Ducking Hell

Nobody can truly figure out the future revenue forecast for $ASTS yet. Looking at future events, my assumptions are: Announce launch schedule: $70 Get 1st 5 satellites in the air: $100 1st quarter of revenue: $120 2nd GEO revenue start: $150 And then we should have data…

@AorakiTrading @SpaceX @thekookreport 🍻

$ASTS Has gained a lot of attention lately from the Bloomberg highlights and the @SpaceX IPO. If you are new to the #SpaceMob there are a trio of community leaders who are essential follows on X: @thekookreport The OG and master of DD, he gives up to date in-depth analysis. @spacanpanman The legend who is always running spaces to keep everyone informed on the latest happenings. @CatSE___ApeX___ The technical guru who gives industry specific insight to the latest news and filings. These are the guys who have been around for a long time and whose opinions and expertise you can trust. Welcome and enjoy the ride! 🚀🛰️

@YodaStockInvest NVDA comments…

What’s all this $NOW hype about??? Half of X calls it to 1T MC. Haven’t done any digging!

@Kateness8 You’re not that old!

55 burgers 55 fries 55 drinks This is where Tim Robinson from I Think You Should Leave eats

@usppdd @StockSavvyShay This is the issue. They dodged the question of whether they have reservations to get the remaining 38 up. We know of 9 out of 38. That’s not enough, particularly given the risk they have to address that BO could drop off 8 in the wrong place at once.

The management failed to lay out a clear launch schedule showing how they plan to get 45 satellites into orbit by the end of 2026. As of now, there is no clear path for them to make it happen, and that will likely put pressure on the stock. The stock price has been built on expectations, so the credibility of the management team plays a major role in the valuation... $ASTS

$ASTS is down ~10% because market wanted a major commercial announcement, a huge upside guide or a surprise acceleration after the stock had already run hard into earnings. I would call it a progress quarter that didn't match the stock’s short-term expectations but don't let the price action create a narrative that isn't there. The company reaffirmed its 45-satellite target by year-end 2026, confirmed BB 8, 9 &10 for mid-June launch, showed better manufacturing cadence with BlueBird 11-33 in advanced assembly, maintained ~$3.5B cash position, expanded launch optionality and added three new U.S. government awards.

@dqveed Beautiful is beautiful.

From a teenager to a 46 year old mother of 3 you sack of shit

@Kateness8 Wait. You’re old?

You know what’s punk as funk? Being old and having heart burn at a punk show

@megantisocial You have more creatures that would come down from the heavens to be your angel baby than you probably realize…

can’t. busy singing to my cat about how he came down from the heavens to be my angel baby.

@Kateness8 You’re there on a good day!

@PMccrenshaw It’s a really nice day! It smells like rocks and water and fresh air

Sioux Falls but she gets back up again

@jrouldz Did the accounting issues go away?

I have held the $TE bag through all volatility since making the initial entry end of last year once again a 2x position 🤷‍♂️ I am playing the long game here friends

@megantisocial I hope that’s a subtweet dipped in sarcasm…

guess i’ll be starting over.

@growthrapidly Is $SRTA a better choice now?

$TMDX My goal this weekend is to research TransMedics, stay up to date, and figure out what exactly went wrong after earnings. I used to own the stock last year and sold for a nice profit. Now the stock is down massively after earnings: >EPS missed badly ($0.30 vs. $0.62 expected) >Margins got crushed >Operating expenses surged from expansion/logistics investments Yet revenue still grew 21% YoY to $174M. The market clearly hated the quarter. But was the selloff justified, or is this becoming an opportunity? Who’s still holding or buying here?

@PK_Fund Why would they trust putting 5-8 satellites on a Blue Origin flight if they could all be put in the wrong orbit at once?

$ASTS 5 year bull with a genuine question. 1 launch every 1-2 months from here is one every 6 weeks. From here to the end of ‘26 that’s an optimistic ~5 launches. BO currently grounded. Falcon 9 can carry 3. Let’s say BO get clearance again and realistically we can stack and launch big batches (5?) by start of Q4 - I’m guessing around 20 BB2’s this year adding to BB6 so 21 sats by EOY. Not quite enough for full operational US Service in the US, not factoring in priority given to FirstNet and/or government use cases. Please add any thoughts or DD I may be missing.

