
Joseph B
2.1K posts

Joseph B
@Packin_Sats
Research and Analysis Manager The Ainslie Group Bullion--Crypto--Wealth
Brisbane, QLD, Australia Katılım Eylül 2022
144 Takip Edilen433 Takipçiler
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Let's talk strategy
Why do I do 'short only' trades on Deribit using KingFisher's liquidity data?
It's not that I'm bearish Bitcoin, it's the low risk strategy.
Instead of using USDC/T as collateral, Deribit lets you use the underlying (BTC) as collateral. Why is this important?
1. When you're short BTC and price pumps against you:
• Your collateral value rises
• Margin buffer actually grows while unrealised PNL loses
• Liquidation risk drops hard (opposite of long positions where dumping shrinks margin fast)
2. As long as leverage stays sane (we keep it low), shorts can handle big adverse moves.
No hard stops needed — position size + manual management does the job. Survives volatility/fakeouts way better.
3. Funding rates. In pumping markets (most of the time, not recently), shorts get *paid* funding to anchor the price.
It adds up — extra yield while waiting for the dump. I estimate ~4-5% over a full market cycle. Bonus only though.
4. We hunt short setups via Kingfisher LiqMap optical_opti to increase the odds of being profitable.
PNL is paid out in BTC on Deribit.
5. Big Picture
Assume you have 100k in Bitcoin. Use 10% of that to trade volatility.
If you’re short only and the market moves against you, for every dollar you lose on the short, you make 9 dollars on the Bitcoin that is net long.
The 10% short is scaled into based on conviction.
NO NEED TO GO AGGRESSIVE STRAIGHT OUT THE GATE.
If you're into perps and short bias, Deribit has been clean for us.
Questions? Fire away 👇
#Bitcoin #Deribit #CryptoTrading #Kingfisher #StackSats #ShortOnly #CryptoStrategy #LiqMap
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Experts: these Bitcoin ETF investors are gonna get run away scared as soon as there’s a big selloff. I know things.
Boomers:

Nate Geraci@NateGeraci
Spot btc ETFs on a run… Inflows 10 out of past 11 days… +$2.4bil Flows now *positive* in 2026. Btc down 35% since hitting record high in early Oct. Spot btc ETFs over that time? Nearly $1bil *inflows*. ETF investors proving to be longer-term allocators. Diamond hands.
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@Packin_Sats Right on a major trend line. Be interesting to see if it puts in a reversal here

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There are times in trading where you get really unlucky. There are also times where you get really lucky.
Yesterday I saw weakness in CSL and Cochlear as structure changed, so I sold in the morning. My reason for being in the trade was no longer valid, so I exited.
Simple.
Then today it gaps down 37%.
Now I could sit here and make up some story about how I saw it coming and nailed the timing perfectly… but that would be complete nonsense. I just got lucky. I’ve also had it the other way. Held something and it gaps down through my stop. Bought something and it gaps up the next day. This is part of the game.
The key thing here is not the outcome, it’s the process.
If your reason for being in a trade is gone, you get out. That’s it. What happens after is out of your control. This is also why you never load up too heavily into one stock. You never know:
- what announcement is coming
- what news will drop
- what can wipe a position overnight
Manage risk. Respect invalidation. Don’t rewrite history to make yourself feel smarter. Sometimes you’re good. Sometimes you’re lucky.
Know the difference.

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Joseph B retweetledi

Bitcoin at $75,555. Gold at $4,832. Silver reclaiming $80. All three higher on the week. All three showing amber momentum candles for the second consecutive week. Consolidation, not conviction.
The bounce is mechanical. The MOVE Index collapsed from 115 to 66, reopening the collateral channel. The multiplier expanded. Nominal liquidity rose to $189.1 trillion. Risk appetite recovered to pre-conflict levels. On the surface, everything improved.
Beneath the surface, the Shadow Monetary Base contracted at -1.1% annualised. Every major central bank outside China weakened their contribution. The monthly GLI remains at 44.1 and falling. The cycle peaked Q3 2025 and is not projected to trough before 2027.
This is the distinction the market keeps missing. The level provides a floor. The rate of change provides the impulse. The floor held this week. The impulse did not.
open.substack.com/pub/tipperanal…

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Joseph B retweetledi

Joseph B retweetledi

How do you move gold on ships that can be boarded and seized? You verify it's real, custody it, transport it. For a $3 million toll payment, that's not happening.
With Bitcoin, you send it, wait for confirmation, and the ship is still hours from clearing the strait.
It probably won't happen exactly like that. But the fact it was even mentioned as an option tells you something about where we've come on this journey.
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Joseph B retweetledi

If you hate billionaires, go all the way, pussy.
Ditch the iPhone, the laptop, the tablet.
Get off the internet.
No Amazon, no big box stores, no Starbucks.
Grow your own food. Thrift your clothes. Walk everywhere.
And obviously no working for, buying from, or interacting with any company that scales beyond a farmers market.
Enjoy your abundance.
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@EmersonSayWhat @AmandiOnAir Always bringing up race and colour, you’re part of the problem Emily. Give yaself an uppercut
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@AmandiOnAir that we were sold these jews as white hip hop artists.. that was awesome?
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@simongerman600 Jingoistic crap. Australia no longer rides on the sheep’s back. Regional Australia is old, white and undereducated. It still lives in the 20thC, verges on a medical desert and is broke. The farms are depressed and financial catastrophes, the services non existent.
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Regional Australia is the backbone of the nation, yet it keeps losing ground. A quarter of Australians live outside the big cities, but population growth continues to concentrate in the capitals, leaving many regional towns stuck in a slow demographic squeeze. Young people leave, the population ages, and services become harder to sustain. In my latest column, I explore what it actually takes to grow a regional town again and why migration, jobs, housing, and connectivity all need to come together to make it work: thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/…
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@Zhaktronz @simongerman600 Probably because that’s where the food is grown and the commodities are mined.
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@simongerman600 How can you argue that regional Australia is the backbone of Australia yet only 25% of its population at the same time?
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Joseph B retweetledi

@notthreadguy Hello retard, when was the last time you sent millions of dollars to someone?
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🚨 NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani cuts the ribbon on the city’s first-ever ‘Outposted Therapeutic Housing Unit’ at Bellevue Hospital, luxury-level medical and mental health care… for the INCARCERATED!
“We stand here together opening this first-of-its-kind unit,” Mamdani declared proudly.
Because nothing says ‘progress’ like giving JAILED OFFENDERS luxury medical treatment while law-abiding taxpaying New Yorkers are STUCK waiting in line, AND footing the bill.
Welcome to the new priorities of the radically run Big Apple.
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Joseph B retweetledi

I have conducted what I believe to be the most in-depth interview that currently exists on the seismic disruptions in shipping caused by 2026 Iran War🚢
Not general macro but specific:
- rates
- routes
- vessels
- ports
- stocks
Not just in Middle East but worldwide. Airs tomorrow!
Apple shorturl.at/4qTqL
Spotify shorturl.at/Ods88
1/3

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