exceeding #SPY. The service that we are thinking to launch next year - is a service with an extremely aggressive strategy, rare trades, potentially high drawdown and potentially high returns. The goal of this service is to show that high returns in the market for a professional is a matter of desire, not opportunity. I myself will trade this strategy only in the service. And I will never apply it in my personal portfolio - it does not fit my risk profile or the hedge fund. As one of the subscribers recently wrote: I will gladly participate in the second service using profits from the first. I agree with this approach.
enrico burzigotti@enricoburz35673

@Denistratos Thank you for all you have shared during past months here on X. A last question that Is not completly clear to me if you can answer: for ants like me with 25k to 50k to keep invested for 10 years what srtatosphere service fit better the already existing or the new One next year?

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Juan Carlos Hernández Marín
Juan Carlos Hernández Marín@JuanCar40406185·
@Denistratos Thanks for the honesty and clarity, powerful perspective. Markets can look catastrophic on charts, but the real world keeps moving. Capital protection first, always. Wishing you an amazing year ahead in your new life project in the UAE.
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
I only partially lived through the “lost decade” in the market - I started my professional path in May 2004, while the crash that began in September 2000 had already ended by late 2002 / early 2003. And from that point, a strong bull market started, which lasted until October 2007. So most of what I know comes from analyzing what happened and why it happened, as well as from backtesting my own trading system. The collapse from October 2007 to March 2009 was brutal - many who looked like heroes turned out to be empty, mumbling some ridiculous excuses and explanations. As for me - let’s be honest - I didn’t have the experience to properly understand what was happening around me.
I probably overestimate and still overestimate, what happened back then - but the human brain is selective, and I don’t think I can be fully objective about it. If it feels like it was a catastrophe, like some kind of post-apocalyptic world - it wasn’t. Life kept going. People went to work, built families, had kids… restaurants were full. A simple, intuitive example - oil.
During the 2008 crisis, oil prices collapsed from $150 to $35, but global demand fell by only about 1%.
During the severe recession of 1980-82, average annual global demand declined by around 3.5%.
At the peak of the COVID shock, when the world basically stopped, demand fell by about 9-10%. What’s the point? The world keeps moving forward no matter what. And often what looks like a catastrophe on a chart of a specific industry isn’t nearly as dramatic in the bigger picture. What would I do in a new lost decade? The same thing I do now.
Make money in the market with capital protection as the first priority. No emotions.
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Juan Carlos Hernández Marín
Juan Carlos Hernández Marín@JuanCar40406185·
@Denistratos Dear Denistratos, before closing comments, I have always been curious about the lost decade in the market. How was your strategy? How did you feel at that time? How did people handle that? It would be great to know how a person with your knowledge would handle a new lost decade.
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
I don’t think so. We live in a cyclical world and right now it’s a cycle where idiots, chosen by other idiots are doing outrageously absurd things - dragging those who chose them into horror. This cycle has different heroes - the kind they make movies about: • @michaeljburry - who got lucky once in his life and not a single one of his forecasts/trades since has played out • @TheRoaringKitty - whose trade worked once, and he was turned into a hero, even though he had nothing to do with what actually happened - Wall Street simply covered up its scheme with this guy and managed to wipe out millions of similar accounts • @wolfofwallst - and his “success” in manipulating cheap stocks I think the time will come soon and they’ll make a movie about Warren Buffett - an old corrupt figure - while leaving out how he actually made his fortune (I won’t write about it - all four times I got blocked on @X were when I talked about him), who for the past 25 years has publicly shown complete inconsistency in the stock market… yet continues to have an incredibly large base of aggressive fans who lack even basic critical thinking skills. Jim Rogers is not a hero of this cycle. Most people have never even heard of him.
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Andreas Karachristos
@Denistratos yes it would . I prefer an aggressive mid-range strategy (such as leaps) and would be ok to wait months or longer.
