Pedro H Dejneka

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Pedro H Dejneka

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

Papai & husband 1st! Founder/Partner @ MD Commodities. South America/World agricultural commodities & macroeconomics analysis - Basketball lover & Coach 🤙🏻

🇺🇸🇧🇷 Katılım Ağustos 2011
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
How did the Brazilian Agricultural revolution happen? Is the growth sustainable? Where are #soybean #corn production & exports headed? Much of what was said there - over 1yr ago - has already played out, i.e.: ✔️ “🇧🇷 will double 🇺🇸 soybean exports” You don’t want to miss it
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago

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Claudio Gianni
Claudio Gianni@ClaudioGianni·
Este analista revisa el escenario para el maíz safrinha brasileño. "Los recortes de producción en la región sur, actualmente entre 5 y 8 M t, podrían compensarse en gran medida con los aumentos en la región norte. Por cierto, el centro-norte está teniendo rindes propios de Iowa".
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago

SAFRINHA CORN 🇧🇷: Update Yes, there will be cuts to Safrinha However, production cuts in Southern Belt, currently between 5-8 MMTs, could be largely offset by gains in the north… Yields being achieved in the Center-North Belt are UNREAL! “Iowa corn” type stuff!   Result: TOTAL 🇧🇷 CORN: 133 - 138 MMTs Down from ~150-152 last yr (USDA and CONAB both waaaayy too low on last yrs numbers)   Worth noting that 134-138 MMTs would still qualify for a top 2 or top 3 largest crop ever in 🇧🇷!!!

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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
SAFRINHA CORN 🇧🇷: Update Yes, there will be cuts to Safrinha However, production cuts in Southern Belt, currently between 5-8 MMTs, could be largely offset by gains in the north… Yields being achieved in the Center-North Belt are UNREAL! “Iowa corn” type stuff!   Result: TOTAL 🇧🇷 CORN: 133 - 138 MMTs Down from ~150-152 last yr (USDA and CONAB both waaaayy too low on last yrs numbers)   Worth noting that 134-138 MMTs would still qualify for a top 2 or top 3 largest crop ever in 🇧🇷!!!
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Hoop Herald
Hoop Herald@TheHoopHerald·
Trainers are still teaching kids 700 dribble combo moves Meanwhile, Kon Knueppel is terrorizing the NBA as a 20 year old Rookie and barely dribbling
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Matt Hackenberg
Matt Hackenberg@CoachHackGO·
Comment "51" or RT for a free playbook of 51 backdoor sets I'll DM it right to you
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
🇧🇷 to TRIPLE 🇺🇸 SOY EXPORTS?!? Not yet, but soon… 🇧🇷 SOYBEANS $50 to $30/ton CHEAPER than 🇺🇸 beans into 🇨🇳 Any talk of “major” 🇨🇳 soy purchases from 🇺🇸 in “old crop” is pure “HOPIUM” 25/26 Soy Exports MMTs: - Brazil: ~115 - US: ~45 By 26/27 🇧🇷 COULD TRIPLE 🇺🇸 soy exports!!!
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
@E_Energy_Adams We diverge. These are short term gyrations and frankly, casual correlations Nothing to do with longer term fundamentals There’s just too many beans, too much meal and PLENTY of soy oil to go ‘round As I said in the post: “Funds trade PERCEPTION” 🤙🏼😉
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Andrew Johansen
Andrew Johansen@E_Energy_Adams·
@PHDChicago 4.50 diesel and 69 cent bean oil are out of whack. bean oil is cheap.
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
RECORD LENGTH in the SOYBEAN COMPLEX!!! ~ 430,000 net long position! Markets often trade PERCEPTION, despite how far from REALITY it may be How much longer can funds “run away from REALITY? No one knows… … but the SPECULATIVE rubber band is getting quite stretched.
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Claudio Gianni
Claudio Gianni@ClaudioGianni·
Fondos comprados en niveles récord en el complejo de la soja. "No habría un buen final para ellos. Reservas mundiales de soja por las nubes, las exportaciones de soja de EE. UU. nunca volverán a ser las mismas, el aceite de soja está sobrevalorado, se sembrará más soja este año".
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago

Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal): Funds RECORD LONG! Why this shall not end well for them, again... - Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH - US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day") - Soyoil story is overhyped - US soy are increase - etc... The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout

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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
@a8anto 🎯🎯🎯 corn feed number is completely out of touch with reality
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
🧵U.S. CORN EXPORTS ON A TEAR! 25/26 U.S. Corn exports to set a NEW RECORD, by far!!! US Corn Exports are on a tear!!! Should easily reach 87+ MMTs in 25/26!!! For reference, the US has only once exported over 70 MMTs, in 24/25 when it shipped 72. In 22/23, it shipped out only 42 MMTs. Hence, The U.S. should export over DOUBLE the corn it exported 3 years ago!!! While that is an incredible feat... ...it still won't be enough to prevent U.S. CORN STOCKS from likely reaching a new ALL TIME HIGH ~2.3+ bb or nearly 60 MMTs!!! here's why... 🧵
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
EPA / RVO / Soybean Oil / Meal / Soybeans Pay Attention⚠️ The "speculative elastic band" is extremely stretched, without any actual fundamental justification whatsoever Today's announcement brings nothing "new" to a market that "priced in" expectations well above REALITY
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago

Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal): Funds RECORD LONG! Why this shall not end well for them, again... - Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH - US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day") - Soyoil story is overhyped - US soy are increase - etc... The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout

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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
#1: U.S. farmers produced an INCREDIBLE 430+ MMTs of corn in 25/26!!! That was over 40 MMTs OVER the previous record ~390 MMTs!!! #2: FEED DEMAND is OVERSTATED by AT LEAST 10 MMTs! That's correct. The USDA has plugged in a feed demand # completely out of touch with reality So even though US 25/26 corn EXPORTS should be adjusted HIGHER by 3-5 MMTs... FEED DEMAND should be REDUCED by AT LEAST 10-12 MMTs, when it's all said and done Therefore, unless one believes there are MAJOR revisions for the 25/26 crop later in '26 (which is doubtful)... ... 25/26 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS should still hover ~2.3 - 2.4 bb or 58 - 61 MMTs, which would be a new ALL TIME HIGH! FWIW, that is a VERY LARGE STOCK CUSHION going into 26/27
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal): Funds RECORD LONG! Why this shall not end well for them, again... - Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH - US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day") - Soyoil story is overhyped - US soy are increase - etc... The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
🎯🎯🎯 I remember when the world was "going to run out of corn and wheat in 2022"... and in the 70's and 80's, 90's, etc... Like I mentioned in the post, IF the conflict lasts into "next year", ok, things get much more dicey... but short term, very little impact, especially given large carryover stocks...
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Paulina lescano
Paulina lescano@paulina_lescano·
@PHDChicago food crisis headlines sell . The picture is from a headline in may 22. We know what happens after with markets. Of course it will depend on the duration of the conflict, but! Even so, Russia and Ukraine have been at war for 4 years.
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Pedro H Dejneka
Pedro H Dejneka@PHDChicago·
🤦‍♂️Completely OUT of TOUCH headline and "analysis" That said, as always... the "FOOD CRISIS" headline sells We are incredibly FAR from "food crisis" scenario in CORN and WHEAT Now, if the conflicts lasts into next spring... that's a whole other discussion...
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