Pierre

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Pierre

Pierre

@PHfloor

Development planning expert | Decades in the uncomfortable trenches of demography, sociology, macroeconomics, housing policy & sustainable development | Charts

Katılım Haziran 2020
183 Takip Edilen2.3K Takipçiler
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Pierre
Pierre@PHfloor·
Housing starts swing wildly. Annoying I know. Linear trend always “up,” polynomial shows the cycle (better fit with data). Can we get to the mythical supply-sider green line where volatility is suppressed + more supply + more empty units...which presumably drives price⬇️?
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Chase Emmerson
Chase Emmerson@AZLandInvestor·
Flashback to Feb/March 2022: Russia's Ukraine invasion sent oil spiking (WTI ~$124 peak). Land dev’t budgets revised upward every meeting—asphalt, diesel for earthmovers, transport, PVC... I remember a contractor telling me that oil is linked to ~20% of land dev’t budget for 🏘️
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Andrew Coyne 🇺🇦🇮🇱🇬🇪🇲🇩
I’d take it up with Prof William Watson, the author of the piece, or the TD Bank economist who wrote the study on which he draws. People whose response to data that conflicts with their priors is “fake news” have a poor reputation as statistical interpreters.
Ben Rabidoux@BenRabidoux

@acoyne I would delete this. You’re a stats guy. You recognize fake news.

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DaVinci
DaVinci@BiancoDavinci·
Victorian jewel, Waterloo House, built in 1890, Melbourne Australia.
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Richard Dias
Richard Dias@RichardDias_CFA·
So many of Canada's social and economic problems are downstream of housing UNaffordability. May that Red Line fall.🙏
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Pierre
Pierre@PHfloor·
@UrbanHealthProf Existing housing is the cheapest housing. If public interest entities are smart, they would be looking into picking up distressed assets in the current environment with intentions for long-term holds. But that's just an opinion.
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Jim Dunn
Jim Dunn@UrbanHealthProf·
@PHfloor Yes, agree. I'm not confident about the *permanent* sub-market rental pool though. It would be way better with a social purpose investor and non-profit operation. We need to grow this capacity.
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Pierre
Pierre@PHfloor·
@UrbanHealthProf Despite the pathetic commentary from the real estate sales person, the strategy seems like a good one if the opportunity exists to pull units into a permanent below market rate rental pool. But this would come on the heels of market failure, not strategic market success.
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Pierre
Pierre@PHfloor·
@UrbanHealthProf Exit liquidity for developers that can't sell units so that they can transition capital into the production of more units in other projects that they definitely will be able to sell.😄 Because in the end, all developers want to do is drive home prices lower via excess supply.
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Pierre
Pierre@PHfloor·
Is Canada suffering from a housing shortage?
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Joel Strickland
Joel Strickland@joelspov·
@PHfloor @RichardAHaas be careful and sharp penciled when you build new homes .. know the cost of every single input, hard and soft. know the incomes in the area and what they can afford.
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