Parag

@1337hero @0xSero Sweet!

@Parag_Oilman @0xSero Did someone say 7900 XTX!!!

Hey AMD When will you have an RTX 6000 competitor? I tried the Mi300x on Hotaisle and absolutely loved it. I would love to help build out infra to pool your hardware with other hardware for faster and cheaper inference. Maybe work on some pruning/quantisation tooling.

@datarade Chief, there's more to life than international connectivity...

Connecting two airports with no strong base of international flights seems dumb, no?

@Smarto_Sneh @DanielSLoeb1 I do enjoy that the administration isn't indifferent to the markets.

@Smarto_Sneh @DanielSLoeb1 Lol, I just meant it in the "DOW at 50,000" chest beating jinx (a la Cramer) vein. I'm pretty apolitical otherwise.

This is correct. Iran can’t simply turn off its oil production due to issues of water encroaching its wells. From Claude: This is a well-known technical challenge in petroleum engineering. If Iran were to deliberately curtail or shut in production across its major fields, water infiltration (also called water influx or water encroachment) would be a serious and potentially irreversible problem. Here’s why: The Core Mechanics Most of Iran’s giant fields — Ahvaz, Gachsaran, Marun, Aghajari — are carbonate reservoirs under natural water drive. Aquifers underlying or flanking the reservoir rock are under pressure, and they push water upward into the pore space as oil is produced. When you stop producing oil, you remove the pressure sink that was keeping water at bay. The aquifer doesn’t stop — it keeps pushing. Specific Technical Problems 1. Water Coning and Cresting In vertical and horizontal wells respectively, shutting in production removes the drawdown that was managing the water-oil contact. When production resumes, the water-oil interface may have moved upward significantly, meaning wells that were previously clean producers now produce predominantly water. 2. Irreversible Aquifer Encroachment Carbonate reservoirs like Iran’s have highly heterogeneous permeability — fractures, vugs, and matrix. Water preferentially invades high-permeability channels (fractures) during a shut-in, bypassing oil in the matrix. This oil becomes residually trapped and is extremely difficult to recover later. The damage is often permanent. 3. Wellbore Flooding In wells that are shut in rather than properly killed, water can migrate up the wellbore itself, particularly in older or poorly-cemented completions. Resuming production from a water-filled wellbore requires costly workover operations and risks formation damage. 4. Pressure Redistribution and Cross-Flow In multi-zone completions (common in Iran’s stacked carbonate pays), shutting in causes pressure to equilibrate between zones. Water from a water-bearing zone can cross-flow into an oil-bearing zone downhole, contaminating it without any surface signal. 5. Reservoir Pressure Maintenance Complications Iran has been injecting water into many of its fields (e.g., via the NIOC EOR programs) specifically to maintain pressure and slow natural aquifer encroachment. A sudden shut-in disrupts the carefully managed injection/production balance, potentially causing localized pressure spikes or collapses that further destabilize the water-oil contact geometry. The Scale Problem Iran’s fields are among the largest and most complex carbonate systems in the world, some with very active aquifers. The Asmari and Bangestan formations have notoriously high natural water drive energy. Unlike sandstone reservoirs where water movement is relatively slow and predictable, fractured carbonates can see very rapid water breakthrough once the equilibrium is disturbed. Practical Consequence A prolonged shut-in — even of a few months — across major Iranian fields could permanently impair ultimate recovery factors, potentially stranding hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. This is why, even during sanctions regimes, Iran has tried to maintain at least minimum production levels rather than fully shutting fields in. The engineering cost of a cold shut-in followed by restart is enormous, and the reservoir damage may not become fully apparent until years later when water cuts rise to uneconomic levels. It’s a meaningful deterrent to any strategy that contemplates a clean “off switch” for Iranian production.

@statter_gg @DanielSLoeb1 I think that article gets most of it right. The midstream hysteresis stuff is directionally correct, but relevant duration to recovery will skew shorter.

@Parag_Oilman @DanielSLoeb1 Thanks, I guess you disagree with this view? fortune.com/2026/03/28/ira…

@mikeeisenberg @DanielSLoeb1 Too much work, this is X. Just ask Claude how it’s wrong :-P

@Parag_Oilman @DanielSLoeb1 Your job is safe from AI. Congrats!!! Now can we ask you to provide an explanation?

@DomBZee @DanielSLoeb1 Thank you for your opinion on my credentials. You’re welcome to verify how water drive reservoirs work or take a professional’s word for it.

You didn't point out how it is wrong, even in your other comments. You just made insults and flashed your credentials. This is what dumb people who think they are smart do. Then, on your profile, you are listing that you have an MBA. No one who is good at or passionate about engineering gets an MBA. It's a participation trophy you buy to get paid a higher salary you don't deserve.

@AndyTranLLC @raver_lance @DanielSLoeb1 It’s just plumbing.

@Parag_Oilman @raver_lance @DanielSLoeb1 Imagine this being true for the more modern facilities but are Iran’s oil systems outdated or not as sophisticated as the GCCs?

@Alpha_Ex_LLC @BigShartLLC I did, but two days too early. And almost had my face ripped off.

@BigShartLLC that was the trade...monetize the vol

here's why hedging $CAR was so difficult. the massive dump in the stock came about with the predictable huge decline in implied vol. below, a chart of the stock price, the May 200 put, and its implied vol. the vol had skyrocketed as the stock did. and then plummeted (by 100 vols) as the stock did. on 4/21, with the stock at 714, the put was worth $5. Two days later, with the stock down nearly $500, the put is up 18 dollars. it would have been worth twice as much had the vol held.

@Im_actuallyacat @DanielSLoeb1 Thanks cat for the AI slop.

Well congrats. You are both wrong. They mostly use gas not water injection. The SPE's Journal of Petroleum Technology ran a direct reservoir-engineering commentary on exactly this question after the 2020 COVID shut-ins. Their finding, drawing on the 2008–09 and 2014–16 downturns: two-thirds of shut-in wells resumed production, with most coming back stronger initially and long-term performance matching pre shut in trends. Their technical conclusion was that reservoir fundamentals counterbalance the negatives of long shut-ins, and minimal reservoir performance degradation should be expected for wells that weren't already damaged or pressure depleted. EOG's internal review of their own shut-in wells showed a production spike on reopening, which they took as evidence the reservoir suffered no damage. Cimarex's reservoir team concluded the obstacles to restart were mostly about speed and cost rather than any threat to the structural integrity of the rocks. A March 2026 petroleum engineering piece specifically on Middle East fieldwide shutdowns (in response to the current Iran situation) put it cleanly: a temporary shut-in usually hurts the flow path more than the reservoir, so oil companies lose money but the future potential of the field is not necessarily compromised.

@citrini got a lot of hate for their AI memo. But this seems to be right on schedule (along with the MSFT announcement today).

@raver_lance @DanielSLoeb1 *barring physical damage

@raver_lance @DanielSLoeb1 Battling any physical damage to facilities, wells can shut down and come back up most of the time without issues. Some wells are designed to continuously restart (ie stop-start multiple times a day)

@raver_lance @DanielSLoeb1 It's a problem from a supply-demand perspective. But the rest is uninformed hyperbole or Claude-speak.

oh no..

Yes!

Do you remember when you joined X? I do! #MyXAnniversary

why is this company running dick first into a brick wall