@Kateness8 The best estimators are bestimators…

I saw a place hiring for estimators and I think I can probably do that

@StockSavvyShay Fantastic. They can get those next 32 up in 2028, I’m sure. On the timeline the y’ll tell us they always said they’d be on.

$ASTS confirmed a mid-June SpaceX Falcon 9 launch for BB-8, BB-9 and BB-10. The company also said 32 next-gen Block 2 satellites are now in advanced stages of assembly.

@BenJawanda And on their earnings call, they’re going to say that Bb8-10 will ship in August, just like they said it always would. And then they’ll say that they expect 30 satellites by the end of the year, just like they said they always said. And they’ll say they’re not behind.

$ASTS the investors thinking ‘supposed to have 5 by march and we have 0 by may’ Completely valid as an investor to see this and sell or re-position but; The company has advocated for this and said they plan to ship bb8 through bb10 in about 30days. Im not an FCC expert but I would imagine they wouldnt get full FCC approval if there were any indication of the company being unable to ever ship the satellites…? Im not stupid, nor are any of the much larger investors in $ASTS publicly on here- im sure everyone takes what management says less seriously now and thinks the ‘plan to’ means we get a ready to ship and shipment in june… Well unfortunately thats space and when a company is looking to grow into a FCF machine its kind of the price we have to pay to reap those rewards. You either think we start shipping batches soon and all the little flaws have been ironed out or you believe they will not ship anymore satellites and leave… Earnings could also pleasantly surprise us with defense contracts… this $60 pricing for $ASTS is far too low for its potential.

@HeeraniPK A management team shouldn’t be “optimistic.” They can’t get on earnings Dallas and say the delays are done and then the next announcement have more delays.

They aren’t lying. They are optimistic and space is difficult to operate in and sometimes timelines just slip away. I would prefer them to give under guidance and then over deliver but it is what it is. We got confidence from Peter back in 2024 that neutron will be launching in summer 2025 and then by year end and now Q1 2026, and then stage 2 failure has pushed it to end of this year, and we still have major tests ahead. Now compare these to blue origin’s development of New Glenn, they took a decade And now compare Elon’s ambitious timelines in SpaceX’s Mars and Moon visions and Tesla’s FSD and Robot and he has missed by 5-10 years. It happens. Things don’t go linear. We gotta stick on long term thesis.

There’s a moment in every deep-tech story when the narrative shifts. Not when the stock runs, not when retail discovers it, not when the FinX and Reddit go crazy, but when the company collides with reality. For $ASTS, that moment is now. Two years ago, in May 2024, $ASTS was trading below $5 at around $1b market cap because it was just a bold idea. The question was: “Can you connect a normal smartphone directly to space?” Today, that question is effectively answered. BlueWalker 3 proved the physics, real calls, real data, unmodified phones. First-gen BlueBirds validated scaling architecture. Next-gen satellites are massive (~2,400 sq ft arrays), pushing real bandwidth limits And most importantly: Tier-1 telco partnerships are locked in (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone) Regulatory unlock is happening - FCC approval for direct-to-device service in the U.S. This translated the bold idea from 2 years ago into now reality. The technology risk, the biggest existential question, is largely de-risked, not fully eliminated, but no longer THE core debate. The model is real… but fragile. The bull case is now clear: $ASTS is a real, space-based cellular network, not a satellite internet dish business, and it leverages existing telco distribution instead of building consumer demand from scratch for scaling, which translates into potentially billions of end users via roaming-like agreements. This is why the upside still feels absurd, but here’s the catch: This model only works at scale. And scale means one thing: Satellites. In orbit. On schedule. which is why the market bet on the stock in that manner in 2024 and 2025. Then came the BlueBird 7 reality check last month. BlueBird 7 launched on New Glenn, it reached space… but not the right orbit. The satellite is now expected to de-orbit and be lost. Financially, the insurance covers most of the cost, but operationally, it’s a delay, a cadence disruption, which has given a hard reminder to the market of how unforgiving space execution is. The market also discovered how flawless $RKLB is and the importance of comments from @Peter_J_Beck on execution with precision. Well, this didn’t break the thesis, but it reintroduced execution risk in a very real way, and the market is reflecting that ... about 50% down from ATH, and fears are everywhere. But it is times like these that you should remind yourself where we are and what is ahead. ✅ What is de-risked: 1. The core technology works, and direct-to-device from space is no longer hypothetical. 2. The Telco demand is validated. Major carriers are partners with a real stake in the game. 3. The regulatory pathway exists... FCC approval is a major milestone, but it died out due to the selling pressure from the BB-7 failure. 4. The unit economics directionally make sense ⁉️ What remains ahead: 1. The launch execution is extremely important. The BlueBird 7 proved this brutally. The market is pricing in the dependence on rockets you don’t control 2. The constellation's build speed matters. Targeting ~45 satellites by the end of 2026 requires near-perfect cadence. We are halfway through 2026, and we are not very close to the target. The next 12–24 months are EVERYTHING. $ASTS now has to execute a near-impossible checklist. Every 1–2 months launches are expected in the base case. Any more delays or slips compound quickly Shift toward SpaceX launches if you have to, but hit the “service threshold.” Put at least round ~25 satellites for meaningful coverage and bring in revenue on the balance sheet. 2024 and 2025 proved that $ASTS is no longer a “vision trade.” In 2026, it’s becoming an execution trade and execution trades are brutal because the upside is still massive but the margin for error is now tiny specially when the market is already pricing it for perfection. We have a $200+ stock with flawless execution... otherwise, I see flat money for 2026 year with more delays. 2027 and 2028 will be huge.

