Neil Hornsby

@PFF_Steve It's the rugby chat, particularly the completely balanced and unemotional response to an Ireland (or Leinster) loss, that I'm here for.

I sure hope so

Friends and last-second gift seekers, a suggestion to grab my book “Football is a Numbers Game.” It is sorta about analytics but more about a group of football lovers who were trying to understand the sport better and ended up changing the game forever amazon.com/Football-Numbe…

@QBRating @SethWalder @PFF PFF use humans who, in most cases have been doing this for 5+ yrs. ESPN use algorithms based on GPS tracking data. Definition of "win" and "double team" are crucial. Why not pick a few games at random and look at the discrepancies on a play by play basis? Which is more accurate?

@SethWalder Sheldon Rankins has an 8.9% win rate according to @PFF, which is good for 60th amongst DI. What's the discrepancy here?

Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y), updated chart! Three big names at the top. (ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)

@PFF_Sam You mean just like he did for Rich Bisaccia?

Mark Davis is gonna hand Antonio Pierce a 6-year deal at half time

@BarryOC_ Would have been more impressive without the "are" but you did cover your bases by substituting 3 exclamation points for a question mark.

I better not jinx this but are this Denver Broncos team going to beat this Chiefs team!!! #BroncosCountry 🧡💙🧡💙

New #SelfPromotionTour podcast with PFF founder @PFF_Neil in which he explains how he became a football fan living in England, why he started PFF and details how the NFL shaped their grading system podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bon…

@mikerenner_ @LockedOnNetwork @austingayle_ Perhaps Austin could be your guest every week?

🚨excited to announce that like everyone else, I too now have a podcast! Renner Ranks will be a daily pod and part of the @LockedOnNetwork. Oh and it won't suck my first guest: @austingayle_ ⬇️ 🍎podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ren… 🎥@RennerRanks" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@RennerRanks 🟢open.spotify.com/show/4PfoWpoXm…

@MatthewColler Unfortunately, I don't think they'll need the guy who got Chris Hemsworth ready for Thor (anymore 🥺).

@PFF_Neil Hahaha I can see that one 😂 maybe he will need to put in a little time in the gym though

My book sitting next to Moneyball on Amazon’s sports industry book rankings is kinda funny

@MatthewColler @PFF_Steve Apparently Simon Pegg is pestering his agent about my role. 😐

@PFF_Neil Waiting on Hollywood to call about making the movie. I’m not sure we can get Brad Pitt to play you or anyone tall enough to portray @PFF_Steve

@PFF_Brad Brad. Is this just a volume stat? What is his % of throws short? Where does this rank?

Including the playoffs, Justin Herbert had 100 passing attempts on 3rd/4th down that did NOT reach or exceed the first down marker in 2022. That led the NFL. Chargers fans hope Kellen Moore changes that with Herbert's elite (and now expensive) arm talent.

@mibpj2 @JoeA_NFL I feel using EPA as a proxy for QB performance is similar to using yds/rush as a surrogate for running back play. Fundamentally, I don't think this is therefore "reasonable analysis". FWIW, I "think" play-calling/scheme is the biggest confounder but great analysis could disprove.

@PFF_Neil @JoeA_NFL I get that, but at a point you can't let it cripple you from doing reasonable analysis. Let's just take up the Herbert vs Burrow case here. If we're concerned that what we see here is driven by something other than QB quality of play, what does that argument for that look like?

Burrow is obviously elite, but in the past year the narrative is that he's 1. Separated himself as the best of 2020 class 2. Leap-frogged Josh Allen as QB2 3. Perhaps drawn even with Mahomes Can't help but wonder how much that is explained by: 1. Injury 2. Injury 3. Fan fiction

STOP trying to reinvent the wheel with creatine Creatine monohydrate will saturate muscle cells 100% with phosphocreatine You can’t get better than 100% It is the MOST TESTED & LEAST EXPENSIVE form of creatine Stop wasting your money on other silly forms of creatine

@mibpj2 @JoeA_NFL The more inferences you make, the more confounded the answer becomes and if someone (I'm not suggesting you) is already looking for evidence to justify their belief, then probably even more so. NB: "useless" is hyperbole.

@PFF_Neil @JoeA_NFL You could argue that of Allen, Burrow, and Herbert each has the best of either one aspect of supporting cast (scheme, pass catchers, offensive line) and each has the worst of one. Thats why I say its not GLARING differences and EPA/play doesn't become useless, as you suggested.

@dlGgSyeTaGaiN @PFF_Sam @austingayle_ Love LA to visit, but the idea of paying $1M for a box, preposterous taxes, keeping my kids out of school for 2 years and sitting in traffic for hours to get anywhere is a heavy price to pay for a bit of snow.

@PFF_Sam @austingayle_ would rather live in LA with death valley climate than cincinnati tbh

two guys walking around manhattan beach: guy: let’s go to health nut (a chain lunch place) guy 2: let’s get nutty in this bitch guy (singing): nutty in my balls both guys: *die laughing* I think this is what barbie was talking about.

How to lose fat according to body type Endomorph: calorie deficit Mesomorph: calorie deficit Ectomorph: calorie deficit

@mibpj2 @JoeA_NFL Well why spend time doing anything then? If you already know the answers it just seems like a waste of time. Self-justification is incredibly powerful in itself. If we REALLY wish to be scientific about this, we should use everything at our disposal against our bias.

@JoeA_NFL @PFF_Neil Definitely. If we're going to suggest that EPA is telling an misleading story here we'd have to plausibly that Burrow has it WORSE when it comes to the stuff EPA doesn't account for (supporting cast, scheme) yet the opposite is closer to the truth, especially last year.

@DougKyed Congratulations Doug...so happy for you.

More breaking news: I'm back on the beat! Today's my first day covering the Patriots for the Boston Herald. This is going to rule. bostonherald.com/2023/07/17/kye…

@mibpj2 Anything that removes as much of the confounding information as possible: quality of scheme, receivers , OL etc. EPA used to rate an individual will always be inaccurate as a result and most likely not fit for purpose when, say, differentiating among the top 5 QBs.

@PFF_Neil Not necessarily, but all the production-based stats are likely to paint a similar picture. Its also nice because we can get snap-by-snap data with EPA. What would you suggest is better? I'm guessing PFF grades?