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
My team and I are discussing adding a second portfolio to the Stratosphere service next year with a highly aggressive strategy – something like “from $25/50/100k to $1m (into the Stratosphere 😜)”. Access to the second portfolio will be offered as an additional subscription. For existing Stratosphere Live Portfolio Access subscribers, it will be available at a 25% discount. If you follow both portfolios, you will effectively be paying for two subscriptions, with the second one discounted. If you choose only one, nothing changes – standard subscription terms apply. What do you think about adding a second, more aggressive portfolio as an add-on subscription?
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
About a $3m fine for misleading marketing regarding claims about trading profitability and performance. I’m informed at a fairly surface level, but if I’m not mistaken, the point is that he has been making money and continues to make money, while his subscribers blow up their accounts, since it seems his approach is highly dependent on personal execution.
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
I’ll try to answer in a generalized and short way. With O’Neil it’s not that simple, but let’s put it this way. Have you noticed that none of the first three, including Livermore and Minervini, gave stable year-to-year results? I can assume that each of them wasn’t flexible and had a strategy that works only in certain market conditions. Is that good or bad? Everyone decides that themselves. But in my view it’s better to make 50% every year for five years in a row (don’t forget the compounding effect), than to make 100%/150%/200% once in five years. About Qullamagi. I don’t know much about him, since I first heard about him about half a year ago on @X. I can say and based on the fact that he still doesn’t manage a large fund, that his strategy either carries excessive risk, doesn’t scale or it’s survivorship bias, or built on personal intuition. Read the story of Ross Cameron.
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Re8uZ
Re8uZ@Re8uZ·
@Denistratos I never asked you what are your thoughts about Livermore, O'Neil, Minervini, Qullamagi momentum trading strategies??
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
This is a very complex and multidimensional question and it is probably close to impossible to discuss it in isolation from the entire portfolio. But, to answer in broad strokes, especially for a beginner - an option is just a tool. I never build my strategy around options themselves (unless we are talking about option spreads, but that is a completely different topic and they will not be included in the service this year). The strategy is always built solely around the stock or ETF.
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Juan Carlos Hernández Marín
Juan Carlos Hernández Marín@JuanCar40406185·
@Denistratos Quick question from a beginner in options: How do you manage risk and allocation when trading options, on the premium paid? A short explanation of your approach could be really valuable for some of us learning about this.
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
Comments under my posts will be closed starting Monday, April 27. Need more details? See the “Official notice” post. In this post, you’ll find answers to most questions about my strategy and tactics in the stock market – how I think and how I trade. It’s a curated collection of posts I’ve shared over the past year on @X. You can also ask any questions under this post – about the stock market, if the answers aren’t covered in the posts below or anything else if you’re interested. I’ll try to answer all questions submitted before Sunday midnight. You can follow my trading in real time on weekdays via the Stratosphere service. My approach and how I read the market – in the private Telegram channel. Until May 20, only a simplified teaser version is available. Realized profit screenshots in Highlights. Always there. I know many of you haven’t used crypto payments before and some have had trouble joining the private Telegram channel. I operate on the assumption that there are no unsolvable problems – only situations that require more effort. Fortunately, we all have access to tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, etc. I’m confident that anyone who wants to can find at least a few simple solutions. My team is also always available to help via DM at @StratosphereBot. 🟢 Must reads 🔵 Good to know THE BASIS OF MY STRATEGY 🟢 A Sniper Approach: How I Actually Make Money x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Deliberate Aggression → Absolute Control x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 How I differ from 99.99% of traders x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 How I structure my portfolio x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Predict Indicator: Red or Green Days Ahead x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 My Trading Evolution: From Imitation to Independence x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Why I Trade Only the U.S. Market x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Why I Don’t Hedge (and Stanley Druckenmiller too) x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Why I Rarely Use Short Positions x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Answers to questions about my trading strategy. Part one