@BenJawanda @Reformed_Trader I don’t see how they can trust that they can put 6-8 satellites on Blue Origin at once, any time soon. Not just because of the 3 month shut down, but because they can’t risk having 6-8 satellites put in the wrong orbit all at once. It has to change the timelines.

$ASTS All ive been seeing is this and heres my thoughts to everyone who can spare a couple minutes… All my timeline is filled with : “space is unforgiving’ “Management is false” “Satellites cant be made” “We need large scale” “Amazon will catch up” “Delays are compounding” “2026 will be flat” “Re-rating to $30” “No service until 2028” “Market doubts launches” “Mgt has found serious flaws” The list goes on and on and on…; First of all. This is a high risk and high growth stock. You cant expect 100% moves to the upside without 50% moves down. The amount of MNOs this company has partnered with is absolutely unbelievable and is a MOAT no company will be able to replicate. Why? Because other MNOs want the same advantage as their peers. You dont think these multi-BILLION dollar corporations have done their DD and thoroughly coordinated with mgt to see the true capability of the tech? Do you honestly believe a company will take the time to file 3800+ patents for no reason? As ive said before- its taken longer than anyone anticipated for the batches to become ready BUT no space company has actually ever stuck to their guidance (pointing at Space X, BO and RKLB)… The fact of the matter is that if you believe this company is a dud and they wont get sats shipped then join the shorts … but WHEN these sats start rolling out after 8-10 things will move extremely fast. Can you tell me thats false? Weve seen how fast narrative can change in an INSTANT with Semis, Memory, Photonics etc… The same will happen with $ASTS As soon as the market starts seeing the production work as its planned to. In the grand scheme of things weve had 4 months of delays since theyve announced the stacking issue and since tested and maybe found a few other tweaks to polish out. The company is still growing, hiring and expanding production capabilities… Thats a sign of an adapting company not a collapsing one. Thats just my two cents. Take it as you please but to me the theory is valid. Yes you can complain about opportunity cost and missing the post Iran pump blah blah blah… Thats not how real investing works. You buy companies you wish to hold for the future and in this aspect why would you buy $ASTS for a quick flip when the real value comes when its PRINTING FCF? Thank you for your time. Ben Jawanda.

@sea_abh How can you trust the tech if management just lies about every deadline?

The hardest part of $ASTS isn't being right about the technology. It's not selling during the middle panel.

@hb_lon You’ll hear “we’ll have 30-45 satellites by the end of the year as our target, which is the same target we’ve always had and we’re on schedule. We fully expected to have zero satellites by month 5 this year, and we’ll be shipping BB8-10 in August, as expected.”

$ASTS Investors' sentiment is worsening as management continue to miss guidance. IMO, BB11 ~ 13 will be more critical than BB8~10, as they signal AST transition from initial deployment to large-scale production. I’d like to hear what’s their acutal laucnh target from earning call