x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Answers to questions about my trading strategy. Part two x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Important note x.com/denistratos/st… WHY I TRACK TRADING ALGOS 🟢 Power, Media, Money: Algos Against You x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Brokers in suits are out – AI runs Wall Street now x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 News and “accidents”… not so accidental after all? x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Jeffrey Epstein on Wall Street x.com/denistratos/st… WALL STREET: BRUTAL REALITY 🟢 All you need to know about Wall Street hedge funds. Q4 2025 x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Mutual & Hedge Funds: 2025 Disaster, Déjà Vu x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 All you need to know about Wall Street hedge funds. Q3 2025 x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 All you need to know about Wall Street hedge funds. Q2 2025 x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 Everything You Need to Know About U.S. Hedge Funds – in a Single Brutal Chart. Q1 2025 x.com/denistratos/st… WHY I THINK WE’RE MORE LIKELY HEADING FOR THE COLLAPSE OF THE AI BUBBLE 🟢 The collapse of the AI bubble. Part one SPX/M2SL x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 The collapse of the AI bubble. Part two SPX/M2SL x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 The collapse of the AI bubble. Part three QQQ/M2SL x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 $MSTR: SEC, fraud, crash -62% in one day x.com/denistratos/st… 🟢 IMF in panic? Reading between the lines x.com/denistratos/st… Continued ↓
Denistratos tweet media
Denistratos@Denistratos

A SNIPER APPROACH: HOW I ACTUALLY MAKE MONEY IN THE MARKET Over the first four days of this week, I’m up 23%. That already far exceeds the S&P 500’s average annual return over the past 25 years – and is likely enough to outperform its full 2026 result. The specifics of my trading system are simple: I generate ~95% of my annual profit within two to four months each year. It’s basically a sniper approach. Long stretches of waiting and patience… then one precise shot. The rest of the time, I stay in cash and take light 3-5% positions, one after another – once the previous trade moves into profit and a breakeven stop is set. I then get stopped out at breakeven or with a small profit or loss. My task is simple – find the trend and make money on it. The rest is routine work, with no need for constant trading. If someone thinks you need to trade every day to make good money, that’s a serious misconception. At the same time, it’s important to understand: I mainly trade indices, sectors and megacaps. Sometimes I add big caps. I don’t need excessive volatility – it’s the second enemy after the constant urge to trade / FOMO. And then everything is simple: Want 1:1 index exposure? Buy $SPY. You’ll already outperform the index over time – with better drawdown recovery and higher Sortino and Sharpe ratios. Want 2x? $SPUU, $SSO. 3x? $SPXL, $UPRO. 5-10x? Options on $SPY. 20x? Options on $SPUU, $SSO. 30x? Options on $SPXL, $UPRO. 50-100-500-1000x? Options (which I won’t specify). Everything depends on your choice and risk tolerance. There’s no need to trade random junk, gamble on earnings or try to predict one-off events. The edge is in working with the trend – not the noise. If everything is so simple, why is my 7-year CAGR only a “miserable” 44.7%? And why was last year “only” 70% in my public portfolio? Simple – that’s enough for me. That’s my risk profile. I make money while staying comfortable. Every year. I don’t waste time watching who made 1000% last year, or who went from $10k to $300k… and back to $10k. You can fool others. You can fool yourself. But you can’t fool math or probability.

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enrico burzigotti
enrico burzigotti@enricoburz35673·
@Denistratos Thank you for all you have shared during past months here on X. A last question that Is not completly clear to me if you can answer: for ants like me with 25k to 50k to keep invested for 10 years what srtatosphere service fit better the already existing or the new One next year?
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Hawkeye
Hawkeye@hawkeye_jd_·
@Denistratos @diegodbz83 Awesome post! You are a mathematician, and I'm sure a terrific one at that, but you are also a great communicator - and the two don't often go hand in hand. You have a rare gift, very admirable. Love your approach!
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Denistratos@Denistratos·
OIH: 2008 vs now #OIH is still down ~72% from its 2008 peak. That’s not just a cycle – it’s a structural break. Oil services ≠ producers. This is the layer that sells equipment and services: #HAL, #SLB, #BKR. And they’re the ones that got hit the hardest. Continued ↓
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Re8uZ
Re8uZ@Re8uZ·
@Denistratos thanks for the insights you shared with us
GIF
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Juan Carlos Hernández Marín
Juan Carlos Hernández Marín@JuanCar40406185·
@Denistratos I will join Stratosphere soon, although I know I will not be able to follow all trades, especially options since my capital is patiently growing, I see this pathway as an opportunity to learn from the best of the best, I enjoy your posts and way of explaining your thoughts.
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